After releasing friendly policies and then waving the tariff stick, is Trump good or bad for the crypto market?

Author: Penny, rhythmic BlockBeats

Since Trump and his wife released their Meme coins, $Trump and $MELANIA, which attracted huge amounts of funds to participate, the currency circle has fallen into a state of liquidity depletion in a short period of time. On the other hand, the impact of the domestic AI model DeepSeek A series of negative news such as the abolition of the Bitcoin fiat status of sovereign countries and the imposition of tariffs by the United States have made the already sluggish market worse.

The biggest drop after the New Year was triggered by Trump's big stick in imposing tariffs.

Policy bound to the price of the currency? Highly sensitive crypto market

Trump's tariff collection policy is hitting the market violently. US President Trump signed a tariff order on February 1 local time, imposing an additional tariff of 25% on imported products from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada. It is tentatively set to take effect on the 4th. In addition, Trump signed an executive order on the 1st, which would impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from mainland China on the original basis.

The global risk market responded quickly to this, and cryptocurrencies were the first to be hit. On that day, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply from around $105,000, falling below the $100,000 mark, and even fell below $92,000 for a time, a drop of more than 7% within 24 hours. Ethereum once fell about 25%, to its lowest level since early September last year, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies also plunged, with a drop of more than 10%, which is an epic plunge.

On February 3, Trump said he reached an agreement with the Mexican president to immediately suspend the expected tariffs for one month. Bitcoin rebounded to $102,500 after the tariff policy was delayed, Ethereum rebounded to $2,923, and other mainstream currencies basically rebounded back to their prices before the plunge.

Jeff Park, head of strategy at Bitwise Alpha, said tariffs may be just a temporary tool, but in the long run, Bitcoin will not only go higher, but will go faster, because both parties in trade imbalance want Bitcoin, so ultimately The result is the same: higher prices and faster.

It can be said that the imposition of tariffs has caused a sharp decline in global stock markets, and accompanied by other negative news, the cryptocurrency market has also declined. The imposition of tariffs is not only a reshape of the international trade pattern, but also a heavy blow to the confidence of the global financial market. The currency circle has become the storm due to its emerging, high-risk, high returns and unfinished regulatory characteristics. One of the most sensitive areas also once again confirms that the cryptocurrency circle and global macroeconomic policies are becoming increasingly close.

Meme coins for blood-sucking market

On January 18, 2025, Trump announced the launch of his personal Meme currency $TRUMP on his social account. Once this coin was launched, it increased by more than 15,000% in just 12 hours, reaching around US$30, with a maximum market value of more than US$80 billion. Such an astonishing increase and huge market value quickly attracted a large amount of funds to influx. Many investors who originally invested in mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have successively sold off other currencies they held and turned to $TRUMP, except for SOL Other currencies other than the country have been sucked in large quantities in the short term, while other Meme coins, AI Agent tokens, etc. have fallen sharply across the board.

In addition, the issuing team of Trump coins holds up to 80% of the locked coins, which means they have extremely strong control over the price of the coins. After the lock-up period is gradually unlocked in the future, whether it is to directly smash the market on the exchange or to pledge it on the DeFi chain, it may have a huge impact on the market. At the same time, this behavior will further disrupt the market order of the currency circle, making it more difficult for other truly valuable cryptocurrency projects to obtain financial support, causing an imbalance in the entire currency circle ecosystem.

The blood-sucking effect brought by Trump's issuance of coins not only led to the unreasonable flow of funds in the currency circle in a short period of time, but also had a serious negative impact on the development of other cryptocurrency projects and the stability of the market, and gave the originally in full swing DeSci , DeFAI and AI Agent pressed the pause button, and according to the fast pace of cryptocurrency circles that speculate on new things rather than old things, these sectors will inevitably need greater driving force to regain their strength. Let the currency circle face more uncertainty and risks.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of BitMEX, believes that $TRUMP's surge to nearly $100 billion in full dilution valuation (FDV) in 24 hours is definitely a ridiculous market signal, and $TRUMP's surge signal. Similar to the advertising logo of FTX buying Major League Baseball referees during the 2021 bull market – it symbolizes the approach of the top of the market.

WLFI's confusing behavior after clearing the position

Arkham data shows that World Liberty Financial conducted a large-scale crypto asset transfer on the evening of February 3, with ETH holdings falling from around 66k on February 2 to 52, almost completely clearing its ETH assets, mainly flowing into Coinbase Prime deposits. address.

At the sensitive time of transferring assets, Trump's second son Eric Trump said on his social platform that now is the best time to increase his holdings of ETH (In my opinion, it's a great time to add ETH.). There is also a sentence at the end of the original version of the tweet, "You can thank me later."

The community questioned this. Some careful investors believed that ETH positions dropped from 66k to 66, with only one unit missing, which obviously wanted to avoid being discovered to transfer assets and then doubt whether there was a cabal to cut the leeks. WLFI explains this that these initiatives are designed to maintain a strong, secure and efficient financial system, and simply redistribute assets for ordinary business purposes and do not sell tokens. However, once the funds are transferred to Coinbase Prime, we have no way of knowing what they are used for. Investors can only analyze based on currency price fluctuations and subsequent WLFI asset operations.

Interestingly, on the morning of February 6, Eric publicly called for BTC and mentioned the family project WLFI, and the community jokingly said that it is "will it be time to sell Bitcoin next?" Maybe this is indeed a pre-shipment call, maybe it is to boost confidence in being suppressed by the tariffs, maybe it is just a routine publicity of family projects. After all, the call call and cx are the norm for these people.

Crypto Tsar, but also a crypto cut?

David Sacks, chairman of the crypto committee, was known as one of the founders of PayPal, and later became famous by creating Yammer and selling it to Microsoft for $1.2 billion. In the currency circle, David Sacks' most important identity is an investor in the crypto venture capital company Multicoin and the biggest Solana maker, known as the "crypto tsar."

Because $TRUMP is deployed on the solana chain and David Sacks was always silent about these "zero-sum Meme coins" when Trump issued $TRUMP coins, many people believe that the chairman of the crypto committee must be involved. in.

Another evidence is that David Sacks has a "criminal record". In March 2024, David Sacks posted about Memecoin $Sacks, his own name.

Although he tweeted nine times when people started buying, he told them not to buy it, it confirmed the evidence that he had "had sent coins" and it was exactly the same as the method of issuing $TRUMP coins. (According to community members, David Sacks recently deleted his own post about $Sacks.)

This made many people dislike David Sacks, thinking that his method was too eager for quick success and instant benefits, and too eager to seek benefits through this radical method. Even if Sacks is not directly involved, he is responsible for the incident as chairman of the crypto committee. There are even rumors that some people suggest that the entire David Sacks crypto committee leadership team should be replaced to create a new team.

On February 5, David Sacks reiterated at a press conference held at 3:30 Beijing time that it will "clear the crypto regulatory framework", "ensure crypto innovation happens in the United States", "create the golden age of digital assets", etc. Work objectives, but no new (or specific) content has been announced. When it comes to establishing Bitcoin reserves, David Sacks also used the less affirmative word "evaluate" (previously the US government used the word "evaluate" when it had to deal with this problem but did not want to solve it. Come and practice Tai Chi). Perhaps due to the failure of market expectations by the press conference "no positive news" and Bitcoin fell back below $99,000, falling to $96,147.

Is it a real Builder, or a bigger sickle?

Looking back at Trump's behavior over the years, his attitude towards cryptocurrency issues has changed very clearly. During his last term, he publicly stated that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin were "scam", but now he promised to make the United States the world's "cryptocurrency capital" and "bitcoin superpower", and also formed a cryptocurrency group to establish Family Defi project, lifting restrictions on new token sales and strengthening ties between cryptocurrency companies and other traditional financial companies.

There may be many reasons behind Trump's change in attitude. On the one hand, the cryptocurrency market has developed rapidly in recent years, with a huge investor group and huge economic influence. Treasury this part of the force will help increase his political support; on the other hand, there are strong interests behind the cryptocurrency industry. Groups, these groups may exert influence on Trump through political donations and other means, prompting him to introduce policies that are conducive to the development of cryptocurrencies. In addition, Bitcoin can be regarded as a tool to hedge against the shaky status of the US dollar. Trump’s inclusion of it in national strategic reserves is also a means to attract capital inflows and maintain the hegemony of the US dollar.

As the election results come to fruition, Trump's every move has gradually become a weather vane for hot spots in the currency circle. Especially before taking office, Trump issued his own Meme coins, which caused the madness of countless investors inside and outside the circle and created many phenomenal myths of getting rich. I thought this was the beginning of a bull market, but then the issuance of $MELANIA tokens This fantasy was broken again, making the market calm down and doubt the purpose of issuing coins. The AI ​​Agent, which was in full swing, was sucked by $TRUMP and $MELANIA, and was hit by deepseek, and has been sluggish. Although Meme's fanaticism continues, the highest market value of a large number of tokens continues to shrink, and the time to return to zero is constantly shortening. Mainstream coins continue to fall after the carnival. We can't help but think about the purpose of Trump's pro-crypto encryption is true. Want to be a Builder, or do you want to make the most profit for its interest groups and the hegemony of the United States during your term, fishing out the waters, and finally leaving a place to wander?

In the short term, the market will inevitably experience a surge and plummet to digest various major trends, but long-term value growth and industry precipitation require not only policy benefits, but a two-way game between the market and politicians. Judging from his series of commitments and statements, it seems that he is actively supporting cryptocurrencies. However, the huge changes in his past remarks and positions are difficult to completely convince. Will he really spare no effort to promote the development of cryptocurrencies and make the United States a paradise for cryptocurrencies? Will the favorable policies that Trump promised after he came to power, which are characterized by "unexpectedness", be implemented, or is it all just superficial articles made to gain political interests? These questions are full of uncertainty.

For investors in the currency circle, Trump’s current attitude and policy direction are like a double-edged sword. If he can really fulfill his promise and create a relaxed and friendly development environment for cryptocurrencies, then the currency circle is likely to usher in a new round of prosperity; but after Trump took office, he frequently sanctioned other countries, and he and his family members were human The criticized businessman's style, the conflicts and divisions within their teams, will also aggravate the instability of global economic and political, leading to the unpredictable crypto policies. This instability will cause investors to panic and spread cryptocurrency. The market has a negative impact.

It can be said that Trump's tariff imposition is just the beginning of his impact on the currency circle after he took office. In the future, with the advancement and implementation of various policies in economic and diplomatic aspects, the currency circle is likely to face more severe fluctuations. In such an environment, investors need to pay close attention to policy trends and make investment decisions more cautiously.

The bigger the wind and waves, the bigger the fish. No matter what unknown there is, this encrypted ship has set sail and is ready to welcome the stormy waves.