Alliance DAO founder talk: Solana will eventually win, Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) may become a new ETF moment

Organize & compile: Shenchao TechFlow

Guests: Imran Khan, founder of Alliance DAO; Qiao Wang, founder of Alliance DAO

Podcast source : Good Game Podcast

Original title : On Consumer Crypto | EP 70

Broadcast date : February 7, 2025

Background information

Imran and Qiao joined Tensor’s Iljia and Richard for an in-depth exchange, exploring consumer-facing cryptocurrencies and other related topics, bringing entrepreneurs direct-to-core cryptocurrency insights.

The main topics are as follows:

• Market Analysis

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is in progress - David Bailey

• The profound impact of government policies on the economy

• Popularity of AI and forecasting of future trends

• Vine & JellyJelly

• Future prospects for tokenization in startups

• Clout and Tribe

• Tensor Team: Richard and Ilja’s idea

• Tokenization strategy as market entry point

• The combination of Memecoin and attention economy

• Current status of Vector's scale growth

• Qiao's annual experiment sharing

• Trends for developers to move from Ethereum to Solana

• Analysis of user portraits on different blockchains

• The final form of blockchain technology

• Coinbase’s strategic layout

• Discussion on "Blast should be Hyperliquid"

Market Analysis

Imran : There has been a lot of things to watch in recent weeks. In the past month, the market has shown a continuous downward trend overall, and I think our sentiment is highly consistent with the performance of the market.

Qiao : The market does seem a bit weak.

Imran : Overall, the market is digesting the impact of the major news released by Trump and the subsequent liquidity injection. As for the short-term trend of the market, I cannot make a clear judgment, but in the medium and long term, I am still optimistic about the market.

Qiao : I think the market may maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. In fact, there has been a lot of good news in the past two weeks, such as executive orders supporting cryptocurrencies, the abolition of SAB bills, the promotion of the stablecoin bill, and some policy speeches on cryptocurrencies, etc. However, despite so much positive news, the market has barely responded. This situation reflects the market's relatively cold response to these positive news. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, I think the overall economic situation is still good.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is in progress

Qiao: David Bailey mentioned that the current performance of the market is misleading. He wrote in a tweet that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) program is moving forward at today’s press conference. This is a priority led by DJT. They are calling up top state officials and plan to develop a complete plan within the next 80 days. It is worth noting that half of the members of the Working Group are people who have achieved great success in related fields. The SBR plan is being implemented gradually. If SBR is really implemented within the next 80 days, then the current market pricing for it will obviously be seriously underestimated. This potential impact cannot be fully reflected through the existing market mechanism.

Qiao: This reminds me of the launch of Bitcoin ETFs . At that time, many people thought that Bitcoin ETF was negative news and suggested selling it. But the fact is completely opposite. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs actually opened a new door for financial institutions and traditional investors to enter the Bitcoin market, especially those from traditional finance and older investors, right?

The situation with SBR is very similar. If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Program can be implemented successfully, this will mark formal participation at the government level. Not only the U.S. federal government, but also state governments, and even other countries, may choose to work with the U.S., or at least try to keep up with this trend. In this way, a new batch of net Bitcoin buyers will appear in the market, and these buyers are currently completely absent from the market. At the same time, the trends of sovereign wealth funds are also worthy of attention, as they may become important forces driving this trend.

Imran: In addition, the Trump administration is planning to create a sovereign wealth fund. It is reported that the fund will be run by Cantor Fitzgerald's Lutnik, who himself has huge investments in the cryptocurrency field, especially Bitcoin. Things could be very interesting if he was involved and led this sovereign fund.

From my point of view, the market is currently a bit confusing. We just experienced a huge meme bubble, and Bitcoin hit an all-time high, but at the same time, these extremely optimistic news came out and the market seemed to be difficult to react clearly to this information.

Qiao: I don't think the market is really confused. But the market has already reflected most of the positive news in the price.

If the SBR plan is really implemented, we will see a sharp rise in the market. But until then, I think the market may remain sluggish for a while.

Imran: I understand, this should have a result in 80 days, right? They should announce the relevant news within 80 days. So I think the current market downturn will improve soon.

Qiao: However, for those who rely on OPM (Other People's Money, other people's money), Standard Bank ($870 billion in assets under management) has predicted that Bitcoin could soar before the end of Trump's presidency to $500,000. What do you think? $500,000? $500,000 is almost one-third of the total market value of gold, or even more than half of the market value of gold.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin really rose to $500,000. Instead, the price of gold may decline to some extent as the funds may flow from gold to Bitcoin.

Imran: Have you seen how gold perform today or yesterday? What do you think drives this? Do you think it 's just an uncertainty about global tariffs?

Qiao: Gold is a record high. I feel mainly because of the huge uncertainty surrounding Trump. During Trump's first term in office, it can almost be described as "chaotic". He waged a trade war with all countries, including the United States' allies. Gold is not only a tool to hedge chaos, but it is also used to hedge the huge U.S. debt risks.

The profound impact of government policies on the economy

Imran: I did some simple calculations. The U.S. government expects to reduce its fiscal deficit by about $1 trillion a year. The current annual deficit in the United States is about $2 trillion. If it can really reduce by 1 trillion yuan, the country's fiscal deficit will gradually decline in the long run, which will have a profound impact on interest rates and inflation, and this is even if the Federal Reserve does not intervene directly.

Qiao: And the Fed may be rethinking their strategy because all these effects of the government will change the rate cuts they have.

"I'm glad Powell didn't cut interest rates" - Trump

Imran: Trump’s attitude changes recently are also very interesting. A few days ago, he also tweeted that Powell needed to cut interest rates immediately, and even said, "No matter what, he must cut interest rates." But a few days later, he tweeted again: " I'm glad Powell did not cut interest rates, and I respect his decision very much." This change in attitude is really intriguing, but I'm not sure what the deep meaning is behind it.

Qiao: In the short term, a decrease in government spending may bring deflationary pressure because it actually takes away a portion of the money from the economy. Government spending is an important part of the economy, which is basic common sense in macroeconomics. But at the same time, tariff policies will bring inflationary pressure. If they resume tariffs, it will undoubtedly drive inflation.

Imran: I think this is more of a negotiation strategy for Trump. He also used similar measures in 2017, forcing the parties to renegotiate the agreement. To him, these news is just tools. He won 20,000 law enforcement officers from the Mexican government to strengthen border control, which could theoretically reduce the inflow of drugs and illegal immigrants. Now another 10,000 law enforcement officers from Canada are deployed on the Washington border. At the same time, I also saw news reports that drug smuggling management in Canada is relatively weak, and many drug cartels have reorganized in Canada and transported drugs to the United States through channels there. These measures are undoubtedly beneficial to the US economy. So, I think Trump 's goal is always to reach his deal by putting pressure on it.

He imposed tariffs on China, and China said, "We will also impose tariffs on you." Therefore, the US Post has stopped providing services to platforms such as Temu and companies like Alibaba. This caused the shares of these companies to fall by 2% to 5% respectively. In my opinion, Trump is just using these means to force the other party to act according to his request. Although this strategy may cause market volatility in the short term, in the long run, it can often achieve its goals.

Qiao: I don’t recommend that you trade based on these short-term news. No one can really grasp the advantages of this information except Trump’s core circle.

Popularity of AI and forecasting of future trends

Imran: I think that in the future, almost every startup will use encryption and AI in some form. These technologies may be embedded in products in various ways, so companies no longer need to emphasize that they are “crypto startups” or “AI startups.”它们只会被称为“初创公司”，而这些技术将成为产品的核心功能之一。 This trend also opens up more possibilities for startups to innovate in AI and crypto. In fact, many of the startup applications we receive do not even involve encryption at all, but focus on AI.

What do you think is driving this phenomenon? I read an application a few days ago and someone said, "Although we are an AI startup, I saw some potential applications for encryption and wanted to try and explore it." He had no idea about encryption, but still wanted to try it, This made me very interesting. This seems to validate our point: Every startup will find that encryption and AI are ultimately just one feature in their core products.

Qiao: In the past two years, many people have tried to predict the fusion of AI and encryption, but many of the ideas seem far-fetched. For example, some people hope to use encryption technology to train AI, or use AI to solve some problems in the encryption field, but these attempts do not have much practical significance. I think the more realistic situation is that people will develop some products, use large language models (LLMs) in some functions, and introduce encryption in others. This integration is natural, and the technology will be hidden in the backend, and the end user doesn't even need to know the existence of these features. They just need to enjoy a better user experience without knowing whether the product is AI-powered or encryption-powered.

Imran: There are two mainstream views on AI. One believes that AI will become authoritative like China, and the other believes that AI will completely replace human work. But in reality, no one has really considered the intermediate path: how AI can improve our efficiency and optimize our business model in daily life . Similarly, technologies such as AI and encryption will gradually become part of product features rather than separate selling points. They will increase the user experience tenfold, but users don't even need to know the existence of technology. This trend made me realize that we don’t need to deliberately distinguish between “crypto startups” or “AI startups”, their essence is a tool to increase productivity. People always tend to go to extremes, but in fact, the future is more likely to be in between.

DeepSeek

Imran： 几个月前，DeepSeek 刚推出时我们就讨论过它的潜在影响。 But recent news has attracted more attention, such as their claim to have completed a project with just $6 million. However, different people have a lot of differences in their views on this matter. Some people think that this is simply impossible with just $6 million, and there may be more resources behind DeepSeek.

Qiao: Anyway, one thing is clear, that is, the cost of inference and model training of AI is falling rapidly. This is good news for application layer development.

在加密货币领域也有类似的趋势。 We have noticed that as infrastructure costs drop, the crypto industry is gradually shifting from infrastructure to application.

Because, in both AI and cryptocurrency, the cost reduction of infrastructure is driving innovation at more applications.

Talk about the recent Vine & JellyJelly

Imran: Vine and JellyJelly are two of the most interesting things that have happened recently. This also proves once again the potential of tokenization, which may become an important opportunity in the crypto field in the future. I call it "application token" or Meme, these are all subdivision types of tokens

There are two interesting stories recently. The first is that after Trump launched his personal token, people began to regard tokenization as a novel marketing method. The founder of Vine sold Vine to Twitter in 2018 for $30 million.

Elon Musk has been on Twitter for years discussing whether to restart Vine, and a related vote is initiated every few months. Recently, an external team at Vine launched a token project with the theme of “Get Vine Back.” Under their plan, 5% of the supply of Vine tokens will be donated to Twitter. If Vine can successfully return, there are currently more than 145,000 token holders. Since the project started, they have rekindled interest in Vine through the spreading effect of Meme culture and tokens.

Even more interestingly, Vine’s social media campaigns and private Twitter groups have begun to form a “community energy.” For example, someone would doodle Vine's logo on the street, or print Vine's logo and paste it on the wall. This phenomenon is driving Vine's return. I think this case is very interesting.

Use app tokens for advertising spending

Imran: I think tokens, or application tokens, can essentially be regarded as an advertising expenditure. As more and more people become interested in it, this phenomenon may be related to who the founder is or other factors. Through tokens, you can attract users and even occupy a certain psychological market share. In my opinion, there is a correspondence between advertising spending and virality. Meme is a form of tokens, and applying tokens is more like a tool to drive virality. Behind this may also involve a concept similar to "user acquisition funnel". JellyJelly’s team has tried similar methods.

JellyJelly

Qiao: JellyJelly How is their token issuance?

Every time they launch the token, I sleep. They always release at 9pm and I have a habit of turning off all screens two hours before bed.所以每次都错过了。 Trump tokens are at nine pm, Vine’s tokens are at nine pm, JellyJelly’s tokens are at nine pm, I may have missed about eight-digit gains.

Imran： 这些只是正在发生的实验，我认为未来会变得更好，随着时间的推移会不断改善。

Qiao： 现在大家的消费习惯已经发生了变化。 Issuing tokens has become very common, and it is no longer surprising that anyone launches tokens, and it all started with the launch of $TRUMP.

Future prospects for tokenization in startups

Imran: I think that in the future, almost all startups will use tokens, which can be used as a means of self-financing and to acquire users. This is my judgment on future trends. I've discussed this issue with a lot of people on Twitter, and some people don't agree with me.

They always say, “Oh, that won’t work.” And his extreme supporters will crazily like his tweets. This is completely different from the previous world, and I can understand that this change is unacceptable. Obviously, these innovations may happen on some blockchains you don’t like. But because of this, this is the real soil for innovation.

Clout and Tribe

Imran: We talked about startups and application tokens before, and now let’s talk about Clout and Tribe. I think the philosophy of Creator Token is similar, with the core assumption that it is: the cost of gaining followers is very low. You can easily attract a large number of followers. But the question is, are people willing to pay for "social capital"? That is, in an environment where followers are flooded, can social capital become a measure of whether a person is truly influential?

We are currently trying two completely different experiments. One is a more user-friendly platform where anyone can easily buy and hold tokens, with simple operation and low threshold. Another is more crypto-oriented , providing a new way to interact with creators. For example, users can participate in the live broadcast of creators through tokens, interact with them in real time, and can also support creators through subscription mode. Therefore, these two experiments represent two different experiences we are exploring.

The views of Tensor team members

Imran: I think this is exactly the trend that is happening in the entire speculative crypto market at present. In the token space, the Tensor team has many unique insights in consumer transactions, especially. Today we invited two founders of Tensor and Vector, Richard and Ilja, to share their thoughts.

Consensus mechanism and the development direction of Vector

Imran: What do you think about the consensus mechanism? What is the current product direction?

Richard: Our team has created a very excellent mobile native trading experience for Meme. We can say that we were one of the first teams to try this model. Projects like Moonshot are also an example worth mentioning. Now, more and more teams realize that it is feasible to build a high-quality transaction experience on the mobile side, such as integrating wallet functions directly into the application. The user's logical deduction is: Can all these professional Meme trading functions be moved to mobile phones? These platforms provide complex statistics and transaction charts. In other words, we can achieve a Tensor-like experience on mobile, but focus on Memes.

However, starting from the "first principle", we need to think about one question: Will professional traders really choose to complete complex transactions on the mobile side? It may, but from historical experience, mobile devices are more suitable for scenarios that require quick operation anytime, anywhere. For example, someone might quickly complete a transaction on a train, between work, or during breaks, rather than staring at the screen for four or five hours of in-depth operations like on the desktop. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, we believe that the goal of the mobile terminal is not to provide professional-level trading functions, but to create a more accessible and more suitable trading experience for retail users. At the same time, we will also consider developing desktop applications to enable seamless connection between the two.

At present, the professional trading market on the desktop has become a "red ocean". There are many teams developing almost identical products, and the competition is very fierce. So we decided to prioritize the mobile products of retail investors and then gradually consider the development of desktop. We also intend to avoid adding professional functions directly according to user feedback, but instead hope to provide users with some new experiences to make them realize that these functions are unique to mobile. For example, mobile devices can realize real-time reminders or quickly copy transactions and other functions by pushing notifications, which cannot be done on the desktop. This is exactly the differentiated experience we hope to create in mobile native applications.

Photon

Imran: I think Photon is very good. You also provide features like Meme Scope, allowing users to get started with some upcoming token projects. I noticed that users like to share trading ideas and interact with each other through the platform. 你们如何看待这些市场之间的差异？你们的目标是将产品更倾向于普通消费者之间的社交互动，还是专注于专业交易者的需求？ How do you balance these directions?

Ilja: Trading is a very complex and multi-dimensional "game", which is also its charm. The more complex the game is, the greater the challenge, the more fun it is. Different users will participate in this "game" in different ways. This is an important understanding when we develop the second trading product.

When we entered the NFT field, we found that most people were participating in trading in a single way. Therefore, we have developed a series of professional tools to help users participate in more diverse ways. And in this new product, we are almost in the opposite direction. In the past, we were accustomed to participating in Meme token trading through quantitative analysis and professional tools, and we hope to introduce a new way of playing - an interactive experience based on social signals.

vector.fun

Ilja: Excellent startups tend to change the industry landscape by redefining the market, rather than simply competing with existing companies.它们会告诉用户，过去你们所关注的东西已经变得无关紧要了。

For Vector, the same is true for our goals. We are not simply telling users to use Vector, because it can provide faster and more efficient trading tools. Instead, we want to tell you that fast trading tools are no longer so important. We make this all irrelevant by providing richer signals, more interesting content, and experiences that can be consumed anytime, anywhere. For example, you can quickly browse and participate in transactions on the bus or even in the bathroom. This experience may not have a ready-made market, it may not be interested in anyone, and it may even be a bad idea. But we believe that only by trying will you know the answer. Judging from current user feedback, we have indeed discovered some demands.

Users do like to share their transaction results with others through a "broadcast" method. This is also the core concept of Vector. Just as the core of Twitter is to let users tweet, the core of Vector is to let users share transaction dynamics.

Richard: For example, someone shared a deal saying they made $2 million today. The transaction was completed through a token launched by the Pump Fun platform. The developers actually completed their first deal on Vector, almost in the form of an ad. They may not be sure of the future of the project, but they decided to buy the tokens for their project for $500. If the project succeeds, this will be a viral case. In fact, this is exactly what happened. Users took screenshots and shared the results of the transaction. Therefore, developers used the Vector platform to promote the project effectively, and once the project is successful, it will attract widespread attention.

Vine and JellyJelly

Qiao: What do you think of Vine and JellyJelly? The two tokens attracted a lot of attention when they were first launched, and the prices soared rapidly, but then fell rapidly. What do you think we can learn from it?

Imran: JellyJelly's popularity has gradually faded, while Vine's performance is relatively good.

Qiao: Vine's price trend is relatively stable, while JellyJelly is like a Christmas tree.

Richard: It's really fun. I feel like we are going through a shift in our mindset, especially in the way we look at assets. In traditional financial markets, such as the U.S. stock market, there are about 30,000 stocks available for trading, plus some bonds and other assets. In the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi), although some assets are limited, it is becoming increasingly difficult to launch a token with sufficient liquidity. On a platform like Pump Fun, there may be only about 100 tokens that most people really pay attention to. However, through the mechanism of "bond curve", the market has opened a "flood gate" of token issuance, and new tokens can be launched almost without restrictions.

This also means we need to look at these tokens in a completely new way. The speculation cycle of each token may be very short, but similar opportunities will continue to emerge, accompanied by different asset types. Therefore, instead of holding a certain asset for a long time (such as Bitcoin or Solana), it is better to switch flexibly between different assets.

Tokenization strategy as market entry point

Imran: Some people in the non-crypto field are entering the crypto market by issuing tokens . It can be said that this has almost become a new marketing strategy - to attract attention and gain users through tokens. For example, the founder of Vine launched a token to attract interest from the Twitter team to redevelop the Vine client. Some people even painted Vine's logo on the wall in New York to express their expectations for Vine's return. By contrast, JellyJelly tried to go a similar approach, but I think there might be some problems with their distribution strategy.

Qiao: What is the specific problem? If it were you, how would you improve it?

Imran: I think the problem is that everyone is pouring into the market at the same time, resulting in a high degree of speculative bubble in a short period of time. In such an environment, it is difficult for projects to get rid of this hype atmosphere, and it is necessary to work to establish a more organic and sustainable growth model, which is a problem that needs to be faced.

Another problem is the so-called "sniper". These people will rush tokens in large quantities within the first few minutes of the token being launched, accounting for 5% to 10% of the total, and then sell them quickly. Almost all token issuances will face such challenges.

However, from another perspective, this may not be unacceptable. Those short-term speculators will eventually exit the market, while long-term investors who truly believe in the project vision will stay.

More importantly, this phenomenon shows that by issuing tokens, an application can quickly attract market attention and users without relying on traditional PR activities, media coverage or venture capital support. Just launching a token can trigger topics and then use this popularity to build a community.

When I first heard about Vine’s tokens, I thought it might be a scam because it had a market capitalization of only about $1 million at the time. But then I saw Vine’s founder Russ posting a video proving his identity. Since then, the community has taken over the project and now there is a group of over 8,000 Vine enthusiasts discussing the future of Vine every day.

The future of tokenization

Imran: I think we are entering a whole new era – almost everything in the future will be tokenized.

Qiao: Yes, for example, Ondo they are tokenizing stocks, bonds, etc.

Imran: They are building a platform that allows anyone to tokenize stocks, bonds and ETFs. With the change of the policy environment, the process of tokenization is accelerating.

Iljia: Looking back at early blog posts in the crypto field, the initial discussion actually focused on two points: First, you can own assets through decentralized methods, which was not possible before; Second, tokens can be used Start the network.

But it should be noted that the network not only means liquidity, but also attention. When you start, you may have nothing to do and need to push a bilateral market, such as on the Vector platform, with callers on one side and traders on the other. At this time, tokens become an excellent tool to incentivize cold start of the network. It can bring motivation and popularity, attract users' attention, and promote the formation of network effects. If you can create a truly popular product, users will naturally stay.

I also noticed an interesting phenomenon. In the past few years, due to policy regulation, many people believe that the only purpose of tokens is as a security or asset. This leads us to almost forget the original intention of tokens – they are not to be securities, but to help start the network.

Now, with the changing policy environment, some smart entrepreneurs have begun to re-recognize this and use tokens to build brand new products. I believe that this trend will become more and more obvious in the next two or three years, and tokens will be everywhere.

Two main tokenization models

Richard: I think there are two main tokenization models that can be seen at the moment. The first is tokenization of traditional financial instruments, such as converting equity or future cash flow into token forms, which is closer to securitization. Another is to tokenize real World Assets (RWAs) , such as digitizing real assets or commodities through blockchain.

However, recently we have seen a new trend, namely meme. The value of this type of token is mainly driven by supply and demand relationships and market consensus. In other words, people buy these tokens because they believe others will buy them too, thus pushing up prices. This model is very reasonable in a bull market because there is a large amount of capital flow in the market and investors want to make profits through speculation. But I wonder whether these attention-based tokens can survive multiple market cycles, especially in bear markets, whether they can still attract investors' attention, or just exist as a short-term speculative tool.

The combination of Memecoin and attention economy

Qiao: In fact, attention assets are not a new concept, they have appeared in multiple market cycles. For example, in the early days, the dyed coins on Bitcoin could be regarded as a form of attention assets. Similar ideas have been around for more than a decade. In the last market cycle, NFTs became mainstream, and these are basically attention assets. And now, what we see is the rise of memecoin. Although these tokens have different names, they are essentially attention assets, but they are manifested in different forms. If we had a blockchain that was cheap enough and efficient in the previous cycle, memecoin might become the dominant form, rather than other speculative tools. So unless a new token form appears in the next cycle to carry attention, I think the popularity of memecoin will continue.

Richard: We are very optimistic about the future of attention assets, which is also the core concept of our construction of the Vector platform. We observe the development trend from NFT to memecoin, these tokens reflect the sentiment and state of the market. They perform well in bull markets, but in bear markets, they may be more susceptible to market volatility than those based on real assets (RWAs). Iljia:

It's really interesting. When we try to bring a new idea to the market, we often apply it with old patterns or product logic. I can't remember the name of this phenomenon for a moment, but it illustrates a problem: people still tend to see the crypto industry as a financial industry. While crypto is indeed closely related to finance, its potential goes far beyond that. Encryption is actually an expression of attention economy and can even be seen as a new form of advertising. But many people haven't fully understood this yet.

I think there are two very exciting categories of products worth exploring in the crypto space. The first category is stablecoin products designed for developing countries , which can solve practical economic problems and are of great social significance. The second category is some extreme long-tail products , such as attention assets with a life cycle of only 13 seconds. Although these products seem crazy, they are full of innovative potential. And traditional products in between, such as placing equity on blockchain, I don’t think it’s so attractive. Because this is not a breakthrough innovation that can bring 10 times improvement. In my opinion, the most successful companies in the future will be born in these two extreme areas.

Current status of Vector's scale growth

Imran: How is the scale of Vector currently developing? I noticed that your trading volume has exceeded one billion dollars.

Iljia: At the peak of our platform, the total annual transaction volume was close to US$9 billion, with an average daily transaction volume of approximately US$25 million. At this rate, the annual transaction volume was approximately US$9 billion. I believe we have a chance to regain the previous peak. Products like this need some time to improve, and we are constantly optimizing and fixing problems during the launch process.

Specifically, we currently have 20,000 active users, of which 5,000 are active traders, with daily trading volumes ranging from 5 million to 15 million US dollars. It should be emphasized that this product has just been launched for two months and there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Qiao: And the platform is still in the testing stage. Is it only available to whitelist users?

Iljia: Yes, the current users are mainly whitelisted users in the testing stage. We want to be more cautious when promoting products, because this is a product that relies on social communication. Users who join through friends are usually more trustworthy and more likely to accept products. The invitation mechanism is designed to encourage users to invite their friends to join.

In addition, this method has another advantage: since the product has not been completely polished, new users can directly seek help from their friends who invite them for help when they encounter problems during use, such as "Why can't this function be used?" or "This operation What does it mean? "This kind of "step-by-step" support can greatly improve the user experience. If the user is directly introduced into an unfinished product, the user may give up on using it because of a poor experience. And once the user gives up, it is usually difficult to try again. Therefore, we hope to gradually optimize the user experience through this cautious promotion method.

Qiao's annual experiment sharing

Qiao: Well, I did my annual experiment and sent a tweet saying “Solana is the ultimate form of blockchain” and just wanted to see the reaction.

The response this year is much better than last year.去年，每一个以太坊的狂热支持者都来攻击我。但今年情况不同了，因为很多人两周前刚经历了一些崩盘。所以今年的讨论相对理性了不少。

Imran： 说到这个，我觉得这和我们今天早些时候聊到的问题有关。Alliance 作为一个中立的创业加速器，目前正在投资多个项目，包括约100 个Layer 1 和Layer 2 项目，以及一些新兴平台，比如Mega ETH、Monad、Abstract、Story Protocol 和Hyper Liquid 等等。

这个名单还在不断增加，我们收到的初创公司申请成千上万，其中在Base 和Solana 上看到的项目质量确实与众不同。

但问题是，现在有太多Layer 1 项目在推出，我甚至都跟不上这些进展了。Blast 的推出算是成功，但用户反馈说他们的意见没有被重视，觉得自己被“割韭菜”了。

Abstract 的表现让我有些意外，虽然推出得不错，但他们更关注消费者市场的策略似乎不受欢迎，很多用户开始流失。我认为这种频繁的轮换式推出让用户感到疲惫，流入这些Layer 1 项目的流动性也因此逐渐减少。

Qiao： 这确实是一个值得探讨的问题，因为它对投资者和初创团队都非常重要。我们掌握的信息是其他领域难以获得的，因为我们直接参与了初创公司产品的早期阶段。

一年前，我对以太坊Layer 2 和Solana 之间的差异并没有太多关注。但在观察了我们合作的初创公司在这两个生态系统中的表现后，现在 很明显，Solana 是更好的选择 。 我们看到很多案例，同样的产品在以太坊Layer 2 上几乎没有用户，而在Solana 上却能顺利运行并吸引大量用户。我遇到的证据太多了，以至于现在如果不建议创始人在Solana 上构建，我觉得是不负责任的。这个结论已经非常明确了。

开发者从以太坊迁移至Solana 的趋势

Imran：我注意到一些 Base 的支持者已经转向了Solana，你觉得这背后的原因是什么呢？

Qiao： 原因其实很简单，在Solana 上更容易吸引用户。虽然对于熟悉EVM 的开发者来说，转向Solana 并不轻松。他们需要学习一整套全新的工具，还要掌握Rust 编程语言以及Solana 特有的开发框架。这可能需要一到两个月的时间，但即使如此，他们仍然觉得这是值得的，因为Solana 提供了更好的用户基础和生态支持。

我其实从创世区块以来就持有以太坊。但我去年卖掉了，我持有了整整10 年。 你可以想象，持有一个资产10 年，然后突然觉得，“它的增长潜力差不多到头了。”真的到头了 。

不同区块链上的用户画像分析

Imran： 我觉得Base 的策略其实很不错，因为他们拥有强大的分发渠道。而Jessie 的策略是“我希望帮助开发者实现病毒式传播”。这个想法本身是有道理的。但实际情况是很多开发者在Base 上发布应用时，并没有吸引到足够多的用户，也缺乏必要的流动性。我把这种现象称为“投机性流动性”，也就是应用在正常运作时需要的流动性支持。而在Solana 上，用户似乎更倾向于投机，更愿意尝试新应用，而不是在Base 上停留。

Qiao： 当我们说“投机性”时，其实不只是指那些交易者。这些用户对新鲜事物非常开放，愿意尝试各种新应用。

Imran：所以从用户画像来看， Base 和Solana 的确存在很大的差异。这是因为文化差异吗？

Qiao： 我觉得这既与文化有关，也与产品设计有关。比如说，目前没有任何EVM 钱包能与Solana 的Phantom 相提并论。

在EVM 上，用户体验非常分散。新用户面对众多钱包选择时往往会感到无从下手，这对他们来说是一种心理负担。而在Solana 上，目前对我来说只有一个主流选择，那就是Phantom，这种单一选择反而降低了用户的决策成本。

区块链技术的最终形态展望

Imran： 虽然我不太愿意承认，但目前来看，Solana 的发展已经呈现出“赢家通吃”的趋势。我的意思是，尽管还有一些新兴项目，但这场竞争远未结束，可能会持续几十年。比如，Hyperliquid 是一个非常有趣的初创公司，他们基于Solana 构建，并且有很吸引人的叙事逻辑。SUI、Aptos 也是值得关注的项目。 你觉得区块链最终会发展成什么样子？

Qiao： 在我看来，最终会有四到五条区块链能够脱颖而出，成为行业的主力。Solana 显然是目前的领头羊，优势非常明显。除了Solana，我认为 SUI、Aptos 和Monad 也有潜力。这些链充分利用了现代硬件技术，既能最大化交易吞吐量，又能保持一定程度的去中心化。

相比之下，Ethereum 更注重实现高度去中心化，试图抵御政府干预，但为此牺牲了很多扩展性。从实际应用来看，这种理论在处理高交易量时显得竞争力不足。

另一方面，还有一些链它们通过集中化节点来提高速度，但却牺牲了去中心化。这种模式可能对市场做市商更友好，因为他们可以与集中化数据中心的节点协作。不过，这种模式尚未经过实践验证，因为这些链还没有正式上线。因此，我们需要继续观察。我认为它们有10% 到20% 的机会能够对抗Solana，但目前Solana 在用户吞吐量方面拥有非常强大的竞争壁垒。

Double Zero 也非常偏向高频交易（HFT），他们的DNA 就是在于快速通信。这正是高频交易所擅长的。Hyperliquid、DeepSeek 也来自高频交易领域。

Imran： 这里有一个模式。实际上，Anatoly 在最初构思Solana 时，就把它定位为链上的NASDAQ，这是他最初想要实现的应用场景。

Qiao： 根据我的经验，在所有的集中交易所中，NASDAQ 的技术确实是最先进的。与NYC 和CME 相比，NASDAQ 的延迟最低，撮合引擎也最稳定。正因如此，市场做市商更喜欢在NASDAQ 上进行交易。

Imran： 可以说Anatoly 的思路是从最难的问题入手进行构建。比如，如何在链上搭建一个交易市场或交易所？如果你能解决这个问题，那么你几乎可以构建任何其他应用。这也是他为什么如此专注于这个场景，因为如果你能在链上解决这个问题，就能解决一切问题。

Double Zero、Fire Dancer 等项目，以及越来越多的应用程序正在进入我们的生态系统。比如Clout 的创始人，他也曾是Monkey 的创始人之一（Monkey 是Web 2 中最大的社交应用之一）。他主动选择在Solana 上构建，这就是一个很好的例子。他是主动找上我们的，而不是我们去邀请他。

Qiao： 有人问我，Solana 和Ethereum 上的创始人比例是多少？我认为大约是50:50，但如果看顶尖的1% 人才，我觉得这个比例更接近75:25。 What do you think?

Imran： 我也有同感。这对Solana 来说是一个很大的优势，因为那些找到产品市场契合点的创始人会向他们的朋友和同事推荐Solana，鼓励他们在这里构建应用。这种口碑效应随着时间的推移，形成了Solana 的结构性壁垒。

Coinbase 的战略布局

Imran： 作为加密行业的先驱，Coinbase 一直备受尊敬，我们都很钦佩Brian Armstrong 和他的执行团队，包括Jesse。但从我外部的观察来看，Base 可能并不是Coinbase 最优的战略选择。

Qiao： 我觉得Base 应该尝试去构建他们自己的Layer 1。

Imran： 无论是Layer 2 还是Layer 1，我的意思是，作为一家大公司，Coinbase 在政治上与Base 及其资产绑定得太紧密了，这使得他们对其他生态系统的资产支持不足。

不仅仅是政治原因，资源限制也是一个问题。他们的资源有限，因此自然会优先支持Base。这也导致他们在支持Solana 上显得力不从心，甚至没有列出许多热门的Meme。

Qiao： 我并不是在批评他们的选择，但我想指出，Coinbase 对Base 的专注让他们在结构和政治上形成了一种“隧道视野”，忽略了像Solana 这样正在发生的重要变化。

Imran： 确实如此。这导致他们在Solana 上的提现时间长达9 小时，同时也没有列出许多用户想交易的Meme。结果，像Moonshot 这样的新兴项目抓住了机会，利用Solana Meme 的热潮，吸引了40 到50 万的新用户。

Qiao： 而这些用户本来是有可能进入Coinbase 的。

Imran： 所以我觉得Coinbase 正在逐渐失去他们曾经的宏观视野，而这正是我看到的潜在危机。

Qiao： 我们实际上看到Coinbase 和Solana 之间的竞争非常激烈。Coinbase 的Base 和Jupiter、Meteora、Moonshot 等项目形成了鲜明对比。破坏性创新往往从底层开始，因为链上有太多代币被铸造和交易，而集中交易所无法覆盖所有这些代币，从而逐渐丧失了市场份额。

尤其是当代币在Binance 上市时，社区往往会将其视为负面信号，因为代币价格通常会在上市后下跌。

从应用商店的数据来看，像Phantom 和Moonshot 这样的项目往往比Coinbase 更受欢迎，这表明越来越多的用户直接选择链上交易，而不是去集中交易所。

关于“Blast 本该是Hyperliquid” 的探讨

Imran： 我觉得现在可能已经有些晚了。虽然竞争还在继续，但目前来看，Solana 仍然占据领先地位。虽然领先优势不算特别大，但我认为他们正在逐渐失去市场份额。我们可以聊聊Hyperliquid。至少从Twitter 的讨论来看，很多有影响力的创始人都在选择基于Hyperliquid 构建项目。我感觉他们正在吸引大量的EVM Degen 用户（以太坊虚拟机生态中的投机者）。从某种意义上说，Hyperliquid 本该是Blast 的角色。

Blast 本来有机会成为像Hyperliquid 这样的项目，但他们的行动太慢了。我试用了Blast Wallet 应用，但我甚至搞不清楚这款应用的核心功能是什么。虽然它提供了20% 的收益率，这听起来不错，但这个钱包几乎没有其他实际用途。

所以我认为他们在竞争中输给了Hyperliquid。Hyperliquid 能够吸引 EVM Degen 社区，并围绕交易功能构建生态。 即使他们的重点只是交易，这也是可以接受的。此外，像SUI 和Aptos 这样的项目也在快速发展。它们今天的TVL（总锁仓量）达到了历史新高。这些项目确实有一些亮点，虽然我不完全看好，但也不能忽视它们的潜力。

Qiao： 我对此持开放态度。不过目前来看，Solana 在所有竞争对手中依然遥遥领先。我并不是说竞争已经尘埃落定，但我认为以太坊的Layer 2（第二层扩展解决方案）或者其他新兴的Layer 1（第一层区块链）想要超越Solana 的可能性不到50%，甚至可能只有10% 到20%。

Imran： 另外，新的Layer 1 项目的推出方式也非常关键。到目前为止，除了BeraChain 建立了一个庞大的TVL 基础外，从叙事角度来看，其他项目并没有真正让我感到兴奋。最近推出的许多Layer 1 项目缺乏吸引力，也没有足够的激励机制。我希望随着时间的推移，这种情况会有所改善。最终，关键还是要看这些平台上能构建出什么样的产品。