ARK Invest 2025 Report: How does Sister Mu view Crypto, AI Agent and stablecoins?

Original source: Web3 Xiaolu

As we stand at the forefront of an unprecedented new era of growth, ARK Invest’s “Big Idea 2025” illustrates the complex convergence between today’s five growing technology-enabled innovation platforms: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, Public blockchain and multi-omic sequencing. These platforms are driving exponential advances in various industries and catalyzing step-by-step changes in global economic growth.

ARK Invest’s 2025 report presents 11 big ideas that illustrate the huge changes that are taking place today that are expected to significantly increase productivity, revolutionize the industry, and create long-term investment opportunities that are far-reaching for investors, businesses and society as a whole Influence.

From this, we sorted out the 2025 report about AI Agent, stablecoins, and public blockchains, presenting a way to look at such issues from the perspective of Wall Street Funds. This perspective allows us to get rid of the current PVP situation in the crypto market, and start from a more traditional and universal way, looking at the true utility of innovative AI Agents, stablecoins, public blockchains, and future trends.

Take Aways:

AI Agent will change the logic of people’s search and shopping and be carried by digital wallets;

Digital wallets can further integrate savings, lending, insurance, investment, consumption and other functions in traditional bank financial services, and through the AI ​​Agent innovation paradigm, the value chain of global e-commerce and digital consumption of downstream platforms can be moved upstream;

Combined with the utility of AI, the valuation of digital wallet companies will be improved. Importantly, here digital wallets can not only cover the vast existing user base of Web2, but also form a closed-loop of value through AI Agent, but also seamlessly connect to innovative applications of Web3, bringing greater economic benefits to users;

The annual trading volume of stablecoins is close to that of Visa and Mastercard, and their supply volume and number of active stablecoin addresses hit record highs in 2024;

Innovations around blockchain-based stablecoins will emerge in an endless stream and become one of the important ways to export the dollar. It is expected that the market value of the stablecoins may grow to $1.4 trillion by 2030;

In this field, with the continuous improvement of innovative financial infrastructure and the integration with traditional financial infrastructure, coupled with the help of AI, we will inevitably see more investment and mergers and acquisitions from the traditional financial level.

1. Five innovation platforms to accelerate economic growth

The growth and changes of the macro economy are in line with historical laws. Since the beginning of human history, the economy has stagnated for 100,000 years, and innovation (particularly writing) allowed the empire to connect the continents together, thus quadrupled the real growth rate in 1000 AD. Since then, agricultural innovation has increased population density and specialized labor, resulting in doubled growth rate in 1500 to 0.3% per year.

In the 400 years before 1900, with the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution sweeping the world, annual GDP growth doubled again to 0.6%. After that, the Second Industrial Revolution, marked by electrification, cars and telephones, kicked off modernization and has increased its growth rate by fivefold to an average of 3% over the past 125 years.

Today, technological breakthroughs in the fields of artificial intelligence and intelligent robots may increase productivity again and push economic growth to another level in the next 5 to 10 years. By 2030, ARK Invest expects growth to reach 7.3%, relative to 3.1% of the IMF.

Against this backdrop, the convergence of multiple technology platforms including artificial intelligence and public blockchain is increasing, and network density has increased by 30% over the past year.

Public Blockchains

After mass adoption of public blockchains, all currencies and contracts may be moved to the public blockchain, enabling verification of the scarcity and proof of ownership of digital assets. Traditional financial systems may reconfigure assets to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts. These technologies increase transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory controls, and reduce contract execution costs.

In such a world, as more and more assets become more easily monetized, businesses and consumers gradually adapt to the new financial infrastructure, digital wallets that concern everyone's assets will become increasingly important.

AI

With the development of data, AI computing systems and software can solve difficult problems, automate knowledge work, and accelerate the integration of AI technology into every economic sector. Adoption of Neural Network should be more important than electrification and could create hundreds of trillions of dollars in value. At scale, these systems will require unprecedented computing resources, and AI-specific computing hardware will dominate the next generation of cloud data centers that train and operate AI models.

The potential of end users is obvious: AI-powered group of smart devices will penetrate people’s lives and change the way they consume, work and play. AI adoption should change every industry, influence every business, and catalyse every innovation platform.

2. AI Agent Redefines consumer interaction and business processes in

enterprise work

AI Agent (AI Agent) understands intentions through natural language, uses reasoning and appropriate context to plan, uses tools to take action to achieve intentions, and improves through iterative and continuous learning. With the birth of smarter AI models, AI Agent will use more and more complex tools to complete higher-value tasks.

AI Agent will accelerate the adoption of more digital applications and bring epoch-making transformations in human-computer interaction. Whether in hardware sales or software subscriptions, AI Agent combined with it will drive the large-scale application of AI. For example, embedding AI Agent in an operating system of consumer-grade hardware allows consumers to delegate all discovery and research to AI, saving a lot of time.

2.1 AI Agent will change the logic of people's search and shopping

AI Agents may become the gateway for personal searches, and if searches turn to personal AI Agents, their advertising revenue may surge. By 2030, ARK Invest believes that AI advertising revenue may account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market, directly snatching market share from traditional search giants like Google.

Digital advertising. Well-curated AI feedback results will provide opportunities for digital advertising. If the search business shifts to individual AI Agents, AI Agent's advertising revenue may surge. ARK Invest believes that by 2030, AI advertising revenue will account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market.

Consume online. By 2030, AI Agent's shopping volume may be close to 25% of global online shopping reachable addresses. Consumers’ use of AI Agent in shopping will simplify product discovery, provide personalized solutions and facilitate purchases. Research by ARK Invest shows that by 2030, AI Agent can boost nearly $9 trillion in total online consumption worldwide.

2.2 Digital wallets will help AI Agent realize a closed-loop value

ARK Invest research shows that digital wallets authorized by AI Agent will acquire share from traditional payment methods such as credit and debit cards, which could account for 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030. Digital wallets are integrating financial services and e-commerce. Based on its consumer-oriented business, the market valued leading digital wallet platforms such as Block, Robinhood and SoFi at $1,800 per user.

In addition to the digital wallet that can integrate savings, lending, insurance, investment, consumption and other functions in traditional bank financial services, digital wallet can undertake the value links of global e-commerce and digital consumption on downstream platforms through the help of AI Agent innovation paradigm. , thereby moving the value link upstream.

As a result, the previous "one-click checkout" model of e-commerce platforms such as Amazon may give way to the "one-time query and purchase" model of AI Agent wallets.

2.3 The valuation of digital wallet companies will be improved

Based on lead generation rates and the impact of the AI ​​Agent innovation paradigm, by 2030, AI Agent can generate $40 billion to $200 billion in global revenue for digital wallet platforms (the basic situation and optimistic situation for ARK respectively). By 2030, AI Agent can add $50 to $200 in enterprise value (EV) to each user of a digital wallet in the United States.

For internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement, companies deploying AI Agents should be able to increase unit counts and/or optimize labor to engage in higher value activities while keeping their labor unchanged. As artificial intelligence develops, AI Agents may handle higher proportions of workload and perform higher value tasks independently.

At the same time, with the decline in AI costs, more and more low-priced and efficient AI Agent products will appear. OpenAI and Salesforce’s new products are complementing human customer service representatives in a cost-effective way. Even if the fixed cost per conversation is $1, as long as the AI ​​agent can handle 35% of customer service consultations, it can save businesses a lot of money. AI agents should also reduce onboarding and recruiting costs and seat-based software costs while scaling easier than manual.

3. Stablecoins reshape the digital asset field

As one of the fastest growing areas of digital assets, stablecoins surpassed Mastercard and Visa in 2024. Despite a two-year bear market with a market value drop of more than 70%, the growth of stablecoins has not been interrupted.

3.1 Stablecoin trading volume is close to Visa and Mastercard

According to a report by ARK Invest, the annualized transaction volume of stablecoins reached US$15.6 trillion in 2024, which is about 119% and 200% of Visa and Mastercard, respectively. Monthly transaction volume reached 110 million transactions, accounting for approximately 0.41% and 0.72% of the transaction volumes processed by Visa and Mastercard. In other words, the stablecoin value per transaction is much higher than that of Visa and Mastercard.

(visaonchainanalytics.com/transactions)

Since stablecoins can be used in various use cases, transactions can be initiated manually by end users or programmatically via robots, there is a lot of noise in the stablecoin data. Therefore, Visa adjusts the data of the stablecoin to remove inorganic activities and other artificial inflation behaviors adapted to robots.

According to Visa Onchain Analytics Dashboard: Overvie, the adjusted stablecoin annualized transaction volume reached US$5.62 trillion in 2024. We analyze data from the first 12 months ended February 2025:

Raw data:

The annualized transaction volume of stablecoins is US$32.3 trillion, with a total transaction volume of 4.9 billion, with a transaction volume of US$6,592 per transaction volume. Corresponding to the total amount of stablecoins of 200 billion, the capital turnover rate is 161.5.

Adjusted data (excluding robot operations and high-frequency data behaviors):

The annualized transaction volume of stablecoins is US$6.1 trillion, totaling 1.3 billion transactions, with a transaction volume of US$4,692 per transaction. Corresponding to the total amount of stablecoins of 200 billion, the capital turnover rate is 30.5.

Therefore, according to Visa's data, the adjusted stablecoin transaction volume is close to the annual transaction volume level of Mastercard, and each transaction is worth a higher value.

(If the data is incorrect, or if there are other data statistics, please communicate and correct it)

3.2 The supply of stablecoins and the number of active stablecoin

addresses hit record highs in 2024

Despite the differences in statistics, the overall market value of stablecoins has exceeded US$200 billion and has maintained a continuous upward trend. Solana, Tron, Ethereum and Base are the leading blockchains that drive stablecoin transaction volume growth in 2024. A new record was set in December 2024, with daily trading volumes of $270 billion and monthly trading volumes of $2.7 trillion, highlighting the industry's rapid growth.

After the decline in 2023, UDST (Tether) continues to dominate the stablecoin sector, followed by USDC (Circle). They together account for 90% of the total supply. Multi-chain stablecoins penetrate almost all major L1 blockchains. The current supply of stablecoins is US$203 billion, accounting for about 0.97% of the US M2* money supply. In December 2024, the active stablecoin address reached 23 million, a record high. As measured by monthly active addresses, Tron is the leading network, favored by emerging markets for its low transaction fees.

L2 blockchain is cheaper and more efficient, and is attracting the interest of retail investors. Retail investors flock to Layer 2 for cheaper and more convenient stablecoin transactions, thus increasing the market share of blockchains such as Arbitrum, Base and Optimism. Meanwhile, whales and institutions continue to operate on the foundational layer of Ethereum. Trading below $100 dominates Base and Optimism, while trading above $100 dominates the base layer of Ethereum.

3.3 Peer-to-peer transactions and personal wallet storage dominate

stablecoin use cases

EOA wallet—Ethereum address for peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions and asset storage standards—accounts for 60% of USDC usage, while centralized exchanges account for 11%, cross-chain bridge L2 solutions account for 7%, decentralized transactions The DEX and the money market each account for 1.7%.

With the surge in DeFi usage over the next few years, DEX, cross-chain bridges and money markets may regain market share from P2P. While the usage of lending markets, DEX and cross-chain bridges fluctuates with market cycles, P2P transactions and storage are more flexible because in addition to trading, the product market fit is higher.

3.4 Four stablecoin issuers dominate stablecoin revenue

With less than 200 employees, Tether reported a $5.2 billion profit in the first half of 2024, including unrealized gains from USDT, the remaining products and services, and its digital assets – which is clearly the most capital-efficient in history. one of the businesses. Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) account for 60% of revenue generated by the top five networks and applications. Overall, stablecoins USDT, USDC, DAI/USDS and USDE generated $3.35 billion in revenue in the second half of 2024, at an annualized rate of $6.7 billion.

Circle and Tether have been generating billions of dollars in revenue through Treasury bills and other securities that serve as collateral for their stablecoins. However, in 2024, in order to cope with competition and demand, Yield Bearing Stablecoina, which operates outside the United States, began to transfer a large portion of its interest income to users. Unless absolutely necessary, Circle and Tether are unlikely to follow this trend. Although the scale remains small, earnings stablecoins are the fastest growing category in the stablecoin market.

3.5 Stablecoins will accelerate growth and digest US debt

To balance "de-dollarization", stablecoins are increasing demand for U.S. government debt as collateral. In a world heading towards deglobalization and dedollarization, stablecoins may drive stable demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. As of December 2024, Tether and Circle have combined to become the 20th largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. In emerging markets with large populations such as Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia and India, individuals and companies are using stablecoins as a store of value, payment means and cross-border currencies. Stablecoins may become one of the most effective ways to export the dollar.

The current market value of stablecoins is US$203 billion, accounting for 0.17% of the global M2** supply. By 2030, the market value of stablecoins may grow to US$1.4 trillion and 0.9% respectively. If so, stablecoins will become the 13th largest currency in circulation, second only to Spain and ahead of the Netherlands.

4. Public blockchain and smart contracts: implement cost reduction and

create new use cases at the application layer

As the digital asset space becomes more complex, smart contracts are driving innovation in more and more industries. The ecosystem is rapidly evolving to meet diverse and dynamic needs – from user-centric applications such as gaming and SocialFi, to advanced financial tools such as derivatives and structured products, to providing wireless connectivity and energy storage Supported decentralized infrastructure network.

These technology stacks all need to seek a lower-cost and more efficient blockchain for deployment. This has created two current patterns in the market, either deployed on Solana's high throughput L1 or deployed on Ethereum's L2.

4.1 The Ethereum ecosystem is moving to L2

A sharp drop in transaction costs has led to a surge in L2 activity, pulling users away from the underlying layer of Ethereum. L2 accounts for 85% of the daily active addresses for transactions in the Ethereum ecosystem. Activity on L2 has increased Ethereum's daily transaction volume from 3 million to 15 million in 2024, an increase of 400%.

Among them, Base is the fastest growing Ethereum L2 blockchain. Within one year of launch, Base surpassed all other Ethereum L2 solutions in terms of growth and market share. In 2024, Base accounted for 46% of active users and incurred 63% of fees in Ethereum L2. Base TVL has a $15 billion deployment of more than 300 applications, making a significant contribution to Coinbase’s cash flow.

Nevertheless, the foundation layer of Ethereum still dominates high-value storage and settlement. Institutions, high-value users and whales settle their transactions primarily on the Ethereum base layer. The unit economic benefits of the Ethereum base layer are unparalleled as measured by total locked value (TVL) and the decentralized exchange (DEX) volume per user.

4.2 Solana's share has been increased based on several indicators due to

the adoption of retail

Solana saw a significant improvement over other L1s after hitting a bear low of $8 in 2023. Daily active users, revenue, transaction number and total locked value (TVL) all hit record highs or increased by an order of magnitude. Solana is the only L1 competing with Ethereum and Bitcoin on metrics such as daily active addresses and revenue.

Solana and Base are leading the way in developer adoption and thought share. Of the 39,139 new crypto developers added in 2024, Solana leads with 7,625 developers, surpassing the Ethereum main network. Base has 4,287 developers, ranking sixth overall, surpassing Arbitrum and Starknet to become the leading tier 2 solution on Ethereum.