Arthur Hayes New Article: In addition to Bitcoin national reserves, the United States' crypto hegemony has other plans

Author: Arthur Hayes

Compiled by: TechFlow

(The views expressed in this article are only the author's personal opinions and should not be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should they be regarded as suggestions or recommendations for participating in investment transactions.)

Pax Americana Make-A-Wish Corporation, located in Mar-a-Lago, receives a large number of "wishers" every day. People in the cryptocurrency world, like everyone else, line up in long lines trying to seize opportunities to fulfill one or more wishes. The fickle "elves" - the owner of "the Orange Man", will "open court" every week in South Florida's swamp, his private club that combines country style with nightclub style, accompanied by A classic 1980s pop music surrounded by a group of flattering followers.

Since there is no distinction between good and evil in the elves itself, what we really need to judge is whether the wisher 's wish is reasonable. Every culture in the world has moral stories about “wrong wishes”, and those who try to achieve success, wealth or personal happiness through shortcuts often have unexpected consequences.

The core meaning of these stories is: there is no "shortcut button" in life, and all the beauty comes from hard work and dedication.

In the global cryptocurrency industry, there are two highly-watched "wishes" worth discussing - one is to establish Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), and the other is to promote Pax Americana-style cryptocurrency regulation. Overall, many crypto practitioners want the U.S. government to buy bitcoin by printing money as part of the national reserves, while also hoping to establish favorable regulatory barriers for the crypto-related businesses they hold. I think these wishes are in the wrong direction. We should choose a more difficult but meaningful path to make a request to the “elves” that cannot be easily overturned even if the next government (regardless of its political parties) comes to power.

In the first part of this article, I will argue why BSR and the patchwork crypto-regulatory bills have negative impacts on industry development, both locally and globally. Then I will give some advice to those who wear striped suits or summer dresses every day waiting to make wishes to this “orange elf” and tell them what more valuable wishes should be made.

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR)

Anything that can be purchased can also be sold. When a government hoards an asset, the core problem is that this kind of buying and selling is usually for political purposes, not for economic gain. Under the framework of the current global economic system, what direct effect can Bitcoin bring to the US government? The answer is no. Bitcoin is nothing more than another financial asset. While some readers may think that Bitcoin is “the hardest currency in history” created by “the only true god” Satoshi Nakamoto, I can tell you with certainty that the “elves” (also referring to politicians)’s actions are not It originates from admiration for the gods, but to cater to the elected group who gave him to the throne of power.

Suppose Trump has really successfully established a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR). The government purchased one million bitcoins as proposed by U.S. Senator Lummis. What will be the result? Bitcoin price soared rapidly and the market fell into fanaticism, but as the government completed its purchase, Bitcoin 's "only rise but not fall" trend also came to an abrupt end.

Fast forward two to four years. By 2026, voters may be disappointed by Trump’s failure to effectively control inflation, end endless wars, improve food safety or resolve government corruption, and the Democrats may take this opportunity to regain power. What if they received an absolute majority in the House that was enough to overturn the president's veto? Let's say that in 2028, a Democratic president, such as Gavin Newsom, may rise in a "phoenix nirvana". Meanwhile, some controversial policies, such as allowing minors to undergo sex change surgery without their parents’ consent, may become a reality again. Some voters may cheer.

For an upcoming Democratic-controlled administration, finding ready-made funds to meet the needs of its supporters is a priority. And this is not only the Democratic Party, but in fact, it is difficult for any political party to avoid this logic. At this time, the government's Bitcoin reserves - one million lying quietly there, just a piece of signature, can be used as an "ATM". The market will naturally worry about when and in what way these Bitcoins will be sold. Will the government minimize the impact on the market and maximize the US dollar's returns, or will it deliberately suppress cryptocurrency holders who support "orange people" for political purposes? We don't know. But this uncertainty will seriously hit the market's confidence in Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

If the U.S. government decides to hoard “ shitcoins ”, including Ripple , these cryptocurrencies will inevitably be transformed into a powerful political tool. However, as a purely political strategy, will the U.S. government really be seriously involved in the crypto community? Will they donate to support the work of Bitcoin core developers? Will Bitcoin nodes be run? Maybe it is possible…but judging from the current discussion about BSR, it is more like a "buy it and leave it alone" plan. Trump and the Republicans may see the price of Bitcoin soar, then announce the “mission is completed” and take the opportunity to raise more campaign funds from David Bailey at a luxury dinner of $10,000 per set. Don't blame the players, blame the rules of the game. However, making such a wish to the "Elf" could cause unnecessary pain to the crypto industry within two years.

Frankenstein-style crypto bill

The easiest way to understand the regulatory policies a cryptocurrency holder (Hodler) hopes is to look at their portfolio. From my perspective of staying away from the hustle and bustle around the “elves,” those who have a lot of investment in centralized crypto financial intermediaries are often the most likely groups to realize their regulatory aspirations because they have the biggest voice. Unfortunately, developers who are committed to building truly decentralized technologies and applications do not have enough financial resources to participate in the political game in this cycle. The wealthiest crypto practitioners currently usually control exchanges, brokerage services or some kind of lending platform.

Therefore, if the desire for crypto-regulation is truly met, it may be presented in a complex and highly normative form of regulations that only large centralized companies with strong capital can afford the compliance costs. This is because the only people who can understand these laws are professional corporate lawyers who wander among various regulatory agencies. And these attorneys are not cheap – up to $2,000 per hour. Maybe this is considered a "bad price" in Dubai, but in my opinion, it is an expensive expense.

Is this really the result the broader crypto community wants from "Elf"? Is this all just to make Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink richer? I'm not criticizing them; they're just doing their jobs conscientiously—maximizing shareholder value by building a monopoly structure that will make their business stand out. Perhaps those Coinbase and BlackRock shareholders do want to see such a Frankenstein-style crypto bill. But in my opinion, such regulations cannot change the existing industry landscape. Although it has no direct negative impact on the crypto industry, it definitely has no positive effect.

For entrepreneurs who choose to relocate here because they believe the United States has a "crypto-friendly" government, be sure to think twice before doing it. If you acquiesce to this situation, your startup will likely end in failure. Those monopoly companies that rely on complex and cumbersome regulatory barriers to protect themselves have no interest in real innovation. They will use their unique privileged position to keep potential competitors out. As an entrepreneur, you may have flew to JFK Airport in business class, but when you finally leave, you may have to go back in economy class.

Make a wish

If I were asked to make a wish, what would I hope? I will tell you the answer. But in my style, before it is revealed, we need to review the history of finance and interpret certain key events from my perspective.

The core of the question is, why would the "elves" satisfy my desire, or at least a close variant? "Elf" and those assistants who actually control the operation of the country will only agree if my wishes help achieve their goals.

The main goal of Trump’s two key aides, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio, is to consolidate the dollar’s ​​position and maintain U.S. hegemony by reforming the global economic order. As in my previous article The Ugly **** As mentioned in this, the US dollar system is actually composed of two parts: one is currency and the other is reserve assets. Since the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the US dollar has been the global reserve currency, but the form of reserve assets has changed with the times.

The evolution of reserve assets of the US dollar system

• 1944 - 1971: Gold

During this period, the value of the dollar was fixed at $35 per ounce of gold. Sovereign states that are allied with "Pax Americana" can exchange dollars for gold at this price.

• 1971 - 1994: Oil

To cover the huge expenses of the Vietnam War, and the massive social welfare program implemented by its former President Lyndon B. Johnson, U.S. President Richard Nixon decided to end the gold standard. Since then, reserve assets have been transformed into petrodollars. Saudi Arabia became the first country to explicitly agree to price oil in US dollars and invest its dollar surplus in U.S. Treasury bonds. This arrangement allows the U.S. Treasury Department to issue bonds, which are actually supported by oil flows from the world's largest marginal oil producers.

• 1994 - 2025: Foreign exchange reserves of global exporters

Entering the 1980s, the United States greatly enhanced its economic resilience by increasing oil production and improving its economy's energy efficiency. At the same time, the rise of the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand has enabled the products to be produced at extremely low costs for consumers in the United States and Western Europe to consume. In 1994, China adopted a strategy of large-scale RMB depreciation and officially joined the global mercantilist competition for exports to exchange for foreign exchange reserves. These exporters are allowed to enter the vast Western consumer market, provided that the goods must be priced in US dollars and invest the surplus dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds.

• 2025 - Future: Bitcoin/Gold

However, China is not willing to continue to act as an affiliated role in the "Pax Americana" system. For China, the 20th century was a "humiliation century". The weak Qing emperor signed an unequal treaty with the great powers, and the two world wars and a civil war that followed made the country fall into the abyss. In the long history before the European Renaissance, China was once the world's largest economy. Therefore, the Communist Party of China (CCP) regards "realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" as its core goal. In fact, the idea of ​​“Make America Great Again” (MAGA) is not unique to the United States – China has been pursuing its own national rejuvenation since 1949.

To achieve this goal, China has successfully transformed from a low-cost, low-quality manufacturing country to a low-cost, high-quality producer. However, when Chinese leadership realized that buying more U.S. Treasury bonds with surplus would only further consolidate its status as the U.S. “Sub-power”, they decided to stop accumulating Treasury bonds. Under the past tacit understanding, every dollar's export surplus must be used to purchase equivalent U.S. Treasury bonds. However, according to public data over the past 12 months, China has earned $1 trillion from its export surplus, but its U.S. Treasury reserves have dropped by $14 billion.

This trend has also attracted the attention of other exporting countries. Among the rapidly developing southern countries in the global world, most trade with China has exceeded trade with the United States, although most of these trades are still denominated in US dollars. "De-dollarization" does not mean abandoning the dollar altogether, but investing surplus in assets that are not dominated by "American peace", such as Bitcoin and gold. This marks a potential transformation of the global economic order.

Trump aides face a difficult problem: they need to design a new system that can retain the dollar as the main denominated currency for global trade and find a suitable reserve asset to maintain the normal operation of the U.S. Treasury market . If they really had enough capacity, they might also be able to try to quickly reduce the U.S. public debt to around 30% of GDP – the level of the U.S. in 2000.

However, global markets are no longer willing to regard U.S. Treasury bonds as a savings vehicle. This is exactly why a "neutral reserve asset" is needed. No country has tried to replace the dollar with its own currency, as the recession of "Pax Americana" is already obvious, and this recession is caused by the economic imbalance brought about by the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Before continuing to discuss my wishes, I would like to talk about how a top strategist in the traditional finance (TradFi) money market viewed this issue.

DeepSeek

Zoltan Pozsar is a former Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) staff member and a Credit Suisse strategist. A blog he currently writes is highly sought after by the "American Peace" financial elite. His solution (which I will go into more detail later) may be put into practice and therefore worth exploring. But I will also point out where my differences with his views lie. Ultimately, I think his solution is more suitable for the 1980s than for 2025.

Many strategists who believe in the "American Exceptionism" believe that regaining the power and prestige of "American peace" is like the plot of the movie Top Gun. In their imagination, a heroic Tom Cruise flew an F-14 fighter and easily defeated his Russian and Chinese opponents. However, this idea is obviously wrong.

The recent Top Gun sequel may better reflect the current international situation, just a little adjustment is required. Replace the nearly $75 million worth of F-18 fighter jet with Iran-made Shahed drone. The drone is priced at just $50,000 and is widely sold in southern countries around the world. Tom Cruise, although he is over 60 years old, is still flying these overpriced fighter jets, while his opponent is a group of drones connected through AI technology, which costs only a small part of the fighter jets. On the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia and the United States have witnessed how powerless the traditional weapons of the 20th century are on the battlefield dominated by modern drones.

This reminds me of DeepSeek. If you are too addicted to the world of TikTok, you may not know yet that DeepSeek is a revolutionary AI Big Language Model (LLM). Its performance is comparable to ChatGPT or Claude, but its training costs are 95% lower. More importantly, it is open source. As of now, no CEO of any tech giant, such as NVIDIA's Jensen Huang or Microsoft's Satya Nadella, has come forward to question the authenticity of the results or the rationality of the cost.

The significance of DeepSeek is that it was developed by a Chinese hedge fund practitioner from Hangzhou. Against the backdrop of the US's high-performance semiconductor economic blockade on China, the US's logic believes that it is impossible for Chinese entrepreneurs to train and deploy LLMs that rely on US high-performance chip training. However, DeepSeek's success directly shattered the ingrained idea that "who spends the most money, who has the best LLM performance." This also verifies the old saying: "Demand is the mother of invention." Even with economic sanctions, a small Chinese entrepreneurial team with only 200 people has made a breakthrough with determination. If China's production capacity cannot be destroyed through ground wars, then the era of American exceptionalism may really be coming to an end. In fact, there is nothing wrong with being an ordinary country unless your entire national identity is based on a fictional sense of national superiority and consider yourself superior just because you were born in "America".

When non-American elites think they are inherently inferior, they often choose to obey. This psychology makes it easy for the U.S. financial elite to dominate global policies, such as deciding what currency a country uses in trade, and how to invest in its national surplus. However, if non-Americans begin to realize that they are equal to Americans, they may no longer easily accept orders from American diplomats. This is especially important for Zoltan's policy recommendations, as his measures are based on bilateral cooperation. Bessent If a country's finance ministry or treasury is made, a country's finance ministry or treasury may obey, but if the country refuses, there is nothing to talk about. This is the fatal weakness of Zoltan's policy plan.

Zoltan’s goal is consistent with mine: to weaken the value of U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, Zoltan correctly pointed out that the United States needs to extend the lifetime of its debt and reduce the interest paid. Assuming Bessent wants to reduce debt to GDP from 100% to 30%, if GDP remains the same, the actual value of debt needs to be reduced by 70%. Zoltan's core idea is to require foreign creditors to replace their short-term government bonds with centennial government bonds. This century-old government bond is not traded, but if the creditor country needs cash, it can repurchase it at face value.

Let me explain how this mechanism works:

Suppose you are a southern country (with a clearly insulting name) and hold a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond with a face value of $100, with a face value of $100.

1. As required by Bessent, you need to replace this 10-year Treasury bond with a zero-interest 100-year Treasury bond (the so-called a century-old Treasury bond). The actual market value of this century-old Treasury bond is only US$30, but the face value is still US$100. For ease of illustration, I simplified the mathematical calculations of bonds. A bond with no coupon income and a longer term must have an intrinsic value that is less than a bond with a coupon and a shorter term.

2. With this replacement, your debt’s actual value was cut by 70%, but the face value remained unchanged at $100.

3. If you are an "obedient ally" (such as Europe... although a little unreliable) or a "loyal vassal" (such as the Philippines... in fact, Europe may also fall into this category), you can contact the Federal Reserve at any time and take this 100-year-old photo. Futures Treasury bonds are exchanged for US dollars at face value, and no fees are required. For example, when you need to buy oil from Saudi Arabia in US dollars, the actual market value of this century-old Treasury bond is only $30, but the Fed will exchange it for you at a face value of $100 today, and there is no interest.

4. But from then on, any of your dollar surplus can only be used to purchase centenary treasury bonds in future trade. You are not allowed to purchase any other financial assets.

This deal has both benefits and disadvantages. The downside is that your debt is cut by 70%, which is equivalent to causing your national savings system to suffer a heavy blow. Worse, you agree that you can only get liquidity support from debt issuers, that is, the Federal Reserve, and not trade freely through global markets. But on the other hand, if you are "obedient", the Fed will provide you with interest-free loans at face value.

The good thing about this deal is that if you are willing to accept this "naked humiliation", you can enter the common prosperity circle of "American peace". The punishment is that if you refuse to accept this transaction, your exported goods will be suppressed by high tariffs or even completely blocked, and you will not be able to obtain American weapons to deal with conflicts at home and abroad.

However, there are several points that need to be pointed out in particular that these factors combined may cause the deal to not be accepted by many countries. First, for many countries, China has now replaced the United States as their largest trading partner. Secondly, the United States' arms supply is already stretched, as they are almost all used to arm Ukraine. In addition, many of the US weapons are just Chinese intermediate products that are re-exported, so why not just go to China to buy them? Finally, from a psychological perspective, if a country has escaped its "slave mentality", why should it still voluntarily accept this "naked humiliation"?

My Vision

Can I improve Zoltan’s idea? The answer is obviously OK.

Our core objectives remain unchanged: to weaken the actual value of existing U.S. Treasuries , to maintain the dollar as the main settlement currency for global trade, and to extend the maturity of Treasuries to 100 years. At the same time, I also proposed a new goal: to build Bitcoin into a global neutral reserve currency.

Choosing a reference for depreciating fiat currency is very critical. If the reference selected is a commodity with practical uses such as oil or food, social unrest may be caused by inflation. Therefore, devaluation must be directed at an asset that does not substantially harm the standard of living of the general public.

Zoltan's plan is to depreciate with time as a reference. His idea was to replace a 10-year bond with a 100-year bond. According to the time value theory of currency, assets that can only be cashed out after 100 years have an intrinsic value that is much lower than those that can be cashed out after 10 years. But this replacement requires the consent of the counterparty. And I think the reference for depreciation should be Bitcoin. More importantly, this devaluation can be implemented unilaterally, with the final effect the same as Zoltan’s approach.

My plan:

Step 1: Public statement

Bessent delivered a speech announcing the U.S. plans to restructure the global reserve currency system. The U.S. dollar will continue to be the denominated currency for global trade, but reserve assets will be replaced by Bitcoin.

Step 2: Gradually depreciate

The U.S. Treasury Department will buy Bitcoin in US dollars higher than the current market price. In this way, the total market value of Bitcoin is gradually increased so that it can be large enough to be competent for the role of global reserve assets. For example, if Bitcoin’s market value is to reach a scale comparable to that of the U.S. Treasury market, its price must rise to $1.8 million.

Example:

Assuming Bitcoin’s current price is $100,000, Bessent announced that the Treasury Department will buy Bitcoin for $200,000. But unlike traditional purchasing methods, the Ministry of Finance does not pay cash, but provides a 100-year zero-interest bond based on blockchain (centennial Treasury bond). In addition, anyone who meets the identity certification requirements can repurchase these bonds at face value with interest-free repurchase periods of a rolling one year. In other words, Bitcoin sellers appear to have obtained US dollars, but actually hold centenary Treasury bonds in the form of loans.

Market reaction:

This provides traders with arbitrage opportunities as the Treasury bid is higher than the market spot price. Traders can borrow dollars, buy bitcoin at a spot price lower than the Treasury bid, and then sell it to the Treasury for centenary Treasury bonds, then convert the bonds into dollars through a repurchase mechanism, and finally use these dollars to repay the loan. Since this is all done on the blockchain, anyone around the world can participate in the transaction, and the price of Bitcoin will quickly rise to the Treasury bid level.

criticize:

Why would Bitcoin holders be willing to exchange Bitcoin for a "unattractive" century-old Treasury bond? The reason is simple: the price is high enough. It's like many people think it's a good idea to hand over Bitcoin to BlackRock. If the price is attractive enough, most idealism and common sense will be left behind.

Step 3: Extend the Treasury Bond Maturity

At this time, the US Treasury Department held Bitcoin on the asset side, while the liability side was a century-old Treasury bond. The market will expect Bessent to continue to raise bids and thus take action in advance. At this time, the Ministry of Finance can sell Bitcoin at a higher price for USD. For example, when the market price rose to $300,000, and the Treasury previously purchased Bitcoin for $200,000, the $100,000 profit could be used to buy back 10-year Treasury bonds. In this way, Bessent can gradually extend the weighted average maturity (WAM) of state debt.

Treasury bond holders will not suffer any losses because they know that the Ministry of Finance will use trading profits to purchase non-circulating Treasury bonds. This is crucial because it can maintain the confidence and stability of traditional financial institutions (TradFi) in Treasury bonds as collateral and loan pricing mechanisms.

Step 4: Social Media Banking

To further consolidate the dollar's dominance outside China (due to large U.S. social media platforms such as Facebook and X are banned in China), Bessent proposes that Zuck (CEO of Facebook) and Musk (CEO of X) introduce in their respective applications Transfer function of US dollar stablecoins. Of course, the ideal option is to use Ethena's synthetic dollar stablecoin USDe . In this way, the world, especially the global southern region (Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram are the main online communication and business platforms in these regions), will be included in the US dollar system. This strategy can effectively offset any attempt to de-dollarize these countries.

More importantly, leaders of these countries are hardly able to stop this trend. If they try to deprive ordinary people of their dependence on social media, it could trigger social unrest overnight. Just like the United States itself can’t ban China-owned TikTok, as the younger generation will oust any politicians pushing the ban in the next election.

As digital dollars accumulate over the world, these dollar surpluses may be stored in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. If the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, small holders will naturally be attracted to sell the Bitcoin back to the Ministry of Finance for a century-old Treasury bond. In this way, holders of U.S. Treasury bonds will transform from a few countries to ordinary people around the world. Rather than convince a few countries not to sell their debts, let billions of ordinary people diversify their debts, because it is almost impossible to trigger the risk of simultaneous selling. Ultimately, the Treasury’s goal is to ensure that debt holders are willing to hold these bonds for a long time.

Technical blueprint

Whatever World Liberty Financial (WLF) claims to investors what they are developing, that's what they really should do. If you don't know yet, World Liberty Financial is a cryptocurrency organization associated with the Trump family. Its goal is to build infrastructure with Web3 technology and WLF, bringing direct reforms to the U.S. Treasury. This approach will bypass the traditional "big and cannot be destroyed" banks, but what else have these banks done besides triggering one financial crisis after another and needing to print money to rescue? Ultimately, the monetary inflation they create is eroding the economic foundations of the United States.

Just take a trip to New York City's "American-style peace" financial center and you can see the reality with your own eyes. Even though nightclubs are brightly lit, the shadows of poverty, homelessness and crime are everywhere. All of this is to blame for traditional banking systems such as JP Morgan & Chase.

Web3's technology stack should be powered by a public blockchain. You know what the answer is: Never stop pushing! From this perspective, Aptos is the ideal choice. It is currently the fastest (800 milliseconds), the lowest cost (only $0.00005 per transaction) and the most reliable (99.99% uptime) public blockchain, capable of supporting high-performance financial transactions.

And, Aptos' performance proves this. According to RWA.xyz **** According to data, Aptos is quietly among the top three networks with the largest number of on-chain institutional assets, and has also established partnerships with Franklin Templeton, Brevan Howard and Microsoft. Its MOVE architecture is designed internally by Facebook for the world's largest social network to handle financial transactions, and is fully qualified for this task.

Maelstrom won 't do anything for free. First of all, we need to declare that we hold a large number of assets in Aptos and Ethena.

The U.S. Treasury Department needs to establish an on-chain exchange for trading digital dollars, centenary Treasury bonds and Bitcoin.

Step 1: Launch Digital Dollars. The Treasury needs to choose two digital dollars: USDT of Tether and USDe of Ethena. USDT is essentially the USD stored in the U.S. banking system, while USDe is a synthetic USD generated by a combination of long cryptocurrencies and short perpetual swaps; all its assets are entrusted in large cryptocurrency exchanges. The essence of politics is "interchange of interests", so how can existing governments benefit from these two solutions? U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a stake in Tether, while World Liberty Financial (WLF) holds millions of dollars in Ethena governance tokens $ENA. If Tether and Ethena are selected as digital dollars recognized by the Treasury Department, their equity and token holders will benefit from it. This kind of "self-interest" is the fundamental driving force for the development of human society.

Step 2: Tokenize the centenary treasury bonds. The Ministry of Finance can issue one token (TSY100) for each centennial government bond. Users can purchase these tokens through the Aptos blockchain using Wrapped Bitcoin (Wrapped Bitcoin can now be packaged through tools such as Wormhole, Celer and LayerZero). Next, a repurchase mechanism is needed to allow users to mortgage TSY100 and obtain USDT or USDe loans.

Technical Note: From a technical point of view, the Ministry of Finance cannot directly create USDT or USDe. Therefore, if the user needs USDT, the Ministry of Finance needs to mint USDT by transferring money to Tether's bank account. If the user needs USDe, the Ministry of Finance needs to mint USDT first, and then generate USDe through Ethena's mechanism. This process can be automated through APIs provided by Tether and Ethena and completed in the form of atomic transactions.

Step 3: Build a Web3 money market exchange. The Ministry of Finance needs to establish a licensed Web3 money market exchange, which we can call EagleSwap. The Ministry of Finance already has an identity authentication service called ID.me (this is an example of an online identity authentication service). The service can be extended to enable users around the world to add their Aptos wallet to the whitelist by signing. When a user connects his Aptos wallet to EagleSwap via desktop or mobile, if whitelisted, he can trade freely between USDT, USDe, TSY100 and packaging Bitcoin. As the Treasury Department sells Bitcoin, USD and Treasury bonds on a large scale global basis, EagleSwap will soon become the most liquid place for trading these assets.

Next stage: Connecting to social media platforms. The Ministry of Finance can also work with social media platforms controlled by oligarchs around the world. Facebook and X are the best candidates for social media platforms to launch crypto wallet features. By connecting their users to EagleSwap in an abstract way, these users will be able to easily transfer, trade and store digital dollars, centenary Treasury bonds, and package Bitcoin. For the global southern region, the most urgent need is the ability to conduct business activities in US dollars outside its traditional financial system. Although the U.S. dollar may have problems, it is still a more stable option compared to other fiat currencies. The technical infrastructure for building this connection should be done using the Aptos blockchain.

The control of the oligarchs is beyond doubt, as can be seen from their prominent position at Trump 's inauguration. Next, they need to act further to weaken those traditional financial (TradFi) banks that are parasitic.

I have discussed previously how to implement this strategy by unilaterally devaluing the US dollar and related technical means. Next, I will explore why the United States can gain unique advantages in the production of "neutral reserve assets" by enacting appropriate laws.

Neutral reserve assets: potential advantages of the United States

If the elites who control Pax Americana are to accept this plan, the United States must have some unique competitive advantage in the mining of Bitcoin. As we all know, Bitcoin mining requires a lot of energy to solve complex mathematical problems. So the question is, does the United States have cheap and sufficient energy supply? The answer is yes. The United States has two significant advantages in energy production.

First, the United States has rich hydrocarbon resources. The United States is home to a large number of untapped hydrocarbon resources that are distributed within what we call “national boundaries.” All that is needed is sufficient capital and government drilling permits. More importantly, drilling activities that provide energy to Bitcoin mines are not limited by energy geographic location. Often, energy reserves are often far from the main population centers, and the transportation cost of transporting these resources to cities is sometimes even higher than the cost of mining. However, if power plants are built directly at the resource location to provide power to the Bitcoin mine, the transportation hassle can be completely saved.

Although many remote areas have abundant energy resources, these resources are often unable to be effectively utilized due to the lack of pipelines and transportation infrastructure. By establishing localized power stations and Bitcoin mines in these areas, these "trapped" energy resources can be fully utilized.例如，阿拉斯加州不仅地处偏远，碳氢化合物资源极为丰富，而且气候寒冷，非常适合建造比特币矿场。寒冷的气候可以显著降低矿场设备的冷却成本，使阿拉斯加成为理想的比特币挖矿基地。

第二，美国的资本主义传统。 美国的资本主义体系是其另一大优势。无论资本主义在道德上是否受到争议，这一体系的存在是不可否认的事实。美国是一个由一群逃税的奴隶主建立的国家，他们通过制定宪法，确保自己的资本能够持续增值，并让其后代在经济和政治上继续掌权。在这样的制度下，开展一项多年的大型资本投资项目，如钻探碳氢化合物和开采比特币，无疑是再合适不过的选择。

另一个点是美国本土半导体工厂建设带来的新优势。 台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor) 已接近完成其在亚利桑那州建设的几座最先进的晶圆厂。与此同时，在政府提供补贴和税收减免的激励下，其他半导体代工厂也将被鼓励在美国建厂。这意味着比特币ASIC 芯片（专用集成电路芯片）可以在美国本土生产。即使未来比特币价格上涨导致全球需求激增，美国也能确保芯片供应充足，不会出现短缺问题。

但当前存在一个重大挑战： 虽然传统的法币资本在美国享受着顶级的政策待遇，但比特币和其他加密货币却未能获得同样的支持。要解决这一问题，美国需要在宪法层面为比特币和加密货币提供保障。比特币矿工的核心原则是去中心化和不可审查，但目前存在一种可能性，即立法者可能要求矿工或节点运营者执行某种形式的审查行为。因此，公共加密账本（如区块链）需要被视为一种受保护的言论形式。这种观点是合理的，因为公共区块链本质上是一个由矿工通过消耗电力驱动的去中心化网络，其核心是一条不可篡改的数字言论链。

如果美国希望成为比特币挖矿的全球中心，只需通过一项不到200 字的法案即可实现：“加密货币及其基于区块链运行的代币应被视为受保护的言论形式。所有适用于言论自由的法律同样适用于公共区块链技术的用户或中介机构。加密货币和公共区块链属于私人领域，任何政府机构不得强制中介机构、参与者或区块链节点运营者收集或提供有关参与者和交易的数据。”

如果美国拥有一个支持能源发展的政府，再辅之以一项支持无许可创新的加密货币立法，就能够为吸引全球加密活动奠定坚实的基础。能源生产和ASIC 芯片制造需要巨额资本支出(CAPEX)，而美国不仅拥有充足的资本市场，还能提供对点对点去中心化网络运行的法律保护。这些条件将使美国成为比特币网络算力的主要集中地。最终，“中性储备资产”将在美国境内生产，这将为美国在全球经济中带来巨大的战略优势。

一旦相关立法通过，推翻它将变得极其困难。 就像许多政客虽然对大型科技公司和社交媒体的负面影响颇有微词，但自1996 年《通信法案》(Communications Bill) 第230 条生效以来，几乎没有任何实质性进展能够废除这一条款。该条款赋予了科技平台对其网络上的内容和活动免于承担责任的豁免权，而这一现状对相关各方来说实在过于有利可图。类似的“利益联盟”也可能在加密货币与政客之间形成，同时还会为那些需要高薪工作和税收增长的企业和个人带来实际好处。

持币者的崛起

如果Bessent 能够成功推动比特币价格突破180 万美元，将会诞生一批人类历史上最富有的人群。目前，比特币的一些最大持有者要么是美国居民，要么是美国注册的公司。例如，BlackRock 在推出比特币ETF 不到一年时间里，已经积累了接近60 万枚比特币，价值近600 亿美元。考虑到美国的政治权力很大程度上依赖于财富，这些比特币持有者将能够对政治施加巨大影响。如果共和党采纳了支持加密货币的政策，这些持币者可能会在未来许多年甚至几十年里成为其坚定的支持者。

对于政客来说，连任是他们的核心目标。除了特朗普以外，那些认同他政治理念的共和党人很可能在2026 年或2028 年再次当选。而通过让美国的加密货币持有者变得极其富有，同时进一步巩固美元的全球霸权地位，无疑是共和党政客确保连任的最佳策略之一。

全球对比特币作为储备资产的接受度

其他大型 贸易顺差 国家会接受比特币取代国债成为储备资产吗？ The answer is yes.

假设比特币的市值足够大，能够支撑数万亿美元的国际贸易，比特币相较于国债具有以下显著优势：

1. 比特币的代码不可单方面更改。

比特币的去中心化设计确保了任何人都无法单方面更改其代码。即使某些美国矿工试图通过硬分叉(Hard Fork) 改变区块链，例如排除某些交易或修改比特币的总供应量，这也只会导致新链上的比特币价值归零，使得他们的资产立即变得毫无价值。比特币区块链背后的经济博弈论确保了这种情况不会发生。

1. 比特币交易无国界。 只要有互联网连接，比特币就可以在任何时间、任何地点进行无许可的访问和交易。

2. 比特币是最纯粹的货币能量衍生物。 它能够随着时间的推移有效保存贸易顺差的能量价值，从而成为一种理想的储备资产。

没有任何国家，甚至包括中国，愿意承担全球储备货币发行者的角色，并让自己的债券市场成为全球储备资产。这是因为，这一角色自然要求开放资本账户，同时，当一个国家停止生产实际商品而转向金融工程时，大多数普通民众将面临严重的不利影响。这显然与“共同富裕”的理念背道而驰。因此，一个改进的系统可能是：继续使用美元进行贸易，或者允许双边本地货币的交换，但将贸易顺差储存在比特币中。这种系统对所有人都有好处……除了那些“太大而不能倒闭”的传统金融机构(TradFi)。这些机构将不得不面对自身权力和声望的逐渐衰退，而去中心化金融(DeFi) 的影响力则会与日俱增。

正确的愿望

囤积比特币(Stacking sats) 是我的爱好，我也希望是你的。因此，如果你有机会坐在“精灵的桌子”前，盛装出席，请确保你许下了正确的愿望。

后记：加密货币圈的天真与现实

加密货币圈子里的人，往往是世界上最聪明的一群人，同时也是最天真的一群人。而特朗普正在为他们上了一堂政治速成课。

比特币价格在不到60 天内从70,000 美元飙升至110,000 美元，这一现象的背后，是加密货币圈子普遍认为他们的所有愿望都会在Pax Americana (美式和平) 的框架下得到满足。然而，这种想法存在一个关键问题：在任何双边价值交换中，理智的选择是先收到商品再付款。而特朗普和共和党显然是先从加密货币圈子里拿到了他们想要的东西——足够的选票赢得总统职位，并在众议院和参议院取得党派多数。现在轮到他们“付款”了，但他们的时间表显然和我们这些“投机狂人”盯着一秒钟蜡烛图的急切心态完全不同。

特朗普目前正在成立工作组和参议院小组委员会，但并未采取实际行动。而当特朗普真的想行动时，他会迅速执行。比如，他对美国最大贸易伙伴征收25% 关税，从宣布到实施仅用了几天；他迅速废除了政府机构中的ESG (环境、社会和治理) 和DEI (多样性、公平和包容性) policy.这些例子表明，特朗普并非不会为加密货币采取积极行动，而是说明加密货币监管或比特币战略储备并不是他或共和党的首要任务。这令人遗憾，因为在边际上，加密货币的单一议题选民正是让他们上台执政的关键力量。

比特币价格将回落？

随着全球逐渐意识到，美国的政治并没有因为特朗普当选而发生根本性的改变，加密货币的价格可能会回落到2024 年第四季度的水平。我依然坚持比特币将重新测试70,000 至75,000 美元区间的预测。

加密货币市场如何摆脱低迷？

要让市场重新振作起来，可能需要以下几种情况发生： 美联储、美国财政部、中国或日本等机构推出某种形式的货币宽松政策，或者出台明确支持无许可加密创新(Permissionless Crypto Innovation) 的立法.然而，如果这部法案像“弗兰肯斯坦”一样被拼凑而成，只是为了迎合Coinbase、BlackRock 和传统股票投资者的利益，对我们这些加密狂热者(crypto degens) 来说，它既不会推动市场达到新的高度，也无法实现“去中心化一切”的目标。这样的法案不仅是对加密理想的背离，更是对“去中心化精神”的冒犯，其后果将是迅速且严厉的。

行动起来，为加密未来发声

尽管如此，我们仍然有希望。如果你是美国的加密货币持有者(Hodler)，现在是时候行动了！让你选出的代表知道，你不会容忍一成不变的政治现状。给他们发邮件、写信，或者亲自拜访他们的地方办公室。政客通常会对那些关心政策的人作出回应。如果你认为建立比特币战略储备是必要的，现在就大声疾呼，而不是仅仅在X 平台(原Twitter) 上点赞一条评论。

问题在于，数字设备让我们可以在自己的回音室里随意表达愤怒，但却很少促使我们在现实世界中采取真正的行动。而事实上，你真正珍视的一切，都是通过某种努力和代价换来的。加密货币的政治之路没有“简单按钮”——睁开眼睛，行动起来，否则市场可能会继续下探。