Bitcoin returns to $100,000 mark, options data suggests market outlook is bullish

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong rebound. Bitcoin has returned to more than $100,000 for the first time since December 19, 2024. As of press time, it was $102,263, an increase of nearly 4% in 24 hours. The rebound drove Ether Other mainstream currencies such as Fang and Solana have risen.

Perpetual futures funding rates rise

Market optimism is growing, and according to data from Coinglass, the weighted open interest funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures on major exchanges climbed to 0.0113% in the latest 8-hour contract period.

QCP Capital analysts downplayed the possibility of Trump having a major catalytic effect on the crypto market ahead of the January 20 inauguration, noting that when Bitcoin first topped $100,000 on December 5, perpetual futures funding rates were Big surge: "However, funding levels this time around remain healthy and we don't expect a run on stocks in the near term."

Crypto trader Gordon Grant also mentioned derivatives indicators.

Gordon Grant pointed out that for the third consecutive year, early January saw a large number of short-term Bitcoin call options trades, which in the past has often heralded a significant rise in Bitcoin prices. The options market is an important tool for gauging market sentiment and predicting future trends. Active trading in call options indicates that market participants expect prices to rise.

He specifically mentioned that the volume of call options expiring on January 7 with a strike price of $103,000 exceeded 1,000 units, which strongly hints at market expectations for a rise in Bitcoin prices in the short term. Grant also compared the current situation to early 2023 and January 2024, when heavy call options trading ahead of the launch of BlackRock’s iBIT on January 10 drove BTC from $40,000 to $48,000.

"The market moves appear to be somewhat similar, especially with Trump's inauguration being seen by some traders as a near-term inflection point," Grant said. He noted that the options term structure shows a premium for post-inauguration dates, which may reflect Outbound traders are pricing in positions driven by potential market-moving events.

Although current market signals tend to be optimistic, there is still a certain degree of uncertainty in the market. A key question is, is this rally driven by short-term speculation, or does it mark the beginning of a sustained Bitcoin rally into 2025? This requires observing market performance from a longer time dimension.

Grant pointed out that the overall picture of the options market, including volatility and skewed term structure, indicates that investors are more inclined to believe that there will be a long-term upward trend this year, rather than just short-term small fluctuations, which provides a good basis for future market trends. a certain reference.

Coinbase premium returns to breakeven point

After a period of intense sell-off between December 18, 2024 and January 2, 2025, Bitcoin’s premium on the Coinbase exchange returned to neutral levels on January 4, CryptoQuant Anonymous Bitcoin Analyst IT Tech In an article, it was explained that the return of premiums to break-even points indicates "a pick-up in sentiment among U.S. and institutional investors."

However, it is important to note that the Coinbase premium primarily reflects U.S. retail investor sentiment, not institutional sentiment.

On-chain analyst Darkfost said the 30-day rolling change in retail-scale trading volume below $10,000 has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024. With the rate of change falling below -10%, Darkfost believes this means retail interest has dropped significantly, but this also opens up an ideal buying opportunity in the long term.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin experienced a bullish structural breakout (BOS) after closing above $97,000 last week.

Anonymous market trader Crypto Scient emphasized that $100,000 remains a critical turning point for Bitcoin. Crypto Scient said: “Unless $99,000 is broken and turns into support, I think we will see lower prices in January. The trigger for me is very simple: break and hold $99,000, otherwise it will Retesting the $90,000-88,000 area.”