Disaster turns into gambling? Polymarket stirs up controversy again with 'California wildfire prediction market'

Original title: Polymarket faces backlash over『sick』California wildfire markets
Author: Protos Staff
Compiled by: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor's note: The article criticizes the controversy caused by the prediction market platform Polymarket due to users speculating on California wildfires. In the context of wildfires that have killed many people and evacuated hundreds of thousands of people, users are betting indifferently on the development of the disaster, with some predicting that the fund pool is as high as $100,000. This kind of "gambling" of public disasters has raised strong moral questions.

The following is the original content (the original content has been edited for ease of reading and understanding):

Fire 'gambling' sparks outrage

Polymarket has been widely criticized for its "disgusting" prediction market, which is betting on the ongoing California wildfires.

The wildfire broke out in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday and quickly spread across Los Angeles. So far, five deadly wildfires have resulted in the evacuation of more than 137,000 people, and five people have died.

Many Polymarket users took the opportunity to create multiple prediction markets about the spread of the fire, when the fire will be controlled, and the resignation of potential politicians. Trading volumes on some markets have approached $100,000.

However, many netizens do not buy into the publicity of these markets and Polymarket. "Betting on wildfires is really sick," one X user said. Another user said betting on such a tragedy "is an unacceptable and shameless act in any case."

Some users are more worried that wildfire prediction markets may encourage gamblers to set fires to increase the success rate of their bets. One user pointed out that the odds on these markets are based entirely on gamblers' emotions, and responded to Polymarket's post by saying: "No, there is no such thing as '48% chance of spreading', just 48% of people betting on it" will happen."

For Polymarket, such backlash is nothing new. Polymarket faced similar criticism last year when the platform allowed users to bet on whether the Titan submersible would explode, killing five passengers.

In an attempt to mitigate its liability in at least 10 different wildfire markets, Polymarket added a brief disclaimer claiming it uses the "wisdom of the crowd" to create "accurate and objective event forecasts." "The devastating Pacific Palisades wildfires are one such event and Polymarket is able to provide valuable real-time answers to those directly affected in a way that traditional media cannot," the statement said.

It’s worth noting that if you do get affected by wildfires, it’s better to rely on news organizations that are actively reporting on the events rather than crypto prediction sites.

Crypto companies close to fire

In addition to threatening millions of California residents, the rapidly spreading wildfires also pose a serious threat to multiple crypto companies and prominent community members. Many people have lost their homes and belongings, including valuable hardware wallets.

The staff at the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office is located directly south of the Palisades and Sunset fires. Swan Bitcoin, which hosted the Pacific Bitcoin conference in Santa Monica, had many employees in the southern area of ​​the fire.

Blockchain service provider BlockDaemon is headquartered in Los Angeles, where it is co-located with SuperVerse, another crypto game developer. SpringLabs, a blockchain-based identity authentication and tokenization company, is headquartered in nearby Marina del Ray.

Some companies are relatively lucky. So far, the Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles has not been affected by the fire. Crypto entertainment venues DaBank and Jungla in Hawthorne and North Hollywood have also not been affected by wildfires.