Estimated billing for Pump.fun: Official income from sending one coin is US$68, users will receive 70% of the profit or pay a handling fee

Author: Frank, PANews

Pump.fun has recently caused a public opinion crisis. The American law firm Burwick Law filed a lawsuit against Pump.fun and the fraudulent project parties on behalf of investors who lost money on the platform. Burwick Law said the announcement came after months of working with investors and called on more victims to fill out registration information. In addition, there was a lot of discussion on social media a week ago about the number of Pump.fun addresses with profits exceeding US$10,000, which was only 55,000. Alon, the founder of Pump.fun, had to stand up and respond to the inaccurate data. It seems that after players have contributed a lot of fees and interactions, who is the biggest winner of Pump.fun has become a topic that everyone is more concerned about.

A casino of freedom or a breeding ground for conspirators?

Regarding the news that Burwick Law has taken legal action against Pump.fun, many crypto KOLs have also joined the discussion. Well-known on-chain detective Zach victims or investors”.

In this regard, Burwick Law posted the views of its partner Max Burwick: "Like in casinos, regulated gambling is defined by rules and immutable statistics. Imagine if you go to a casino and the dealer can A card game called "rug pull", would you make the same argument as here?"

In fact, the views of ZachXBT and Max Burwick basically represent the two public attitudes towards suing Pump.fun. Some people believe that transactions on Pump.fun are voluntary for users, and prosecution is simply a sign that they cannot afford it. Moreover, from a mechanical point of view, Pump.fun has also reduced the risk of fraud in many MEMEs. Others believe that Pump.fun charges a large amount of fees, but allows some addresses to manipulate the market without censoring the content, so it should be prosecuted.

Of course, we still have no way of knowing whether Pump.fun violated relevant regulations, and whether this lawsuit will be a victory for investors or turn into a farce.

How many winners are there on Pump.fun?

But beyond that, how much profit do users on Pump.fun make? Who is the biggest profiteer of Pump.fun? This information may be more meaningful to the average user. PANews did some summary analysis of Pump.fun’s long-term data.

In fact, as early as January 11, a discussion on social media about the number of addresses with profits exceeding US$10,000 on Pump.fun was only 55,000 (accounting for 0.408%), causing a commotion. Pump.fun founder Alon He also responded specifically to this, believing that this statistic is inaccurate. The reasons are: 1. The purchase of tokens that have been bound to Raydium is not included, and most of the income is generated after the tokens are bound. 2. Failure to consider unrealized profits. 3. Many of the more than 13 million traders are robots and AI agents. About 30% of wallets have only conducted one transaction, and these wallets cannot be real humans.

Here Alon refers to the data table of "Pump.Fun Alpha Wallets" created by @adam_tehc on Dune. It should be noted that regarding the data of @adam_tehc, Alon did not say that the data was distorted, but that the data was not complete enough to explain the profitability of Pump.fun users.

In the subsequent analysis, PANews will also partially use the data on several Dune dashboards created by @adam_tehc, but only choose to use the basic statistical data, such as the total number of addresses, transaction volume, cumulative revenue, etc. In addition, since there is no direct user profit and loss analysis data, the following analysis is based on analysis, estimation, and inference using established data. Such analysis methods are not necessarily very accurate, but we hope to be able to draw conclusions from a certain Some angles illustrate some issues.

Since there are many data categories used, some basic data are listed here first (data as of January 16):

Pump.fun cumulative revenue: $416,810,737 ($416.8 million)

Pump.fun’s cumulative issued tokens: 6,096,526 (6.096 million)

Cumulative number of Pump.fun user addresses: 14,130,923 (14.13 million)

Pump.fun’s revenue in the past 30 days: 105182383 ($105 million, this figure is on the high side, mainly because Pump.fun made several revenue collections on other DEXs in January).

Total statistical cumulative transaction volume: 36030577862 (36 billion U.S. dollars, Note: This data is from April 22, 2024 to January 6, 2025. According to the cumulative revenue on April 22, it is approximately 9.65 million U.S. dollars, based on 1% procedures The total transaction volume before this is estimated to be approximately 965 million, so the total cumulative transaction volume is estimated to be approximately US$37 billion)

The average proportion of graduation tokens is 1.42%.

The above data comes from @adam_tehc's Pump.Fun data on Dune.

Number of transactions on Pump.fun in the past 30 days: 113,540,000 (113 million transactions)

Number of active addresses on Pump.fun in the past 30 days: 7795520 (7.79 million)

The above data comes from Solana browser Pump.fun Program data.

In addition, PANews also randomly counted 5,252 transactions on January 16 for 7 tokens on Pump.fun that were about to be filled. Through analysis of transaction behavior, there were 36 robot addresses and 909 real users.

Officials can earn $68 for each token issued

Based on the above statistical data, PANews calculated some data and obtained the following analysis results:

Token data:

Based on the total number of coins issued and total revenue data, we get the average official fee revenue per token to be US$68.

Based on the total trading volume and total token issuance, we calculate that the average trading volume per token is approximately $6,074.

User 's data:

Based on the total revenue and total number of users, it can be calculated that the average fee each user contributes to the official website is approximately US$29.49.

Based on the total revenue in the past 30 days and the total number of transactions in the past 30 days, it can be calculated that the revenue contributed by each transaction is approximately US$0.92. Based on the 1% fee level, the average single transaction of users in the past 30 days can be estimated. The size is approximately $92.63.

Based on the data of the past 30 days, we get that on average each user conducted 14.56 transactions in the past 30 days, each address contributed $13.49 in fees, and based on the overall user contribution, the fee was $29.49. It is calculated that the average number of transactions per address is approximately 31.8.

At this point, let’s sort out the data we got above again: the average single address conducted 31.8 transactions, and the average transaction size was approximately $92.63.

Combined with the basic data of the token, we can calculate that the average number of transactions generated by each token is about 65.5 transactions, and the average number of transactions that a user participates in a token is about 5.5 times. The average number of participating addresses per token is approximately 11.79 addresses.

70% of user profits were taken away by the official?

Next, we estimate the following ideal case. Assume that all users have a chance of buying graduated tokens. When these tokens are listed on Raydium, all users can sell them at double the profit every time. The transaction size for each purchase is also the average transaction size. Of course, in this process, for ease of understanding, we will assume that there is a user named "Average" whose all data is exactly the average.

Based on the results of the above calculation, we know that the graduation rate of tokens on Pump.fun is 1.42%, which means that the winning rate of this "average" player is approximately 1.42%. This "average" player's transaction size is $92.63 each time, and he has made a total of 31.8 transactions from the beginning to the present. Based on this data, we can calculate that this "average" bought graduation tokens a total of 0.45 times, and obtained a profit of US$41.88 after doubling the sales.

In this process, the "average" spent US$29.49 in handling fees. Of course, only his handling fees are calculated here, but not the amount he lost due to personal operations. We assume that he trades in the internal market every time. I was very lucky every time. Even if I couldn't buy the graduation tokens, I could make equal gains and exits every time without losing money.

According to the above algorithm, we can see that in an extremely ideal state (not considering losses), users can get an average profit of about 41.88 US dollars, but the handling fee they need to pay is as high as 29.49 US dollars, that is, in this relatively ideal situation In terms of revenue, Pump.fun basically took away 70% of users’ profits.

If such calculations are realistic, it may not be difficult to explain why many investors point their fingers at Pump.fun officials.

Of course, the calculations here may deviate from reality. For example, internal players may have an overall profit margin greater than 1 times after joining Raydium. However, this situation is unlikely. The vast majority of tokens quickly return to zero after being listed on Raydium. Taking the data on January 17 as an example, a total of 48,631 tokens were issued on Pump.fun within 24 hours. During the same period Tokens within graduation are 697 During the same period, Raydium was newly launched with a market value greater than 81,000 US dollars (graduated market value), and the number of tokens with more than 100 transactions remained at 214. That is, only 30% of the tokens can be maintained after being listed on Raydium. Graduation market capitalization.

Finally, the above data calculation methods are estimates and projections and do not fully represent the facts. However, judging from the overall data, the team of Pump.fun is the biggest beneficiary of this MEME craze anyway. Only by producing an official data as soon as possible can we provide guidance and basis for users and explain the problem better. .