Global Trade Nuclear Explosion 72 hours: How to tear the Wall Street Consensus on Trump's "Tariff Tsunami"

Author: Jinze

When the S & P index was confidently pulled out of the Yang Line on Friday, the traders have not realized that the Washington Midnight Fax is spit out the shocking document to rewrite the global script -the Trump administration uses a paper with a paper paper The official document has pushed the trade war in the United States and other countries to the nuclear deterrent stage of "ensuring the destruction".

Following the day before yesterday , the relatively mild tariff scenarios I preset did not occur, and the tax increased was fully exempted from the energy part. In Canada, it was not soft. Immediately returned to a 25% peer tariff for $ 155 billion in US goods.

This has touched the US tariff cross retaliation clauses, showing that the situation is upgrading, so it is expected that the expectations of Canada's kneeling will also fade a lot. It is just that China and Mexico have also threatened to retaliate, but it has not been clearly announced that this has left some space for the downgrade of the two countries and the United States (although the possibility is not high).

It has been said that the market has underestimated tariffs, because Trump originally said that the tax result that he had to be added on the first day was not moving in two weeks, and a 301 survey was launched. This is at least a few months a year The survey, so most analysts firmly have the negotiation method of "extreme pressure" to increase tariffs on allies, and tax increases are a few months later.

The CNN sorted out this very good. Another perspective shows that the policy is verbally communicated. It is expected to be blurred. Why do you generally believe that you will “comprehensively” tariffs and do not pricing this:

U.S. stocks rebounded violently last week, and the index returned to a high level. It also confirmed that there was no effect on the price. If it fell last week, it might be fine.

Last week, the possibility began to pay attention to this possibility, which was the second half of Friday. So it is too late to pricing. The diving of coins on the weekend fully illustrates how the market has begun to attach importance to this matter and lags.

It is inevitable that US stocks are empty and dual -bonds. If gold is going to fall together, it is a liquidity crisis. It will be oversold. It is a good opportunity to buy.

The marginal impact on China is compared to allies, because China already has an average of 20-30%of tariffs, and an additional 10%is okay. The average tariffs in Mexico and Canada are single -digit, and the marginal changes are mostly. Therefore, China's stock market may be limited.

In addition, Trump also posted a post with policy, calling on everyone to live a life of "tightening pants belt", which will strengthen the market's expectations that the market may last for a longer period of time:

Therefore, in the context of insufficient valuation, every day of high tariffs maintains one day, and more negative impacts will be caused over time: the longer the time, the signs of no constructive contact and revenge in other countries, the more these tariffs, the more It may be regarded as permanent -the more negative the market response.

Regarding the future, if optimists should pay attention to three directions, one is whether there is a progress in negotiation and reconciliation with Sino -Mexico, and the other is whether there is a ban in the US courts. The third is that Trump will definitely see the market's concerns about the economy. There will be some favorable policies such as relaxation of supervision, liquidity assistance, and other taxes. For example, individual taxes, if some of the above can be performed, you should stop falling.

To further explain the second point, in fact, Trump's tariffs on Saturday are quoting the "International Economic Emergency Status" (IEEPA). In theory, as long as this is quoted, the president can not only change the tariff casually, but also freeze any foreigner or government assets And this kind of freezing is not only domestic, but it can also be transnational (requires foreign cooperation), which is equivalent to the power of all countries' birth and killing by Trump. (Randomly starts this method to provide legitimacy for unconventional means, it will only strengthen the long -term credit of the United States and the US dollar more firmly with the United States)

However, because IEEPA is mainly used for economic and financial sanctions in the history of IEEPA, this is the first time that it is used to collect import tariffs, so the relevant parties (such as the damage to the US import and export companies say that the interests are damaged) may seek temporary ban. The practice, so in the next few days, it will be a major test of Trump's power, which may lead to additional fluctuations in the market.

Some friends think that this time it is temporarily banned from the citizenship signed by Trump on the first day. Because this is a contradiction between the internal affairs, it is unanimous, so the court cannot interfere. "This international game, this kind of international game, I can't bind my hands and feet. "I agree with this, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the possibility of the court interference in the court, and even may sing a double reed with Trump. For a period of time, this is the least impact on the economy, but it is also the practice of pressure on the opponent's limit. Of course, this is the possibility of interpretation.

Anyway, paying attention to this point, if there is news, the violence will rebound.

However, I am more and more feel that he really wants to use tariffs to subsidize individual taxes, because the United States does have no tax 100 years ago, and Trump believes that the economy can still develop well.