Is AI Agent the next inscription track? Let’s talk about this point of view from the underlying logic

I believe that many people have been confused by the consecutive days of market decline, so that the originally vibrant new narrative of AI Agent has also been cast into a dark cloud. Thousands of words converge into one question: Has the new narrative of AI Agent been declared over? To be honest, I don’t know whether the currency price has bottomed out, but the narrative evolution of AI Agent is still smooth. Next, let’s talk about some opinions:

1. Not much to say to comfort me. Like everyone else, this wave of people who have good expectations and have confidence in AI Agent are suffering from the continued shrinkage of their position values.

The core reason is that although the primary market Build has a clear "value investment research" direction of pursuing AI infra, framework standards, and applications, the secondary market is too meme-oriented, and the team is also a bit rough. The overall AI Agent market is in chaos. The risks far outweigh the opportunities.

Therefore, when the macro-environment is uncertain and the direction of the pie is unclear, the AI ​​Agent track, as a cutting-edge track on the chain, has naturally become the first target for capital hedging, which makes the track with insufficient liquidity. It is more difficult for the Tao to resist the big market fluctuations, so it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the small price will be cut in half and the big price will be almost zero. But don’t forget, perhaps because of this, once the market environment stabilizes and opportunities arise again, the AI ​​Agent track will most likely be the first to take off.

2. There are various signs that the potential of AI Agent’s new narrative has just emerged and is unlikely to die down. On the one hand, the new force of AI entrepreneurs overflowing from web2 are increasingly paying attention to the potential opportunities in the web3 field, and more outstanding teams and projects will flock to web3 to try new possibilities. On the other hand, most of the old narratives of web3 that are stuck in trouble will firmly grasp the new narrative of AI Agent to try for new breakthroughs. Many well-known VCs and regular web3 teams are planning and nurturing new projects.

In short, AI Agent represents the hope of the whole village. Its potential has just begun to explode, and it does not have the fundamentals to stop and declare an end now. In particular, the collective entry of some VCs and mature project parties will shake up the current chaos caused by the team being too grass-roots and further increase the industry's technical threshold (standardization) and degree of involution. For retail investors, it means that the stability and maturity of the track will be improved;

3. The two major AI Agent camps, #ai16z and #Virtual, have exposed their own problems after this wave of turmoil, including ai16z’s confusion in resource integration, uncertainty in the development potential of Virtual’s closed-source ecosystem, etc. After such big fluctuations, it is a good thing to be able to withdraw from the Fomo state and calm down. If any force is overly mythical, it will not be conducive to the subsequent explosion of greater potential.

After all, ai16z, as a big commercial IP, is a spiritual totem. Open source innovation and community vitality represent the real future of ai16z. No matter what the market Fud @shawmakesmagic’s character is, as long as the developer group behind it still surrounds ElizaOS If the framework changes, the future of ai16z will be immeasurable;

The disadvantage of Virtual's closed-source ecology lies in the positive/negative spiral characteristics of its Tokenomics, which are outstanding during the market rise period and the correction period. However, this is because its hype attribute is greater than its application value. I am more concerned about the closure of Virtual. How does the source mode create more @aixbt_agent single AI applications with higher experience levels?

4. AI Agent has made a hasty move in the past three months from AI MEME, AI single application, AI framework and standards, AI chain engineering, AI metaverse, DeFai and other directions. This speed of evolution is actually very dangerous. Take frameworks and standards as an example. No matter how extravagant they are, they can't change the perception of "painting the pie". The current track is still in the stage of using a single AI to change users Mindshare. Without the richness of the application market, it is just an involution framework and standards, which is meaningless.

The final analysis lies in the confusion of the market's value evaluation system for the new direction of AI Agent. Many artificial framework standards, metaverse and other directions that seem more illusory are more likely to be valued higher, but this is not the case.

The foundation of the development of the AI ​​Agent track is "application-first". Any concept and direction will be useless if it cannot be based on application. If after a round of hasty hype, it is found that it has become nothing but chicken feathers, then there is no doubt that single AI Applications are the focus of the next stage of competition. Multi-modal interaction, AI metaverse, and DeFai can all be speculated, but please take out the Agent for a walk first.

5. The trend of overall "chaining" of AI Agents will still exist, but it is time for phased project delivery. Currently, the ElizaOS framework only has some practical primary solutions in the areas of Memory, Character, etc. There will be many difficulties to overcome in order to incorporate the idea of ​​chained decentralization.

For example, in terms of DA capabilities, traditional layer 2 achieves limited DA expansion through off-chain zk Proof proof and on-chain distributed verification. How can the dynamic prompt input and output of the LLMs large model be ZK-ified, and how can the data availability be tested after a long period? It is a big project; for another example, the Oracle capability seems to be a simple way to feed the implemented on-chain + off-chain data to the AI ​​Agent, but how to balance real-time performance and computing overhead, the complexity of the on-chain data and the availability of off-chain data Letters, etc. are all big challenges.

Therefore, I still firmly believe that "chaining" will be the main theme of the next evolution of AI Agent, but how to deliver some truly valuable scalable and verifiable solutions is the key. Simply applying the narrative of the old chain to AI Agent cannot be said to be impossible, but there are still many engineering implementation details that need to be refined.

above.

Although there is a high probability that the direction of AI Agent will be dominated by "chaos" in the future, AI Agent is a new direction used to redeem the old narrative, which means that the market will be extremely picky and harshly examine all its evolution trends.

Like some who are trying to move VC coin high FDV into the field of AI Agent, people like AICC who are full of elite predatoryism, like some Li Kui party who harbor evil intentions and just use web3 as a financing channel. A word of advice, AI Agent is ultimately a counterattack by grassroots forces. It will succeed or fail the community. Projects that cannot bundle the interests of the community people and build them together will not go far.