K33 Encryption Brief: Bitcoin indicators weaken, and the market may be on the night before the market changes

Original title: "Bitcoin market in 'lethargic condition' not seen since before US election, says K33"

Author:Brian McGleenon

Compiled: Tim, PANews

Report quick look

• Bitcoin is still in a low volatility, and risk-averse traders are pushing down yields, trading volumes and futures premiums. However, K33 Research said that this situation generally does not last long.

• Analyst Vetle Lunde pointed out that although the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration is a positive factor in the long run, the current market uncertainty remains and traders should be cautious before a clear direction appears.

Bitcoin's low volatility continues

According to K33 Research, Bitcoin is still in a low volatility, down 2% a week. Risk-averse traders push returns, volatility and trading volume to their lowest points in months.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, pointed out that while the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration is good news for bitcoin and the industry in the long run, short-term uncertainty is curbing market activity.

"Bitcoin indicators are weakening, such as trading volume, yield, option premium, ETF capital flows, all of which are back to levels that have not appeared before the election," Lunde said in a report on Tuesday. In a downturn, volatility has dropped to a few months lows.”

Lunde stressed that 37% of the top 100 U.S. stock markets currently have higher monthly volatility than Bitcoin, a level that has not appeared since October 2023. However, he went on to urge that such low volatility periods generally do not last too long and traders should be prepared for sudden changes in the market.

He added: "Overall risk aversion indicates that traders are ready to deal with downward volatility, while the current moderate leverage level indicates a smaller potential threat to serial liquidation."

CME Bitcoin Futures suggests that market changes are imminent

Lunde's analysis of CME Bitcoin futures shows that the futures premium rate has dropped below 5% in recent times, and this situation rarely occurs. Looking back at the data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums usually occur at the same time as weak market performance, and this situation may be affected by the long-term bear market in 2022.

In futures trading, the basis refers to the price difference between futures and spot of the same asset. When the futures price is higher than the spot price, there will be a premium, which usually means bullishness in the market; and when the futures price is lower than the spot price (discount), it indicates a downward trend.

He again stressed that Bitcoin tends to perform best with strong basis and urged the market to remain cautious in the current uncertainty.