Matrixport Market Observation: BTC prices rebound, macro expectations and risk aversion demand drive the market to warm up

Last week, BTC prices fluctuated and rose, and market sentiment shifted from panic to cautious optimism as positive information released on tariffs alleviated some market anxiety.

On April 8, the BTC price opened at $79,163.24, and opened the upward channel after hitting a low of $74,620 on the 9th. On the 13th, affected by the active speech of Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller, market sentiment rebounded, and BTC prices rose to a maximum of $86,100. The current price is stable around $85,000, with the largest increase in the week 15.38%. The ETH trend is basically consistent with BTC, and is currently stable at around $1,600, with a maximum increase of 22.12% during the week (Data source: Binance Spot, April 15 14:30).

The market has gradually adapted to macroeconomic policies and monetary policy adjustments, and the three major stock indexes that have experienced two weeks of fluctuations have all rebounded. As of the close of April 14, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose nearly 1%. However, the US dollar continued to be weak and the exchange rate generally fell.

Market Interpretation

BTC 's emotions rebounded after the volatile consolidation, and the market responded positively to expectations of tariff easing

On April 14, BTC rose 1.6% to close to $85,000, and ETH rose 2.7% to $1,630. The CoinDesk 20 index rose 1.2%, mainly driven by SOL and AVAX. On-chain data shows that BTC network activity and liquidity continue to improve. Swissblock pointed out that the current liquidity indicator is above a key level and there may be room for short-term prices to rise.

In early April, Trump announced retaliatory tariffs and suspended the imposition of new tariffs on other countries that have not yet issued counter-sanctions policies, resulting in sharp short-term market fluctuations. BTC was under pressure for a while, but stabilized and rebounded after a multi-day fluctuation. The current price was stable around $85,000, and the lower point had been significantly repaired.

Market sentiment gradually turned to cautious optimism after experiencing initial panic. Federal Reserve Director Waller said that if tariffs trigger an economic slowdown, it will support an earlier rate cut. Inflation fell to 2.4%, which also provides room for loose policies. The EU has postponed taxes on the US to further alleviate external pressure.

U.S. bond turmoil triggers systemic concerns, BTC may be favored by safe-haven funds

On April 14, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.49%, the largest single-week increase in 20 years. Trump's high tariff policy triggered a wave of selling, with US bonds falling simultaneously with US stocks, and funds flowing to safe-haven assets such as gold and yen. The US dollar is under pressure, and the market has shaken its position as "risk-free assets" in US bonds.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. bond market is "close to chaos" and that the Federal Reserve may be forced to intervene if liquidity deteriorates further. He noted that the Fed often only takes action when it “starts to panic.”

Referring to the background of the 2020 crisis, BTC received inflows during the Fed's massive easing. If the financial system is tense again, BTC may once again benefit from its non-sovereign attributes.

ETH annual supply growth is 0.805%, and the deflation target is still not achieved

As of April 13, the annualized supply growth rate of ETH was 0.805%, with a net increase of approximately 3.47 million ETH, although EIP-1559 has destroyed more than 4.58 million ETH, and the current total supply is 120.69 million.

In terms of ecological competition, Solana's market share continues to increase, and the active users on the chain far exceed the ETH main network. RWA projects have migrated multi-directional links such as Polygon, aggravated the outflow of ETH value.

Currently, ETH faces challenges such as high inflation, unattractive pledge returns (annualized 3.2% vs. Fed rate 5.25%), reduced validators and regulatory restrictions (such as SEC restricting the participation of ETH pledged ETFs). The low activity of the mainnet makes it difficult for it to achieve its deflation goal.

Market hot spots

US March CPI lower than expected, slowing inflation has increased Fed policy game

On April 10, the US March CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than the previous value of 2.8% and market expectations of 2.5%; the core CPI fell to 2.8%, the lowest since 2023.

The Fed is weighing the risk of a slowdown that could pose by Trump’s tariffs. The current policy game is intensifying, and uncertainty in interest rate paths will still dominate market expectations.

Trump tariff adjustments release signals, technology and crypto industries benefit in the short term

On April 13, the Trump administration announced exemption of import tariffs on smartphones, laptops, chips and semiconductor devices, aiming to balance inflationary pressures and supply chain security. Manufacturers such as TSMC benefit from equipment tariff exemptions, the cost of crypto mining machines and on-chain infrastructure has declined, and market risk preferences have rebounded.

Waller says tariff inflation may be temporary, the Federal Reserve may revisit inflation path

On April 14, Federal Reserve Director Waller said that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term and there is still uncertainty in the policy path. He reiterated that earlier and larger rate cuts will be considered as the risk of economic slowdown rises.

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