Matrixport Market Observation: The macro market enters a low volatility cycle, and ETH may usher in a bottoming rebound

Over the past week, BTC has fluctuated narrowly around $100,000, with a maximum volatility of 3.86% during the week, and its current price fluctuates around $95,000. After ETH 's market sentiment bottomed out, the market attention increased significantly due to community sentiment and hulezhi incident. The price of ETH reached a maximum of $2,849.70, an increase of 11.88% during the week. Currently, the ETH price fluctuates in the range of 2,600$ -2,700$ (Binance spot price real-time data on 17:00 on the 18th).

The macro market has entered a low-volatility cycle, with high growth, low inflation and lower interest rates coexisting. Trump's takeover did not bring about a strong catalytic effect of market forecasts. The US dollar index fell after fluctuations, and the fickle tariff policies also allowed the market to gradually enter a state of immunity. In contrast, the market expects Trump and Putin to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.

Market analysis

**Fed 's June interest rate cut expectations rebounded to 60%, inflation

remains the current focus**

The release of core economic data has pushed up market expectations for a rate cut in June in the past week. Amid higher-than-expected CPI data and weak retail sales data, rate cut expectations rebounded to 60%. Inflation remains an important focus of the current market, and the Federal Reserve is committed to reducing market concerns about inflation.

Powell said, "CPI data is almost higher than all predictions, but I want to remind you two points. First of all, we will not be overly optimistic because of one or two good data, nor will we be overly optimistic because of one or two bad data. Pessimistic. Secondly, our inflation target focuses on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index because we think it better reflects inflation."

**Trump 's ever-changing tariff policy further boosts gold prices, and

gold delivery demand is strong**

Gold's primary hedging position is stable and has become the primary tool to hedge inflation. Over the past 25 years, gold prices have risen 10%, and spot gold delivery demand has been strong. According to Bloomberg, the amount of gold transferred by financial institutions to the U.S. COMEX approved vault has increased by 70%+ than usual.

Trump's fickle tariff policies combined with the Fed's attitude towards inflation have further boosted the market's demand for gold. In response, Tradu's senior financial commentator Nicos Zabullas said, "In the age of uncertainty, gold will naturally benefit from risk aversion and central bank purchases. However, if inflation rebounds, the Fed will More cautious monetary easing measures could push up the dollar and curb gold demand.”

**ETH market trading sentiment is in pessimism, and may usher in a

rebound in dead cats**

Over the past 25 years, ETH price has fallen by more than 20%, and the actual volatility has also performed poorly in crypto assets and major stock indexes. The market's trading sentiment towards ETH has also fallen to the bottom recently. The strong application scenarios based on ETH and Trump's World Liberty Financial are also continuing to buy ETH, and ETH does not rule out the possibility of a dead cat rebound.

Since the beginning of this week, ETH has also rebounded relatively strongly, with the highest increase of ETH this week exceeding 11%. As the community regains interest in ETH and the conversion from SOL to ETH, the disadvantages of Meme coins appear in the liquidity shortage market, and the ETH ecosystem with strong usage attributes may rebound.

Market hot spots

**RBA cut interest rates for the first time in four years, hawkish

remarks have caused stock market to fall significantly**

The RBA lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut since November 2020 and a new low since October 2023, in line with market expectations. The RBA said there were signs that a decline in inflation could happen faster than expected. It is believed that if interest rates are lowered too quickly, there will be a risk of inflation falling back and stagnation.

"Although today's policy decision recognizes gratifying progress in inflation, the Commission remains cautious about the prospect of further policy easing and will continue to rely on data and dynamic assessments of risks to guide its decisions." After the resolution was announced, The Australian dollar rose briefly and then gave up its gains. Australian stock market fell due to hawkish remarks.

**BTC market adoption increases, pension funds or treasury in 12 U.S.

states hold a total of $330 million worth of Strategy stocks**

Cointelegraph reported that as of the end of 2024, 12 states in North America reported that their state pension funds or treasury held MSTR of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock, totaling $330 million.

Pension funds and treasury in California, Florida, Wisconsin and North Carolina have the largest exposure to MSTR, with the California Teachers’ Pension Fund holding 285,785 shares of MSTR worth approximately $83 million, ranking first. Other states that hold MSTRs in their public funds include Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Texas and Utah. ****