On the eve of the storm? The tug-of-war is unresolved, Bitcoin may experience significant fluctuations

Author: BitpushNews

Recently, the market has been in a tug-of-war, and BTC bulls and bears have repeatedly played between $100,000 and $96,000. In the past week, there has been a sharp retracement, falling below the support level of $91,000. As can be seen from the volatility, investment People's anxiety about short-term trends is heating up.

Long-term holder trends and market signals

On February 9, well-known analyst Maartunn shared a set of on-chain data: 14,000 7-10-year-old Bitcoins were moved on the chain.

This long-term dormant Bitcoin reentered circulation is often seen as an important signal, and these actions may indicate multiple motivations—long-term holders may prepare for potential ups, institutions may be re-adjusting positions, or market participation Those are concerned about the continued selling pressure. In any case, such a large number of old Bitcoin reactivates often heralds a coming sharp price volatility. Although such actions are not uncommon during market consolidation, they add more uncertainty to current market sentiment.

In addition, analyst DOM found an unprecedented "Doji" pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, which usually heralds market uncertainty, similar to the trend after the FTX crash in November 2022 .

"For the first time in Bitcoin's 15-year history, there have been three consecutive 'extreme cross' candle charts, with the physical part of each candle accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candle range. This marks extreme hesitation in the market," said DOM. The decision indicates that a large fluctuation is about to occur."

It is worth noting that in November 2022, Bitcoin had two consecutive "extreme cross" candlesticks, and the price rebounded by 620%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be on the verge of another explosive price volatility.

Key price levels and technical analysis

TradingView data shows that Bitcoin’s current price hovers around $97,600. Analyst Sebastian believes that to reignite the bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to first stand firm at the critical level of $98,000, which will lay the foundation for breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000. . Once Bitcoin successfully breaks through and stands firm at the $100,000 mark, it will confirm the strong return of bull momentum and is expected to further explore a higher supply range to start a new round of rising market.

However, the current demand range of $96,000 to $97,000 must be held to support potential ups. If this range is lost, it may cause more selling pressure. In this case, Bitcoin could fall below $95,000 and then fall to the demand range around $90,000. Such a trend will seriously hit market sentiment and further strengthen bearish expectations.

Bitcoin has also recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which usually indicates a significant price breakthrough.

Market analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin price is expected to break through the triangle's uptrend line and eventually reach its target of $116,000. According to the technical analysis rules, the calculation method of the upward target position is to add the maximum distance between the upward and downward trend lines of the triangle with the potential breakthrough point. This method provides a theoretical basis for Bitcoin's upward target.

Trend Outlook

Grayscale research director Zach Pandl predicts that Bitcoin could hit an all-time high in the first quarter of 2025, supported by Trump's favorable policies. Still, $80,000 is a popular target for many analysts in the near term. Investment research firm Bravo Research noted that if prices fall to this level, it will provide traders with the opportunity to "buy on dips".

To sum up, Bitcoin is currently at a key technical node, and the balance of strength between bulls and bears will determine the market trend in the short term. Investors need to pay close attention to the performance of two key levels, $98,000 and $96,000, and either side’s breakthrough could trigger severe market volatility.