OSL Trading Moment: BTC drops below $97,000 after surge, analysts warn of potential sharp pullback

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

Cryptocurrency ETFs attracted $585 million this month, mainly from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, despite profit-taking losses in December. At the same time, Calamos is planning to launch an innovative Bitcoin ETF that will limit potential gains while providing comprehensive loss protection through an annual reset mechanism. Bitcoin has performed well in 2024, becoming the seventh largest asset in the world and surpassing $102,000 for the first time in 2025. However, trading volume fell to its lowest level since 2021, and well-known analyst Peter Brandt even warned of a possible 50% correction, bringing uncertainty to the market.

On the regulatory front, Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, reached a $5 million settlement with the CFTC, resolving allegations of misleading during the launch of the first U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures contract. The positive news for the market continues, with the Coinbase Premium Index turning bullish and MicroStrategy adding 1,070 BTC. The cryptocurrency market moved higher on Monday, driven by increases in holdings by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. However, Bitcoin encountered resistance at the $108,000 mark and once fell below the psychological $100,000 mark. Still, continued strengthening institutional support and growth in the global cryptocurrency market provide momentum for Bitcoin to reach higher goals.

2. Key data (as of 09:20 HKT on January 8)

• S&P 500: 5,909.03 points (+0.47% during the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,489.68 points (+0.93% during the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.680% (+10.40 basis points during the year)

• US dollar index: 108.66 (+0.16% during the year)

• Bitcoin: $96,957 (+3.79% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $60.69 billion

• Ethereum: $3,394.61 (+1.49% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $33.32 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST on January 7)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$457.43 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$19.15 million

4. Important dates (Hong Kong time)

FOMC meeting minutes (03:00 a.m., January 9)

Non-agricultural employment data (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

5. Hot news

ZKsync Ignite has launched the first season of Ignite incentive program and will distribute 100 million ZK

Illuvium partners with Virtuals to introduce autonomous AI NPCs to its games

In 2024, ETFs and listed companies bought a total of 859,454 BTC, absorbing 4.3% of the circulating supply in one year.

Sol Strategies secures C$25M credit line to invest in Solana ecosystem

Arbitrum awards largest-ever developer grant to South Korean giant Rakuten to promote Caliverse blockchain integration

MicroStrategy to buy over $22 billion in Bitcoin in 2024

Usual will turn on the token fee switch before February 1st

Jambo will launch J tokens on Solana this month with a total supply of 1 billion

Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage

Backpack Exchange acquired FTX EU for US$32.7 million, and NFT project Mad Lads rose 24% in a short period of time

Binance Alpha adds HAT, AIXCB and NEUR

NVIDIA announces NVIDIA Cosmos, the “world foundation model”

Solana Mobile's second phone, Solana Seeker, is expected to launch in mid-2025

Babylon will launch the second phase of the test network on January 8

Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction

Anti-crypto Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Michael Barr resigns

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