OSL Trading Moment: Long-term Bitcoin holders’ holding reduction slows, bullish signals remain

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

The past week has seen several important developments in the cryptocurrency industry. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings increased significantly by 51%, and unrealized gains exceeded the $14 billion mark. It is worth noting that crypto KOL Jeremie Davinci predicts that Bitcoin is expected to reach $350,000 based on historical trends and current mining cost analysis.

At the same time, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, is expected to have differences on encryption policy with Trump, who may return to the White House. Market research organization Glassnode said that the price of Bitcoin is about 12% lower than the historical high. Long-term holders (LTH) are still reducing their holdings, but the speed has slowed down. The 30-day supply change rate shows that the reduction may reach a cyclical peak. History shows that the price of LTH may continue to rise after the peak of LTH holdings.

At the institutional level, some Meta shareholders have even proposed incorporating Bitcoin into corporate reserves, and listed companies continue to actively accumulate Bitcoin under the leadership of MicroStrategy. This is seen as a positive response to the successful launch of the US Bitcoin ETF. It is worth mentioning that with the rise of AI meme coins such as iDEGEN, some investors regard them as "Bitcoin alternatives." Mainstream investors and traders remain optimistic about the market outlook, believing that the activity of key addresses may push Bitcoin to exceed $100,000.

There was also regrettable news this week: a British man lost about 8,000 Bitcoins because his girlfriend accidentally threw a hard drive. However, there is good news from the regulatory level. North Dakota is considering using state funds to invest in Bitcoin. Crypto expert Timothy Peterson even bolder predicted that the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit $1.5 million in 2035. However, recent Bitcoin price fluctuations also remind investors to be wary of potential market risks.

2. Key data (as of January 13, 09:37 HKT)

• S&P 500: 5,827.04 points (-0.93% during the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,161.63 points (-0.77% during the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.769% (+19.30 basis points during the year)

• US dollar index: 109.63 (+1.06% during the year)

• Bitcoin: $95,156 (+1.86% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $19.37 billion

• Ethereum: $3,300.76 (-1.31% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $9.97 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST on January 10)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$149.35 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$68.48 million

4. Important dates (Hong Kong time)

Non-agricultural employment data (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: 256,000 / Previous value: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: 4.1% / Previous: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

PPI month-on-month (21:30 pm on January 14)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.3%

Core inflation rate year-on-year (21:30 pm on January 15)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

Inflation rate year-on-year (21:30 pm on January 15)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.7% / Expected: 2.8%

Retail sales year-on-year (21:30 pm on January 16)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.7% / Expected: 0.5%

5. Hot news

This week’s preview | Usual Protocol plans to turn on the income switch function; Ondo (ONDO) and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking

Data: ONDO, CHEEL, CONX and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts, of which CHEEL is worth approximately US$169 million.

This week’s macro outlook: CPI and “horror data” may subvert interest rate cut expectations, and the Fed turns to a cautious stance

Aave: ZKsync Era market grew 160% in the past week

Azuki: ANIME token will be launched on Ethereum and Arbitrum in January, with 50.5% allocated to the community

U.S. AI start-up financing will hit a record of US$97 billion in 2024, and global investment will focus on AI

FTX repayment preliminary distribution schedule announced, first repayment expected to start on February 25

The stock prices of 26 of the 31 listed Bitcoin mining companies have increased so far this year

Polymarket is defined as an illegal gambling website and blocked in Singapore

Aiccelerate DAO will increase token vesting in response to criticism of launch

USDC Treasury mints 250 million USDC on Solana chain

TON ecological MEME project DOGS releases development roadmap for the first half of 2025

Nasdaq-listed spirits company Heritage Distilling plans to build a Bitcoin reserve and accept it as payment

US state of Dakota proposes to establish digital assets and precious metals reserve

An employee of the National Center for Public Policy Research files a shareholder proposal for Bitcoin Reserve to Meta on behalf of his family

FDIC Vice Chairman Calls for More Open Approach to Crypto

New Hampshire Introduces Bill to Establish “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”

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