Pantera: Where is the next 100x opportunity in crypto adoption?

Author: Franklin Bi, Partner of Pantera Capital; Compiler: 0xjs@金财经

What does the path to mainstream cryptocurrency look like?

When you put aside the noise and guesswork, this is the most important question. As investors, our job is to explore the path to adoption because that's where we'll find the next 100x opportunity.

But the best venture capitalists don’t predict the future. They see the present very clearly. Regarding the year ahead, one thing is clear: 2025 will be a turning point for the crypto industry.

Imagine what the internet would be like if Jeff Bezos went to jail for selling books online. What would the internet look like if Steve Jobs was sanctioned for launching the App Store? Or what would the internet look like if Jen-Hsun Huang was forced to start Nvidia outside the U.S. because Operation Choke closed his bank account? This is the confusing period our industry is coming out of.

2025 is the first year in blockchain history that entrepreneurs, regulators, and policymakers will be able to finally unlock the path to adoption.

With the road ahead now open, we return to the original question: What lies ahead on the road to adoption? Where will the biggest opportunity—the next 100x or even 1,000x investment—appear?

Just as “SoLoMo” (Social/Local/Mobile) unlocked the potential of the internet in the 2010s, the convergence of three major trends will unlock cryptocurrency adoption from 2025 onwards :

• Gateways - bringing traditional financial systems into the blockchain track;

• Developers - Easily build on the Internet's native economic layer;

• Applications - Build meaningful applications for everyday life.

Gateways

From the introduction of electronic trading in the 1970s to today's digitization of payments, Wall Street has experienced 50 years of software upgrades. The steady, inevitable march of software cannibalizing finance has taught us one thing: All financial assets will eventually migrate to where they flow most freely, trade most efficiently, and have the highest value.

Today, blockchain networks underpin $3 trillion in crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.) and small but powerful asset-backed tokens (tokenized dollars and U.S. Treasuries). Financial assets held by households, governments and businesses around the world total more than $1,000 trillion (one quadrillion!). This means we still have 300x potential growth potential.

What part of the game are we in? Players haven't even gotten off the bus yet. Global balance sheets are now beginning to migrate to the blockchain track. To be successful, we need gateways to connect us to traditional financial systems.

We must scale the platform to effectively onboard new users and existing assets. Regional remittance platforms such as Bitso in Latin America are using blockchain to process more than 10% of U.S.-Mexico remittances . Tokenization platforms like Ondo are going head-to-head with Franklin Templeton and BlackRock to put more than $20 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds on the blockchain.

Cryptocurrencies are giving rise to the first truly global capital markets , powered by real-time settlement and borderless liquidity. But global markets require global trading venues. Exchanges like Figure and Avantis are integrating global supply and demand while transforming foreign exchange, credit and securities markets.

Finally, we need products that are compatible with existing systems, not just a parallel crypto world. They may look like Fordefi 's premium wallets for institutions . Or like TipLink’s simple, granny-friendly solution for sending payments .

What will it be like when we get there? We believe that one day the value of your net assets on the chain will exceed the value off the chain. Once migrated to the chain, your wealth can instantly flow around the world. It can be traded at low cost, without intermediary fees, and has access to global demand to realize its highest value. This is the point of no return.

Developers

There are currently approximately 100,000 developers developing applications on the blockchain. That’s half the size of a Silicon Valley tech giant. To achieve mainstream adoption, we need to increase this number 100 times and onboard 10 million developers.

Unleashing the creative potential of blockchain technology is critical. Just as providing better tools for mobile developers unlocked the potential of Apple’s App Store, we need tools that simplify building on-chain apps and creating useful new products.

In 2025, the blockchain development stack will take a major leap forward. A key step depends on making the blockchain itself more developer-friendly. Scaling solutions like Arbitrum’s optimistic rollup technology created cryptocurrency’s first “broadband moment.” However, upgrades like the Arbitrum Stylus could have a bigger impact. Stylus enables developers to write smart contracts using a variety of major programming languages ​​such as C, C++, and Rust , opening the door to more than 10 million developers worldwide.

Zero-knowledge technologies were once considered too scary to be practically developed. However, new tools like the StarkWare Development Kit make zero-knowledge implementation easier than ever. Today, zero-knowledge proofs are powering products like Freedom Tool , Rarimo’s blockchain voting tool that has been deployed in Russia, Georgia, and Iran to increase democratic participation.

The tools and infrastructure that support blockchain development will play a vital role in driving progress. Platforms like Alchemy are helping developers build and deploy on-chain applications at scale. By streamlining the development process, Alchemy has helped many projects succeed, from decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols to gaming applications. As the blockchain ecosystem continues to evolve, these developer platforms must keep pace and allow developers to push the boundaries of what is possible on-chain.

In 2025, the multi-chain world will continue to grow, probably at an even faster rate. As developers face increasingly complex challenges, new chains are emerging to address these challenges, each with their own strengths and weaknesses in terms of computation, execution, or decentralization. To cater to specific use cases such as gaming or trading, application-specific infrastructure such as B3 is taking shape. This explosion of chains, L2s and application chains requires seamless connectivity, which is where cross- chain liquidity solutions like Everclear and interoperability protocols like Omni come into play - allowing developers to focus on building novel applications program.

Web development has evolved from primitive coding to intuitive no-code solutions, now controlled by AI. We expect similar developments to follow in blockchain development. Every wave of technological advancements and developer-centric tools brings a new wave of talent. Eventually, building on- chain applications could become as simple as chatting with ChatGPT.

Applications

How many people are on-chain users today?

According to most estimates, the number of users on the chain is around 80 million. Much of this growth stems from cryptocurrency’s appeal as “Wall Street 2.0”—a new place to raise funds, speculate and send money. But expanding the number of users 100 times to 8 billion will depend on cryptocurrencies transitioning from Wall Street to Main Street.

2025 will likely be the turning point for mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. This will be blockchain technology’s “FarmVille moment.” FarmVille is Facebook's first social game hit. It fueled the network's first exponential growth, transforming it from a photo-sharing app into a global platform.

Cryptocurrency is accelerating toward its own “FarmVille moment.” Onchain functionality is being integrated into new games and social applications. Game studios like InfiniGods are creating first-time onchain users. Their mobile casual game King of Destiny has seen more than 2 million app downloads in the past year, attracting people who spend more time on Candy Crush than Coinbase.

On-chain gaming, social, and collectible activity account for approximately 50% of independent active wallets today. As we have a diverse user base participating in on-chain commerce, it’s clear that blockchain will disrupt more than just Wall Street.

A new class of “productive” applications is leading a new industrial revolution. The rise of the enterprise gave way to the rise of industrial networks. Also known as DePIN, these applications focus on underserved markets in areas such as wireless connectivity, hyperlocal data and human capital. They achieve this through on-chain coordination and market-driven mechanisms. Hivemapper is a decentralized mapping network that has mapped more than 30% of the world's roads, providing more timely and accurate data than Google Maps thanks to more than 150,000 contributors.

Importantly, these “productive” applications are tapping into real revenue streams. By 2025, we believe the DePIN industry's annual revenue will exceed the $500 million in 2024. These industrial-grade cash flows provide a path to profitability based on real-world utility, establishing a powerful business engine for new capital to flow into the on-chain economy.

But how do we get these apps into the hands of 8 billion people? 2025 will see the emergence of new distribution models capable of reaching hundreds of millions of consumers at scale. Cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken and Binance are creating their own chains to bring customers on- chain. Telegram and Sony are integrating Web3 capabilities into their hugely influential platforms. Gaming companies are relaunching popular games like MapleStory with on-chain functionality, potentially attracting millions of players. Institutions such as PayPal and BlackRock are launching on-chain financial and payment solutions.

The convergence of these trends in 2025 will lead to a critical turning point. When ordinary people have reason to spend 60 minutes a week on-chain, "on- chain" will become the new "online." Forget about “killer apps.” Just like we switch between applications on the internet, people will have many reasons to spend time on-chain. They may do it for fun, connection, or money. By then, the on-chain economy will quickly become part of our daily lives.

future outlook

Next year will usher in a new era where blockchain technology will begin to be integrated into our daily lives, just like the Internet. The transition from Wall Street to Main Street is no accident—it is accelerating, driven by entertainment, business, and practical applications.

To achieve this, we need to invest in more accessible gateways, improved technology and developer tools, and applications that solve real problems.

As mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies becomes a reality, the road ahead of us in 2025 remains filled with 100x opportunities.

As a wise man once said: “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”