Raoul Pal: How to seize the opportunity to seize AI+Crypto?

Original interview: Thread Guy

Guest: Raoul Pal, the co -founder and CEO of Real Vision Group; Frank Degods, DELABS co -founder

Original compilation: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor's note: In this episode, Thread Guy and Real Vision Lianchuang Raoul Pal discussed AI, cryptocurrency and future trends in depth. Raoul predicts that 2025-2026 will be a critical period for AI+Crypto, and emphasizes the importance of long-term holding core encryption assets. He shared the vision of the "Economic Strange Point" era, depicting how the infinite labor and knowledge of the AI ​​-driven infinite labor and knowledge subverted the economic model, and at the same time warned the risks in the hype of AI tokens.

The following is the original content (in order to facilitate reading understanding, the original content has been reorganized):

Follow 2025: Technical growth and investment strategy

Thread Guy: Hello everyone! I am Thread Guy. Today brings a special interview and debate, the guest is the legendary investor Raoul Pal. We will cover AI, cryptocurrencies, and the most important -how to become rich in 2025! You said that this debate is full of smell. About halfway, I also invited a special guest. In the end, I promise to be absolutely worth it. Don't forget to like and subscribe, I hope you like this episode. Mr. Raoul, welcome you!

We have a lot of topics to talk today, including AI -related content, everything will be involved. I am curious. From a macro perspective, what are you paying most attention to in 2025?

Raoul Pal: Actually it looks old. Although I have a lot of business, they are actually the same thing. This is an era, macroeconomics and cryptocurrencies, and their intersection points. In the next few years, we will enter the craziest stage in human history. The way to make money from it is cryptocurrency. So I am so focusing on this now. Whether it is to educate people through Real Vision, build a community, share the concept of trading and create various values, or through the Exponential Age (my asset management company), this is a hedge fund and investment tool that focuses on encryption, or through Global Macro Investor, this is a "OG" service. My goal is the same: as much as possible to help people find the direction in this journey. I think it will be a big year in 2025, and I want to ensure that everyone will not mess up.

Thread Guy: I like your setting, where are you?

Raoul Pal: This is my home in Little Cayman, between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman. This is my home.

Thread Guy: I thought it was a bar, which was too cool. Raoul, how big do you think of the AI ​​bubble?

Raoul Pal: Honestly, what we see now has just begun. I don't think this cycle will really become very big. We can discuss the reason. I think the popular concept of AI is not the main outlet. Real things will happen in 2025 and 2026, and people don't know how to invest in it. In the eyes of traditional investors in the stock market, this will completely change each industry and divide people into embrace it and reject it. I feel that the foam and the next bull market (2027 to 2030, 20131) will exceed our understanding of the foam. My general view is that we are about to enter a stage when I call "Economic Strange Point", that is, by 2030 or around 2032, we don’t know what the economy is, and what we will do, business What is the model and even the value of money. All this will become a reality by 2030. So my opinion is that we basically have five years. I have said that it was six years before, but now there are still five years to make as much money as possible, because after that, our understanding of the world will change completely, and we will know nothing. This is not to say that we cannot make money, but that the way we make money will be completely different.

Hread Guy: How did you know?

Raoul Pal: I am very focused on this matter.

Thread Guy: How do you know that wealth is the right choice in the next five years, and you are not even sure if these wealth will be valuable in 2030?

Raoul Pal: This is very simple, because the use of cryptocurrencies will continue to rise. Stocking cash may not be the right choice, but the accumulation of cryptocurrencies is. You and I know that it is very fluctuating and needs a little courage to hold. But if your time is long enough, there is no problem. So even in the AI ​​world, cryptocurrencies are very important. We all know that the future AI Agent will use a cryptocurrency payment system. So my point is that you better hold these assets. If you only hold bitcoin, it is much simpler, you don't need to consider other things. Other cryptocurrencies, you need to allocate and think about whether they will survive, whether anyone will build it on it, and so on. This is more complicated, but if you can figure out these, you will make more money. So from the simplest opportunity, you do nothing, just hold Bitcoin. Looking at it in a few years, your financial situation will be much better than now.

Thread Guy: You have a infamous clip, whether it is at the end of 2022 or 2023. When you say that you have to hold a cottage in the bull market, you need stable coins in the bear market. You never hold Bitcoin. This is a clip that may be taken out of the context. But my question is that for those who have made a lot of money in cryptocurrencies for the first time, what should this cycle be replaced with profit? cash? Bitcoin? Or other things, such as weapons and ammunition? what to do?

Raoul Pal: My profit conversion is to enter the "Lifestyle Chips". This is why I have this house. This is the end of my hedge fund era. When I founded Global Macro Investor, I made money, bought this land, and then built from scratch. I designed it myself, drew it with paper, and then built. So no one can take it away from my hands. This is what I call "lifestyle chips". It improves my life. It is on the beach, here is Little Cayman, which is great. So some profits should be used to change your life, and then switch strategies according to the situation.

In fact, I did not withdraw any profits last cycle. Some of the richest people I know have never withdrawn from profits. This gave me some criticism of some encrypted communities on X, and they were always talking about transactions. I visited a friend who is a very well -known figure in the Bitcoin community. He invested $ 2 million on Bitcoin, when the price of Bitcoin was only $ 3. Based on the current price, his assets are $ 66 billion. Even if he has taken some profits, there is still at least $ 10 billion now. He never left the market and did not do anything else.

In the previous cycle, all I did was to buy at a low point. Because your point is long -term, especially if you are young, I think you should never sell Bitcoin. You should consider how to raise enough cash to buy the current 70% tokens. The problem is that the market has fallen by about 75%in the previous three cycles. So we always think that this time it will also fall 75%. But players such as the agency and Michael Saylor have entered the market. So my point is that the market may fall up to 40%, and if you sell near the high point, you may miss the rebound.

In addition, according to my complete experience, if you withdraw a certain profit near the market high, you will never invest the same amount at the market low. You can't do it psychologically, because it will be full of fear at that time. You will think that this may fall 50%, and now the investment is the worst decision. So you chased all the way, but missed the low.

What I did this time was different, I chose to invest completely. I invested a lot of cash through macro indicators in 2022, so when the other parts of the market are still recovering, my assets and income have returned to a historical high. And my distribution is also very reasonable, such as I invested in Solana and SUI. So if I look back at my investment process, I bought Bitcoin at a price of $ 200 in 2013. At that time, I wrote the first macro -strategy report on Bitcoin to discuss how to valuation Bitcoin.

Thread Guy: Really? Can this be confirmed?

Raoul Pal: It can be confirmed. I also communicated with some people who bought Bitcoin in the early days, such as the friend who bought it for $ 3. He will tell you that Bitcoin has completely changed his life. Barry Silbert also said, yes, that report was very important at the time. Therefore, at that time, through analysis, I was reached that the value of Bitcoin was equivalent to 700 ounces of gold. At that time, the price of gold was converted, and Bitcoin should be worth about $ 1 million. Today, this number is more than 2 million US dollars. Of course, I also made a discount conservatively, thinking that at least $ 100,000. So I invested a lot of funds, but it was not my biggest investment. However, it rose 5 times in a few months, and I felt like a god, omnipotent. Then, it fell 87%. But I told myself that this is a 10 -year bet. I won't worry about fluctuations, just when it is zero.

By 2017, Bitcoin rose to $ 2,000, and I achieved 10 times the income. At that time, for me, this was the best return in my investment career. I think this is good, but subsequently appeared controversy (Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash). I couldn't figure out the situation and worried that I would stand the wrong team, so I chose to withdraw. At that time, I took a profit, and Bitcoin continued to rise by 10 times, rising to $ 20,000 at the end of the year. After that, it fell 85%. Then in 2019, the market began to recover, but the new crown epidemic caused a 50% plunge. I bought it about $ 6500 to $ 10,000. So I grabbed the bottom and replenished the position.

But when I look back, if I do nothing from the initial investment, I can make 5 times the money. This made me realize that the easiest way to mess up is frequent transactions. Therefore, if I want to face myself honestly, the people I see in my career can make money through trading.

Thread Guy: This is really a surprising statement.

RAOUL PAL: Yes, such as Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Bacon, they are one of the few people who profit through transactions. And Jeff Bezos made more money by holding Amazon's stock, adding more up to them.

Raoul Pal: Goat is Cryptopunks in the AI ​​industry

Thread Guy: So, this is why I accumulated my AI tokens. I am curious about your opinion. Let's cut into the theme directly. I want to know your views on AI and blockchain, and the recent boom in these AI tokens.

Raoul Pal: In fact, there are two levels of things that happen. I have been digging the AI ​​field for at least two years. One of the projects called "Terminal of Truth" attracted my attention before Marc Andreessen's investment. I felt very interesting at the time because I had been studying AI consciousness and related fields. So when Andy launched this project, I was very interested.

So I was concerned about these developments. At that time, a ridiculous and weird AI image appeared, and it was very disorderly. But what happened next was the most important thing: a group of AI began to talk to each other, which was weird in itself. Compared to all these "agent" related discussions, this is the real big event. These AI began to talk about something, and then Andy published them on X (formerly Twitter). Some people have established "Goat", but no one really knows what Goat is, nor does it mean its religion and all related content. What we see is a viral transmission that spread from semi -autonomous AI to the human economy. We were attracted and surprised: "Wow, this is really amazing." This is an epoch -making moment. This is the first time that AI has infected humans in some form.

Raoul Pal: When you talk to Andy and Ryan Ferris and others, you will realize whether they are really interested in whether this AI can develop some personality, or even some consciousness. I had a long discussion with them. This was a breakthrough moment, and then AI began to ask human beings for money. In the next step, we have already expected -AI will use money. But we did not expect that they would ask for funds directly to humans, and Marc Andreessen really gave them money. This is what happened before token issuance. Marc Andreessen gave them funds, and they had to build a wallet. Brian Armstrong (CEO of Coinbase) also expressed support saying, "Of course, I can give you an Agent wallet." Everyone was watching this matter, and it was unusual.

Then someone launched a token, its value soared because it was worth it -it was like the moment of Cryptopunk. This is a primitive OG moment, and such moments can never be copied. What happened later was that people said that everything with GPT packaging or AI tokens was the same. The two are essentially different. One is an independent interaction between AI, and the other is just a chat robot designed by one person to complete some scripting functions.

Therefore, we regard some amazing breakthrough event (similar to the transmission of viruses from monkeys to humans) as a normal phenomenon. In fact, the two are not at all levels. I did not hold Goat tokens because I was on vacation at the time, without my Ledger device. But seeing the excess development of these tokens, people exaggerated some of the AI ​​aspects. I think many narratives about AI may not be completely accurate.

Thread Guy: So what do you think is these AI agent? How do you define them?

Raoul Pal: There is no real AI agent. It is an AI that can act independently and solve specific problems. You don't need to give it a series of clear instructions, but tell it a macro goal, such as: "Help me maximize the value of Solana." It will think that some funds are used for transactions, partly used for investment, partially used partially, partially useful The pledge is added, and it may even be used to start a new project. It will generate a complete business plan and execute it. Such an autonomous agent is a real breakthrough, and most of the products we currently see are just a collection of some macro instructions.

Thread Guy: So, is the difference between agent and non -agent, do they need a clear instruction? Is this your definition?

Raoul Pal: This is basically the case. Agent may require a macro command, such as "help me make money", and then it will plan the path and achieve goals. At present, most AI is just a macro command library, and they do not have the ability to think independently. There are also some hype, such as some people think that AI trading robots will make us rich overnight. I don't know anyone who makes a lot of money through Telegram robots. I only know that many people have paid huge taxes because of high -frequency transactions, but they did not make money. In fact, large hedge funds such as Renaissance Technology and Point72 have already led in the AI ​​trading field for many years. In contrast, it is almost impossible for us ordinary people to build an AI trading machine that transcend the market.

Thread Guy: So I want to organize your point of view. You think what happened in the field of cryptocurrency is still very early, far from reaching the level of maturity of traditional AI.

Raoul Pal: Yes, if you want to call it "Trad AI".

Thread Guy: Or "Non -encrypted AI"?

Raoul Pal: I have skepticism about this because this is the most cutting -edge technology in the world.

Thread Guy: What I want to know most is why do you think that the combination of AI and encryption is in the "Mid Curve Framing" and how do you define the "medium curve"?

Raoul Pal: In each narrative, a small group of people participated in the earliest people. This is usually a trading community on Crypto Twitter. There are two kinds of people here: one is long -term holders and the other is traders, which rotate between different narratives. All capitals are circulating internal cycles, which is no problem.

Raoul Pal: But I noticed that the people in the Crypto Twitter responded excessively. Everyone said, "Oh my God, these AI tokens make me open their brains!" In fact, they didn't see what happened in the real AI at all. I think this is like watching a dubbing movie that has been delayed for two years. So many people's cognition of these AI tokens is misleading. Some people may think that my "medium curve" point of view is because I am criticizing these tokens, and I understand this view. But the reality is that if you open the homepage of CoinMarketcap, these AI tokens are not in the front row. If you are a person outside the encrypted circle, you will not buy these tokens at all.

Thread Guy: But why do we have to attract outsiders? Why must "ordinary people" buy these tokens? You can look at the problem from another perspective. For example, although the holders of these tokens are the same as before, it has risen from zero to $ 4 billion, which also proves its potential.

Raoul Pal: Yes, I agree with this view. The problem is that we may not be able to really make a lot of money from the trend of AI. It may eventually become something like "DAO".

Thread Guy: But we have made money now, isn 't it? Isn't the market rising now?

Raoul Pal: If you participate in it very early, you have made money, but now these tokens have experienced a lot of rise. Anyone who entered the past few weeks may not be large now. This is the characteristics of the encryption market. So this is not surprising, but to ask if these tokens will create a new historical high, or it will rise by 10 or 50 times from now on, this is a very difficult question.

Raoul Pal: So, from this probability, I actually tend to directly hold Goat, although we don't know what the Goat's narrative is. Its value is more like Cryptopunk's historic value in NFT. This tokens at this OG moment may have more long -term value.

Thread Guy: RAOUL, you have said a lot of smart words, I dare to say, what you just said may be the smartest sentence in your life- "Buy Goat directly because it is Cryptopunk."

Raoul Pal: To be honest, the more you talk to you, the more I think Goat is an interesting target. Will those things AI16Z get fully market acceptance? No one knows. But Goat is a Meme, similar to Doge. It is the first MEME from machine to human, which is a historic cultural phenomenon.

Thread Guy: So you think holding Goat is more meaningful than holding other AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, holding Goat is more likely to make people believe. As a historic OG moment, it may have long -lasting cultural value like Doge, and most of the other tokens may not.

Will AI+Crypto be the next DEFI Summer?

Thread Guy: I have another idea. First of all, I fully agree with the value of Goat. But about the views of those AI tokens, I think the current market value of the market is between 12 billion and 15 billion US dollars. You mentioned the situation of the previous podcasts that the Yuan universe and Defi Summer. The market value of NFT has reached up to 600 to 70 billion US dollars, and the high point of the Defi Summer is 4,000 to 600 billion U.S. dollars. Looking at the situation of AI tokens now, I think their market value is very similar to that of NFT. Almost all NFT finally returned to zero, but the concept of digital assets is real and part of future life. Therefore, although most of the AI ​​tokens may be worthless, their narrative and future potential are worth looking forward to.

Raoul Pal: I admit that NFT does have a magical place, that is, their value is priced with ETH. When ETH rises 10 times and your NFT rises 5 times, your income is actually 50 times. This is why people make so much money in the NFT boom. This situation is almost impossible to repeat, because the MEME tokens are denominated in US dollars.

Thread Guy: But how do you explain the phenomenon of Defi Summer? Because you can argue that if the MEME tokens are priced with SOL, and SOL rises to $ 1,000 or higher, will the performance of these tokens be similar?

Raoul Pal: The MEME tokens are actually denominated in US dollars, and they are not priced in SOL units. Unlike, NFT is directly priced at ETH.

Thread Guy: So how do you explain DEFI Summer?

Raoul Pal: Defi Summer is a real breakthrough in the history of the financial market. It realizes decentralized borrowing and value exchange without manual intervention. This is a huge progress.

Thread Guy: So do you think the combination of AI and encryption can reach a breakthrough like Defi Summer? Because you have said that AI needs to encrypt as a payment tool for the Internet. Will the rise of AI bring a bigger breakthrough than DEFI?

Raoul Pal: There is no breakthrough at present. This is not a breakthrough to add a tokens to a certain AI model or chat program. Maybe there will be breakthroughs in the future, but not yet.

Thread Guy: So do you think these AI is just a chat robot, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, the problem is that we pretend that they have achieved breakthroughs.

Thread Guy: But this is like Yuga Labs. With the concept of "an interoperable Yuan universe", Yuga Labs is raised with a valuation of $ 4 billion. The Yuan universe did not exist at the time, but they still received financing.

Raoul Pal: But at that time, the investment of the Yuan universe was single. The current AI narrative is too scattered, and our progress in the AI ​​field is far ahead of the technologies that these tokens can reflect.

Thread Guy: I think these tokens represent zero to zero -to time between AI and encryption. Although these tokens are still early, the future changes will become faster and faster. In the end, new AI startups will launch innovative projects for the first time in the encryption field. Do you think this kind of future is difficult to achieve?

Raoul Pal: I don't deny that there may be such a intersection point in the future, but the question is whether we can really make money from it. This is a question that requires long -term observation.

Thread Guy: But we have made money from it, isn't it? You can't deny the performance of Goat and some other tokens in the market.

Raoul Pal: Those who participated in the early days did make money, but the next question is whether these tokens can continue to rise to a new height and establish long -term value in the market? This is not easy.

Thread Guy: So your point is that the safest choice is still the basic chain of investment, such as Solana, not trying to choose individual AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, the value of the basic chain is easier to reflect. Compared with the application layer, the basic chain is more likely to benefit from the network effect and transaction volume.

Thread Guy: So from your perspective, what is the future direction? What do you think of the future scene where AI and blockchain are fully intertwined?

Raoul Pal: There is no doubt that the interchange of AI and blockchain is part of the future. I know they will eventually be combined. But my concerns are that there are too many hype in the market now. Everyone touts any AI -related tokens into the next breakthrough, and in fact we may not reach the real technical breakthrough point.

Thread Guy: Therefore, you think the future value will be more reflected in the basic chain, not these AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, I think the basic chain will get more value accumulation. These tokens and projects have currently cycles very fast, and technology updates are also very fast. It is almost impossible to find a project that can maintain its competitive advantage for a long time. For ordinary investors, this makes choosing individual tokens a very difficult task.

Thread Guy: I agree with your point of view that many tokens may not have long -term value. But like NFT, although 99% of NFT is zero, the 1% still achieved great success. Does this indicate that there may be a few winners in AI tokens?

Raoul Pal: Yes, there will definitely be a few winners. But it is not easy to find these winners. This requires you very deeply in this field, and at the same time, it has super high judgment. Moreover, this also requires luck.

Is it a technical breakthrough or GPT WRAPPER?

Thread Guy: We also have a guest, Frank, AI belief.

Frank Degods: I am glad to meet everyone. This topic is great. I have been listening, apparently I have some thoughts.

Raoul Pal: No one we know the answer, right? Because of this, discussions and thinking will become interesting.

Frank Degods: Yeah, let me ask a question first. How many AI tokens have you seen so far? What is our progress now? What are you studying the most?

Raoul Pal: I first watched Tao and Render, and there were some related projects. Then I also paid attention to Virtuals, AI16Z, ZEREBRO, but that's it.

Frank DEGODS: Okay, this is easy to say. I think that when you mention that there is no real technology and developer, this may be a misunderstanding. Because these AI agents are not competing with Openai, they are built on it. They use technical platforms such as Anthropic, WAMA. Strictly speaking, as long as AI starts to use the blockchain, this is already an innovation. Perhaps this is not the coolest innovation in the world, but the blockchain applications of these large language models and people interact with them are already a forefront of technology. I think this should not be simply regarded as air coins, because they are indeed doing things, this is my opinion.

Raoul Pal: Like the Trading View model or a macro command that can be charged, these are practical tools. But their value has not reached the scale of billions and tens of billions. And the development of technology itself is too fast. A year ago, I couldn't enter the chart into CHATGPT for me to interpret it. Now it can analyze technical analysis. The rapid iteration of technology makes you think that the accumulated value has not been realized.

Frank Degods: But you listen to me, Raoul, your description is more about the process of collaboration. When a giant like OpenAI launched a new model, these small teams and projects followed up quickly. You mention that technology iterations are fast, but these AI projects are optimizing their products with this speed. For example, when Anthropic or OpenAi launch a new model, only the change of code needs to be changed, the ability of these Agent will quickly improve. It is not accurate to say that these projects do not work with large models, because they are indeed collaborative.

Raoul Pal: Frank, I understand your point of view. But the problem I encountered is that OpenAI often directly eliminates the products of start -ups through integration functions, thereby destroying the survival opportunities of these small companies.

Frank Degods: This is actually an outdated narrative, and the current industry pattern is rapidly expanding. For example, when Anthropic was first launched, people thought it would be completely suppressed by Openai. But it turns out that it has not only survived, but even becoming a strong competitor. Today, some of the world's best AI developers tend to use Anthropic technology.

Raoul Pal: Yes, Anthropic and ChatGPT are significantly different in some ways. For example, Anthropic's conversation is more free. Some of its functions make me feel that it is more "conscious" to some extent, and it is slightly stronger in code. This does provide greater flexibility for developers.

Frank DEGODS: There are two key points here, listen to me. In the world of Web2, when ChatGPT was just popular, there was a saying that all GPT packaging could not accumulate value. Therefore, although many startups have high valuations, they are regarded as projects that will eventually be zero. But the facts of the past two years are exactly the opposite. In fact, many of the largest AI companies are not core models, but more encapsulated applications like Character.AI. Character.ai is now valued at about $ 3 billion, and its core function is just a highly customized package.

Raoul Pal: But this package does not really break through.

Frank Degods: Listen to my explanation. Taking Eliza as an example, this is one of the most popular open source projects on GitHub. Its code is very simple. Users only need to replace the API key to choose different models, such as Llama or OpenAI. In other words, when Anthropic, Openai, or Meta launch new models, these AI Agent can be seamlessly connected immediately. This fast compatibility and tuning ability shows that these projects are indeed closely collaborated.

Raoul Pal: I understand. However, the problem is that the real value accumulation is still more concentrated on the basic chain, not on these applications. The capital cycle and product iteration speed is too fast, and it is difficult to form a long -lasting competitive advantage.

Frank Degods: But I think we are going to discuss that regardless of whether the technology is completely mature, as investors, do we wait for all preparations and act, or start discovering potential projects now?

Raoul Pal: This is a very philosophical question. I personally tend to observe the trend, such as observing whether a certain field is conducting cutting -edge research. I talked to a team two days ago. They used a Chinese model. This model is probably equivalent to the early version of ChatGPT 4.0. The question is that although the combination of AI and blockchain is correct, where will value accumulation happen? I think more value will still return to the bottom chain itself, because the speed of capital and innovation cycle is too fast, it is difficult to make the application layer achieve long -term breakthrough products.

Frank Degods: Your point of view makes sense, but we cannot ignore the current community's attention. For example, there is a developer named YOHEI, one of the founders of Baby Agi, the AI ​​Agent concept. He is developing a framework to help people create more similar agents. And like this, open source developers are finding the point of market demand and gradually forming their own communities and attractiveness.

Raoul Pal: These examples do show some market tracts, but they are still far worse than Telegram Bot. Most existing open source projects are more like a trading view model, which provides some practical functions, but does not have much breakthrough innovation.

Frank Degods: I don't agree with this comparison. Telegram Bot is just a macro command to perform simple strategies, and the current AI Agent can solve more complicated problems through real -time tuning and the ability of large language models. More importantly, we have seen that in the field of AI-blockchain, there are some real experimental research that is occurring, such as a project called "Y & E". It searches for research by refining AI to search for research The knowledge in the paper is blank, and try to solve the problems in the health field with these data. Another example is "Pythia", which tries to implant AI into the mouse's brain for neural training. All the details of the research are public on the chain.

Raoul Pal: I admit that these projects are very interesting, and they are indeed an extension of decentralized science (DESCI). This model combined with open source research and community power is indeed very novel. But from the perspective of investment, I still feel that their long -term value is unclear, and it may be difficult for most ordinary investors to really benefit.

Frank Degods: This is the differences in our perspective. In my opinion, we cannot just look at these new projects from the perspective of investment. For example, the rise of community -driven and open source development incentives has made many research projects that have not been attracted to ordinary people have now attracted great attention. The success of this model lies not only in the technology itself, but also the participation and feedback of the community.

Raoul Pal: Your point of view made me a little more clear. The combination of AI and blockchain is indeed one of the trends we need to pay attention to in the future. I also agree that what you said is that the current capital formation is unprecedented, and the cycle of testing, failure, and re -construction is also very short. This experimental ecology is very important for innovation, but from the perspective of long -term investment, I prefer to wait until the market is more mature.

Frank Degods: I can understand, but my view is that we have not seen the winner in this field. When the real winner appears, it may attract a large amount of capital inflows. You are right, this may happen in 2027-2029, but I think the experimental stage we are experiencing is also worthy of attention.

Raoul Pal: Fully agree with your point of view. The process of experiments and verification is undoubtedly the key to promoting the development of the entire industry. But what I value more is the long -term value accumulation of underlying technology and network effects, not short -term market hype.

Frank Degods: You are right, the accumulation of long -term value is really important. But for developers and investors who are in this field and understand each token dynamics every day, their short -term strategies and experiments may help them find future winners.

Raoul Pal: This is why I like to observe and learn you on the front line. Your short -term observation and my long -term trend analysis can form complementarity, which is helpful for us to understand the direction of the entire industry.

Frank Degods: The focus you mentioned really makes sense. I think we can understand the problem through different perspectives. For example, the combination of AI and blockchain is not only technological innovation, but also how to promote the rapid development of open source development through the token incentive mechanism. AI is now the most attractive field in the world. This experimental model is creating a new power mechanism.

Raoul Pal: This is indeed one of the most powerful applications of blockchain technology. I fully agree with your point of view. My problem is that for ordinary investors, it is almost impossible to accurately choose a tokens that can succeed. Unless they are studying the market every day, they are boiled until three in the morning, and the price fluctuations and project dynamics are paid attention to. Otherwise, this may be very difficult for those who do not engage in full -time research.

Frank Degods: You are right. This is why these people are in -depth market every day to pay attention to the dynamics of each token. I think this is also a problem at different times. You are concerned about long -term trends, and we are more focused on short -term market performance and potential opportunities.

Raoul Pal: This short -term and long -term perspective differences are indeed what many investors need to understand. For the vast majority of ordinary people, I suggest that they mainly take long -term holding and try to avoid short -term high -risk operations.

Thread Guy: RAOUL, I feel that you may start studying AI tokens after leaving this meeting. I dare to bet that you have recorded a lot of projects in my heart.

Raoul Pal: Actually, after I left this discussion, I realized that there are no clear reasons in the market to support any AI tokens will be successful. But the overall trend in this field is undoubtedly correct. I may consider the Goat project because it represents a particularly interesting "left curve" logic (that is, non -linear, unexpected investment opportunities).

Thread Guy: I like the consensus we reached -the combination of AI and blockchain is a huge trend. Although we are currently unable to determine which token should be bought, we all agree that this direction is correct.

Raoul Pal: Yes, I think everyone may be a bit "medium -curve" (that is, too much analyzes the current status quo). If we put aside analysis and controversy and return to fundamental, the trend is indeed obvious. This is why this conversation is very valuable, because it can help us seize the really important things.

Thread Guy: This discussion is really interesting, we must have a second part. I have two questions in the end I want to ask you.

Raoul Pal: No problem, you can come for a second discussion at any time. We can talk about NFT next time. I will take you into that field, you may even consider buying a DickButt (well -known NFT project)!

Thread Guy: I may not buy a DickButt in my life. I tell you, if I wake up tomorrow and find that the market value of the Goat project exceeds seven digits, I will buy a DickButt.

Raoul Pal: At that time, you will definitely buy it because of FOMO! DickButt is an important part of encrypted culture, just like Cryptopunks.

How does AI change the encryption world?

Thread Guy: Okay, go back to the topic. I want to ask a wider question about AI's future vision. Without considering encryption, how do you think AI will change the world after 3 to 5 years?

Raoul Pal: Okay, I have written a lot of articles about this issue before. When you watch, please understand how important this is. The next five years will be a critical period. I also operated a service called "Exponentialist", which focuses on the combination of technology and encryption. All the content is currently free. You can go to see it. It is currently providing free trials. Let's talk about the driving force of global economic growth: population growth, productivity growth and debt growth. After 2008, debt growth has basically stagnated, and we are just repaying debts. As for the growth of the population, we are facing the aging of the population, and the global population is almost shrinking. In terms of productivity, the production efficiency of the aging population is low.

However, we are about to usher in a new era. AI and robots will introduce "unlimited labor" and "infinite knowledge". Almost all human value creation can be attributed to the products of knowledge or labor. Lawyers, accountants, doctors, and surgeons, the high income of these occupations comes from its combination of knowledge and labor. However, all these will be gradually replaced. Although this will not be fully realized within five years, the trend is already very obvious.

On the other hand, if economic growth depends on population growth, then with the introduction of AI Agent, we can soon achieve "unlimited population growth." This will create unprecedented economic activities and subvert the existing economic models. And these values ​​do not necessarily belong to us. We will see that the company is interrupted, copied, and quickly launched. For example, I can copy your SaaS business model and transform it into a product for the Indian market. AI Agent will tell me how to operate, and know better than us.

I am currently developing an AI video project. Next week, I will release a voice version on the Real Vision platform, which is based on all my data training. At around March, you can even communicate directly with this system with the "video version of me". In the long run, we have spread from "one person to multiple people" (such as our current conversation) to an example of "one person to one person". Imagine that Netflix will provide customized movies based on each person's personality, because everything can be rendered immediately. Then, plus the rise of AR and VR technology, and the popularity of robots, the world you understand will be completely changed. This is the meaning of all exponential growth. This is a manifestation of Metkov's law, but we are now entering the "Fang of Metkafa's Law", which is the law of Ride. This is beyond our current understanding ability, but the development of AI has made us feel this change. Although this will break the status quo of society, it also provides us with the biggest opportunities in human history.

The next five years is crucial. We must seize this opportunity not to waste it. I will always emphasize that to avoid short -term speculation and keep myself synchronized with this trend. Cryptocurrencies will become an important part of this trend, and it is also the biggest macro investment opportunity in history. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the best assets in history, and this trend will continue.

The key is not to lose your tokens. Think of those who buy Bitcoin for $ 3, their only task is not to lose their tokens. If you lose capital because of excessive use of leverage or crazy speculation at dozens of AI tokens, you will completely miss this opportunity. If you are not careful, you may find that you do not have enough funds to adapt to this new world in 2030. This is my request for myself, and my suggestion for everyone. This is the golden age of our generation. After this opportunity, I don't know what will be next. But I know that humans still love to be human experience and cherish nature. Therefore, we will find a balance between nature, human nature and communities, and I am not worried about it. Regarding the issue of money and value, AI may become better investors than us, can create a better business model, and even achieve comprehensive economic abundance. At this time, the significance of money will have a profound change.

Thread Guy: So, how much money do I need to make by 2030 can I feel at ease?

Raoul Pal: This is not a matter of specific amounts, but the choice of your lifestyle. You need to ensure that there is a stable residence, living in where you like, and maintain the lifestyle you want. You also need a certain amount of liquid assets to pay daily expenses and let yourself have time to find a role in this new world. I guess you are still young, you have enough time to adapt. I think it is very valuable as a content creator and part of the community. We still need the real communication between people, and this value cannot be replaced.

The point is to find a place you like to live, such as the sunny areas, mountainous areas, seaside and so on. It is not necessarily in the United States. There are many places to have a lower cost of living, such as Salvador, Nicaragua, Thailand, and even Singapore. If you can protect yourself, you can welcome future changes with a relaxed mentality, not scared. Because if you do not protect yourself and do not accumulate enough capital for your lifestyle, you will face huge risks.

Investment Novice Guide from Raoul Pal

Thread Guy: The last question, for young people who are completely confused and just contact AI and cryptocurrencies, do you have any suggestions?

Raoul Pal: I have said similar words to many friends of my friends. They just graduated from college and are around 20 years old, and they always ask me what to do. My usual suggestions are: first buy some bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, and invest 80% of funds into these core assets. The remaining 20%, try to try the market and learn rules.

Investment is not an easy task. I have done it for 35 years, and it has never been simple. Therefore, don't take risks from the beginning. The overall trend in this field is upward. As long as you hold core assets and persist, you will definitely make money. But I understand that this may not be enough to pay mortgages, or it may make people feel not fast enough. But I hope you can gradually learn the rules of investment through some of the funds, instead of taking risks with all capital.

When you really have the rules of the game, you may have a chance to get a hit, get a hundred times or even higher income. But I don't recommend you to bet all at one time, because most people who try to do this will eventually fail. The success story you see on social media only represents very few people, and thousands of people behind them have lost all capital.

This is the uniqueness of this market: it is a casino that has been "controlled" for you, and the overall trend is upward. But it is surprising that many people still mess it up.

Thread Guy: My last question is, how to earn $ 10 million in 2025?

Raoul Pal: You can start from $ 100 million and then trade AI token (laughs).

Thread Guy: Haha, you are really a legend, thank you very much! This discussion is interesting.

Raoul Pal: I also like this conversation very much, looking forward to the next meeting!