Stacks co-founder Muneeb Ali: Developers will return to the Bitcoin ecosystem and the price is expected to reach $150,000 by the end of the year

Author: Nelson Wang

Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher

On January 2, Muneeb Ali, co-founder and CEO of Stacks, a leading Bitcoin second-layer network (L2) project, changed his X (original Twitter) profile from “Founder @Stacks” to “Wartime Founder @ Stacks". This change shows that Ali realizes that 2025 is a critical year for Stacks to shift from technological upgrades in 2024 to market expansion and user growth. Last year, Stacks completed the long-awaited Nakamoto Upgrade, which significantly increased the project’s speed and enabled 100% finality of all transactions on Bitcoin.

Ali believes that this strategic adjustment of Stacks is particularly important as the crypto market ushered in a bull market due to the election of Donald Trump as president and developed in a more favorable policy environment.

“Changing the profile is a signal to the community that ‘we realize these are different times than before and we need to move faster and be more aggressive,’” Ali told CoinDesk in an interview. "It's not that there won't be product upgrades in 2025, but it can be said that products will no longer be the core focus of the work."

Here, Ali shares what decisions he would have made differently if the Satoshi upgrade could be reimagined; his candid take on the Lightning Network’s slow progress in powering Bitcoin payments; and his expectations for where Bitcoin’s price will go in 2025 ; and his ultimate goal of getting one billion people on the chain through Stacks. In addition, Ali will speak at the Consensus Hong Kong Conference in February.

This interview has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.

Q: What is the current situation of Satoshi Nakamoto upgrade?

Ali: I still think Bitcoin desperately needs a really good L2. One reason is that the user experience (UX) of Bitcoin does not change at the first layer (L1) level; you cannot achieve fast and low-cost transactions on L1. This is why many people are interested in Lightning Network. It's been around for a while and there's some adoption, but it's not particularly high. Frankly, this is reality.

Therefore, I think there is still a need for a Bitcoin transaction network that can provide extremely fast speeds and a great user experience. Arguably, even Solana's achievements in this regard are far superior to Lightning Network or any other solution. Therefore, one of our goals is to build a Solana-like Bitcoin L2 that enables ultra-fast transfers of any funds and provides a great user experience. I think the Satoshi upgrade is helping us move toward that goal.

**Question: If you could do the Satoshi upgrade again, what would be the

differences?**

Ali: The release of the Satoshi upgrade is divided into multiple stages. The first is the completion of the migration of core consensus capital in April. Subsequently, we introduced the fast block feature, but more complex transactions were unable to benefit from it. Then, we released another version so that complex transactions can also enjoy the benefits of the upgrade. However, looking back on the entire process, it was more of a "step-by-step release." At each stage, people have high expectations, but one after another there are reactions of "not yet fully realized." By the time the feature finally went fully live, I think it did dampen the initial excitement somewhat.

Q: Will developer interest shift back to Bitcoin in 2025?

Ali: I think so. Bitcoin is like a unique existence that will never disappear no matter how the market changes. Even if you look at the dynamics of the public markets, you will see that more and more public companies are building Bitcoin reserves. In terms of adoption, Bitcoin is way ahead of any other project.

Perhaps a year ago, Bitcoin L2 sparked more enthusiasm, but now that enthusiasm seems to have cooled down a bit. However, I think Bitcoin is so fundamental that people will eventually come back to it.

Q: What impact will Trump have on the development of Bitcoin?

Ali: Very big. Look at his choice of advisers, like David Sachs, who will serve as head of cryptography and artificial intelligence (czar). He is a key limited partner (LP) at Multicoin Capital and is very knowledgeable about the latest developments in cryptocurrencies and Solana, so I think this will have a huge impact. The same goes for other advisers Trump has picked. Over the past four years, the U.S. government and regulators have been virtually working against us. Now, I think they will actively support and encourage the development of this field. This 180-degree change is very important and will help the industry a lot.

Furthermore, if the Bitcoin reserve plan does come to fruition, whether nationwide or limited to certain states (such as Texas or Wyoming), it would send a very strong signal globally.

Q: What is your prediction for Bitcoin price by the end of 2025?

Ali: I still believe in the four-year cycle theory. I think the current cycle will end in the fourth quarter of 2025. While there are some reasons to think the cycle may not be as dramatic as it has been in the past, I personally still hold that belief. I would be surprised if Bitcoin price does not reach $150,000 by the end of the year. I do think there's a chance we'll see $200,000, which would be the upper limit of my expectations.

Q: When will Bitcoin’s fast payments be realized?

Ali: We are working hard to push this forward. I think Lightning deserves a lot of credit - there are a lot of loyal users using it. However, the technology itself is complex and not easy to integrate. Furthermore, the Bitcoin community has largely focused its attention on one project. I think a better approach would be to allow multiple experiments to run simultaneously and see which ones attract more attention. What makes me happy is that Bitcoin's L2 now has many different projects being launched, and we can finally see multiple experiments unfolding in parallel. If Lightning Network is too difficult to integrate, let other projects try to solve the problem.

If you go to Bitcoin conferences, or listen to some of the top people speaking, like [MicroStrategy founder] Michael Saylor, you'll find that they often think Lightning Network is the only solution. They rarely mentioned other L2 projects. I think this is partly because some L2s have their own tokens and the Bitcoin community is not enthusiastic about these tokens. However, I think that attitude is now at least starting to loosen a bit.

Q: What are you excited to discuss at Consensus Hong Kong?

Ali: How to bring Bitcoin to a billion people? This is one thing that excites me and drives our technology decisions. If that's your goal, then almost immediately you'll be looking at L2, because on Bitcoin's first layer (L1), a billion people can't even own an Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) at the same time. I think many Bitcoin enthusiasts may not realize that L1 alone on the Bitcoin chain cannot support one billion people owning UTXO at the same time.

This is something that’s not discussed a lot in our industry. Many have embraced Coinbase, Binance, or ETFs as a way to introduce users to Bitcoin. But that’s not what Bitcoin is really about. The core of Bitcoin is decentralization, self-custody, and giving people direct control over their assets. We must never forget this mission.