The giant whale has increased its investment by US$3.8 billion. Is XRP heading towards US$10?

In the past 24 hours, XRP price has exceeded $3 for the first time since 2018, continuing to lead the cryptocurrency market in 2025. The increase in 15 days reached 41%, leading the top 10 cryptocurrencies.

According to Coinmarkcap data, the current XRP price is only 17% away from its historical high of $3.84. Based on the current market value of $170 billion, the market value of the token has exceeded that of the asset management giant BlackRock.

The rally was driven by expectations of crypto-friendly policies and changes to digital asset regulation in the United States, which has seen the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple engage in a multi-year legal battle over XRP token sales.

Diego Cardenas, OTC trader at digital asset platform Abra, said in a report: “The surge is driven by a growing number of partnerships, the launch of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, and speculation about a potential spot XRP ETF. "

Ripple President Monica Long said in an interview last week that she expected spot ETFs to be approved “soon” as approval from the new government would speed up the process. In addition, Ripple’s leadership has been in direct contact with the incoming U.S. government, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty recently meeting with Trump, indicating that the two parties may cooperate on shaping a regulatory environment conducive to digital assets.

Furthermore, the current surge in XRP prices coincides with the continued accumulation of “whales” holding between 1 million and 10 million coins.

Analytics firm Santiment noted that since November 12, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million coins have accumulated 1.4 billion XRP holdings, worth approximately $3.8 billion, even at prices after the early December 2024 highs Accumulation also continues during the consolidation period.

XRP surpasses Bitcoin in Google searches

XRP price and its holders have shown strong resilience over the past few weeks. Google Trends data shows that on January 15th, global Google searches for XRP surpassed Bitcoin. XRP has led Bitcoin in search volume twice in the past year, most recently in November 2024.

Analyst: XRP rally driven by spot investors

Futures open interest for major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum reached record highs in 2024, highlighting the importance of derivatives markets during bull markets. However, XRP’s recent gains have been primarily driven by spot investors.

Order flow analyst Dom said that XRP’s retest of $3 was entirely driven by spot buying. He pointed out that during the period when XRP’s weekly gains reached 15%, XRP’s funding rate and spot purchase premium did not increase significantly. Dom said: "If this happened to Bitcoin, I would just say we are about to have a big rise."

At the same time, some industry insiders also pointed out that if the two assets continue to rise at the same price ratio, XRP's performance will likely surpass Ethereum.

Sovrun co-founder Jeth said there is “no reason” to hold Ethereum now. While Ethereum has better “fundamentals,” XRP has received positive regulatory support as the first pro-crypto U.S. government is set to take office on January 20.

From a technical perspective, XRP is showing strong growth indicators, breaking out of its bull flag pattern after rising 105% in late 2024. However, its relative strength index (RSI) of 79.5 indicates that the coin is overbought, which could lead to a short-term pullback or consolidation.

Technical analyst Dark Defender highlighted the “upside breakout” on XRP’s monthly chart at Platform X, comparing it to the 2017 bull run, when XRP gained 1,022%.

The analyst believes that based on the Fibonacci retracement level of the 2017 increase, the XRP price may rise to $10.23 or even $18.23 in the short term, whether it is "to the moon" or "to Mars", these two target values ​​are within It's possible by 2025.