Trading moment: US stocks plummet triggered a wave of gold risk aversion, and the crypto market is under short-term pressure

1. Market Observation

Keywords: tariffs, ETH, BTC

The US stock market fell into panic again after experiencing a brief rebound. On Thursday, the three major indexes fell by at least 5%, the S&P 500 index almost triggered the circuit breaker mechanism, and the Dow Jones Index closed down more than 1,000 points. Under this market uncertainty, investors have turned to safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices to break through $3,210 per ounce, setting an all-time high. The domestic gold jewelry market has also risen, with the price of most gold stores exceeding 990 yuan/gram, close to the 1,000 yuan/gram mark. Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital, analyzed that the Trump administration's tariff policies will not only fail to solve the problem, but will instead intensify the trade deficit. With the uncertain economic outlook, gold, as an alternative to "solid currency", has attracted the attention of more and more investors.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is also facing severe tests. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below a number of key technical indicators, including the 111-day moving average ($93K) and the 200-day moving average ($87K), and even touched the 365-day moving average ($76K). Currently, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates in the range of $131K to $72K, but is close to the lower limit of $72K. Glassnode analysts are concerned that falling below this level may cause a collapse in investor confidence and lead to further price declines. Although the market is under short-term pressure, there are still optimistic factors. QCP Capital noted that investors are still buying a call option of $100,000 in December, indicating that the market still has hope for Bitcoin to return $100,000 by the end of the year. In addition, the market trading activity has dropped significantly. CryptoQuant data shows that the spot trading volume of Bitcoin fell from US$44 billion at the beginning of February to US$10 billion at the end of the first quarter, a decrease of 77%; the altcoin trading volume shrank from US$122 billion to US$23 billion, a drop of more than 80%. These data indicate that investors have reduced participation due to market uncertainty.

In terms of regulation, the US SEC approved Ethereum spot ETF option trading, involving institutional products such as BlackRock, Bitwise and Grayscale. The SEC also issued a guide to the issuance and registration disclosure of securities in the crypto asset market, providing guidance to further clarify the applicability of the Federal Securities Act in the crypto asset market, covering equity and debt securities related to network, application and crypto assets, including disclosure requirements for crypto assets as part of investment contracts. In addition, Trump has signed a joint Congress resolution to formally revoke the IRS crypto tax rules (DeFi brokers rules) passed by the Biden administration at the end, which originally required "custodial brokers" to collect and report user data to tax authorities. According to Solid Intel, 100 listed companies around the world hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, covering multiple industries such as cryptocurrency, mining, technology, media, energy, finance and medical care.

From a macro perspective, market concerns about the U.S. recession are increasing. Goldman Sachs' latest research report shows that the US stock market may last longer, and the current event-driven bear market triggered by tariffs can easily evolve into a cyclical bear market. Bridgewater Fund founder Dalio warned that Trump's tariff policy has caused "permanent trauma", and abnormal U.S. debt movements exposed signs of capital escape. He asserted that "someone must have lost their positions" and emphasized that "another terrifying market trend will eventually appear." Fed officials also expressed concerns, with Boston Fed Chairman Collins pointing out that tariff-induced inflation could delay further rate cuts, and her staff estimates that imposing effective tariffs above 10% on imported goods will increase the Fed's preferred basic inflation indicator by cumulatively 0.7 to 1.2 percentage points. In addition, former US Treasury Secretary Summers also warned that the United States may be moving towards an economic recession, which may cause about 2 million Americans to lose their jobs and each family will face at least $5,000 in income losses. Under this uncertainty, investors are moving away from U.S. assets and turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, Swiss francs and yen.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on April 9)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: USD 80,532.05 (-13.76%), daily spot trading volume USD 42.347 billion

• Ethereum: USD 1,539.43 (-53.73% during the year), daily spot trading volume was USD 20.674 billion

• Corruption Index: 25 (Pandemic)

• Average GAS: BTC 2.01 sat/vB, ETH 0.48 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 62.4%, ETH 7.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AERGO, BTC, GAS, UXLINK

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0708

• Sector rises and falls: AI sector rises 3.68%, DePIN sector rises 2.89%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 101,800 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$300 million, with BTC liquidation of US$89.8 million and ETH liquidation of US$88.93 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line ($82180.69), lower line ($80553.35)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($1706.34), lower line ($1672.55)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of April 10)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$150 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$45.22 million

4. Looking forward today

• FTX will be allocated for the second time on April 11

• US SEC will hold a roundtable meeting on April 12 on “Blocks and Dilemmas: Tailored Supervision for Crypto Transactions”

• Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock 8.43 million tokens on April 11, worth approximately $24.2 million

• Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on April 12, worth approximately $58.4 million

• Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens on April 13, worth approximately US$161 million;

US March PPI annual rate (April 11 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 3.2% / Expected: 3.3%

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: GPRO rose 108.27%, XCN rose 67.04%, AERGO rose 64.06%, SWFTC rose 39.66%, and ZRC rose 34.15%.

5. Hot News

• One address sold CryptoPunk NFT for approximately $6 million, losing tens of millions

• Trump signs bill to revoke crypto tax rules during Biden administration

• Data: 100 listed companies hold Bitcoin assets

• A giant whale that had previously sold ETH to pay off the loan sold 9,000 ETH again sold 9,000 ETHs.

• Binance Alpha adds Wayfinder (PROMPT)

• The US has not adjusted the annual CPI in March by 2.4%, and the monthly CPI rate after the seasonal adjustment is -0.1%.

• Binance Alpha adds Mind Network (FHE)

• Deribit: Over $2.59 billion BTC and ETH options will expire on April 11, with the biggest pain point of BTC at $82,000

• White House: Tariff levels will drop to 10% during negotiations

• Binance Wallet will host Mind Network (FHE) token generation event

• Binance's second round of "voting and removal" projects were announced: 17 projects including FTT and ZEC are on the list

• Fetch.ai team address once again transferred 15 million FETs, suspected to be sold/market through DWF Labs

• Tether Treasury issues 1 billion USDT in Tron Chain, and has issued 8 billion USDT so far this year

• glassnode: If BTC falls below $72,000, it may face greater downward risks