Trump's tariff Spring Festival market disappears

Jessy, Gold Finance

The Spring Festival market has not arrived as scheduled.

On February 1, local time in the United States, US President Trump signed an administrative order to impose 25%tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico on February 4th, and impose 10%tariffs on goods from China.

Because the US stock market closed on the weekend, the impact of this policy was not displayed in the stock market, and the vent of risk aversion all showed that the encryption market is now. The rare market on the evening of February 1 ushered in a decline on February 2nd. As of press time, BTC fell below $ 100,000, ETH fell below $ 3,100, and the Congzha currency market also ushered in a new round. Falling, most of the cottage coins have even fallen to the recent low, such as Trump, which has little limelight in late January, has fallen to 10. Gold reached a record high and exceeded $ 2,800/ounce. This also fully shows that the risk aversion in the financial market is high.

Not only the Chinese New Year's market disappeared, but the market also had a large negative view on whether there were still in February. After Trump officially took office, the market has not been able to get out of a clear direction. At present, the first is the administrative order issued by Trump's cryptocurrency related to the market. A favorable landing, Trump's release of the MEME tokens before the stage has consumed the industry's confidence. The policy similar to its tariff increase has undoubtedly increased macro risks, which makes investors worry about rising inflation and avoiding danger.

At present, the macroeconomic situation before the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts is ambiguous. In this case, the market will continue to fluctuate.

This time it was not just the tradition of rising currency prices during the Spring Festival in China, and even before the next February and even the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts, it was difficult to see a rising market.

Trump transactions are invalid, and the macro is the maximum affecting the crypto market factors?

Originally, investors held more optimistic emotions for the rise in February in February, mainly because of optimistic expectations for the implementation of a series of encrypted policies after Trump came to power.

Indeed, after Trump came to power, most of the previous commitments made by the crypto industry, such as the signing of an administrative order to set up a cryptocurrency working group and the prohibition of central bank digital currencies. However, the "Bitcoin as a national reserve" on the crypto industry has not been able to land. Because of this, it does not have much booster effect on the market.

Before Trump came to power, he released his same name Meme and cut a wave of leeks. Its tokens almost squeezed the liquidity of the market in the short term, and the worse impact was that a kind of consuming industry confidence in the industry was confident in the industry confidence. Behavior.

It is precisely because of the above reasons that Trump has not played a great boosting role in market confidence.

However, the news continued. First of all, DeepSeek took off the US technology stocks, and it also made the currency circle. And the United States' increase in tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China is a high probability that will make the US economic growth rate decline. In addition, the addition of tariffs may damage the U.S. government's progress in suppressing inflation, trigger or exacerbate inflation, and inflation rise. High, and further transmitted to monetary policy that led to tightening monetary policy.

From the perspective of global trade, Trump's tariffs have made global trade frictions upgraded, which may make the global economic growth rate decrease, and the International Monetary Fund has also stated that if there is a very serious decoupling and large -scale large -scale, Tariffs may eventually lead to global GDP decline. The slowdown of global economic development will definitely affect the overall liquidity in the market, and the overall investment amount and transaction activity in the market will decline. As a high -risk investment encryption market, it will also decline.

The macro uncertainty has become the Smooth Sword of Damocles hanging above the crypto market. Because of this, some news that inspires the market can only boost the market in the short term, and want to continue to flow into the funds in the short term. At the macro level, it also depends on the Fed's interest rate cuts and Bitcoin as the real landing of national reserves.

When the market fell, it seemed that all news became bad news. For example, on February 2nd, it was reported that Salvador recently revised Bitcoin as the status of the legal currency through the reform of the Bitcoin Act.

As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin also fell short -term. And this also shows that the current market has reached the mouth of the wind, and the market emotions are extremely panic, but it also indicates that a short -term rebound will appear.

The cottage season may disappear, the maximum macro risk may have landed, and the market will be dominated by the next shock

In such a complicated macro situation, people in the industry may have to accept a fact that the cottage season may disappear.

The current coin issuance has become too easy, a large number of new tokens in the market have emerged, there are many projects on the chain, the supply of cottage coins has increased significantly, and the total amount of market funds has been limited, resulting in relatively insufficient demand. Promote the rise in prices.

Facing the overall situation of such a complex cottage coin, for investors, they cannot be in love. They invest in hot projects on hot tracks and sell them when they earn money.

And this situation is undoubtedly enlarged the aspect of the encrypted industry as a casino, and it is becoming more and more difficult to make money on the altars. The plunge of the Congzhai coins driven by Bitcoin's decline recently is undoubtedly constantly demonstrating the fact that this cruel but must be accepted by everyone.

In the future, maybe only by passing several tokens that have passed the ETF spot will it be paid by the market for a long time and can get long -term inflow of funds. In the case of limited market funds, how to choose coins is as important as how to choose stocks in the stock market. The general market in the past market will not be reproduced. The advantages of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will also be more obvious, and they have attracted most of the funds and market attention.

And this time Trump's tough tariff policy is actually a tool for Trump to negotiate pressure on trading partners to use tariffs to force relevant countries to make concessions on some issues. This is a game, and in the end If the two sides reach a compromise, they will also boost market emotions.

What has a longer -term impact on the encryption market is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. At present, the mainstream institutions are expected to make interest rate cuts in June 2025. And this also indicates that before June, the market will not have a lot of reactions due to the expectations of the interest rate cut policy or not as expected.

In summary, the most important thing about macro risks that are not good for the currency circle in the next few months is the tariff issue. At present, the tariff issue has basically landed, and the next is a game of tariffs between countries.

Before June, there should not be too much macro -in news, but there will be no long -term market, and the market will still be dominated by shocks.

For investors, if you cannot profit in the fluctuation market, then avoid the risks brought by fluctuations as soon as possible.