U.S. debt exceeds $ 36 trillion. Can Bitcoin become international settlement currencies in the future?

introduction

At the beginning of the New Year, the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded US $ 3.64 trillion. How can the US debt crisis be resolved? Can the US dollar international hegemony continue? How will Bitcoin react, and how will the future international settlement units be replaced?

We will start from the US debt economy model, and then discuss the current debt risk facing the internationalization of the US dollar and whether the US debt repayment plan is feasible. Looking at ancient and modern, and seeing US debt is Bitcoin, where is the way.

The establishment of the US debt economy model

After the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system, the US dollar hegemony grew up in the debt economic model.

The Bretton Forest system disintegrates, and the dollar becomes a credit currency

After World War II, the Bretton Forest System was established, the US dollar linked to gold, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank controlled relevant rules, and the international monetary system centered on the US dollar was formed. However, the famous "Trifen problem" accurately predicts the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system: the demand for international settlement is constantly growing, the US dollar continues to flow out of the United States and precipitate overseas, and the long -term trade deficit in the United States. This requires a long -term trade surplus in the United States. In addition, the Vietnam War exacerbated Shuangchi. In 1971, President Nixon announced that the US dollar was decoupled from gold. The US dollar was transformed from the current currency to a credit currency. Its value no longer uses precious metals as guarantees, but instead guarantees the US national credit.

The establishment of the debt economy model, the US dollar hegemony continues

On this basis, the US debt economy model has established: Global trade takes the US dollar as the settlement currency, and the United States must maintain huge trade deficit to obtain a large number of US dollars in other countries; Financial products return the US dollar to the United States.

As the world currency, the US dollar belongs to international public products and should maintain stability. However, after abandoning the Gold's standard system, the US Monetary Management Authority has the right to issue monetary, and the United States can change the value of the US dollar according to its own interests. The US dollar hegemony has continued strongly through the debt economic model.

US dollar internationalization is facing risks

The US dollar is facing the risk of US Treasury debt economic models and commercial real estate debt.

US dollar internationalization and manufacturing backflow contradiction

The US debt economy model is an important support for the internationalization of the US dollar, but it is not sustainable. Trifen still exists. On the one hand, the internationalization of the US dollar needs to maintain a long -term trade deficit, export the US dollar and precipitate overseas. Once overseas investors are worried about the ability of US Treasury bonds, they may turn to other alternatives, and ask US Treasury bonds to pay higher interest levels to balance future payment risks, causing the United States to fall into the "US dollar credit weakening-US dollar pricing price price Rising-Enhancement of inflation-US debt interest rates maintain high-US interest burden increases-the risk of US debt payment-USD credit weakened ".

On the other hand, the United States needs to play economic combinations to promote the return of manufacturing. This will reduce the trade deficit, which will lead to the shortage of US dollar supply and a significant appreciation for a long time. This will hinder the dollar as international settlement currency. Although the United States elected President Trump proposed the return of manufacturing and also proposed high tariffs. Although high tariffs in the short term are conducive to the return of manufacturing, it will cause inflation in the long run. In fact, the two also have conflicts.

It is unrealistic that the idea of ​​not only the US dollar hegemony and the manufacturing industry is unrealistic. At present, the pressure on the US dollar is not yet clear. It is expected that the trade deficit in the short term will not undergo fundamental changes, and the US dollar will focus on depreciation pressure.

Commercial real estate debt crisis

In addition, in addition to the risk of US Treasury bonds, commercial real estate also has debt risks.

According to Moody's recent report, due to the continuous expansion of home office size, it is expected that by 2026, the vacancy rate of office buildings in the United States is expected to increase from 19.8%in the first quarter of this year to 24%, compared with before the epidemic. The office space required by the white -collar industry is about 14%. McKinsey is expected to decrease by 13%of the demand for office space in major cities in the world by 2030. In the next few years, the market value of global office buildings may shrink significantly by 800 billion to 1.3 trillion US dollars.

According to CICC's research, as of the end of 2023, commercial real estate loans in the US banking system accounted for 26%of total loans, while large banks' commercial real estate loans accounted for only 13%, and small and medium banks were as high as 44%. In the late 1980s and 2008, the United States had experienced the wave of bankruptcy reorganizations caused by real estate risks. After the epidemic, the risk of commercial real estate in the United States still existed and did not improve. The US $ 1.5 trillion in commercial real estate liabilities will expire next year. If small and medium -sized banks explode, it may trigger a financial crisis.

Analysis of US debt repayment plan

How to interrupt this vicious cycle mainly depends on how to repay such a scale U.S. Treasury bonds. Borrowing new debts to repay the old debt, similar to the "Ponzi scam", the US dollar will lose its credit sooner or later, thereby losing the status of world currency, which is obviously not feasible. We will analyze whether the next compensation plan is feasible.

Sale of gold repayment of US debt?

Federal Reserve asset -side analysis

The figure below shows the Details of the Fed's assets disclosed as of December 4.

On December 4th, the Federal Reserve asset side (unit: millions of dollars)

Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances -H.4.1 -December 05, 2024

The main assets held by the Federal Reserve are bonds, including government bonds and quasi -state bonds, a total of about 6.57 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 94.45%of the total assets.

Gold holding is $ 11 billion, but this part is calculated after the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system. We refer to the exchange rate when the system completely collapses. The spot price is about $ 2700/ounce. The value of these gold is about $ 704.358 billion. Therefore, the adjusted gold accounts for about 10%of the total asset end.

US debt liquidity crisis

As a result, some people propose to sell gold to repay US debt. It seems that gold is large, but it is not feasible. Gold is a general currency with international spontaneous consensus. It plays a key role in stabilizing currency and responding to the economic crisis. The huge gold reserves make the United States have a strong right to speak in the international financial market, and its status is very important. If the Fed sells gold, it means that the Fed has completely lost its trust in US debt, and it seems to "have no way to go". The liquidity crisis of the US debt is the Great Wall of Self -destruction.

Sell ​​BTC repaid US debt?

The recognition of Bitcoin checks

Trump once said, "Give them a small cryptocurrency check. Give them a bit of Bitcoin, and then wipe our $ 35 trillion." The role of currency is still highly volatile compared to traditional and legal currencies. Whether checks can be redeemed by the other party's recognition must be depends on it. U.S. debt holders may not be recognized. Secondly, economies holding US debt do not necessarily implement Bitcoin friendly policies. For example, China, considering the regulatory issues within the economy, may not accept Bitcoin checks.

Bitcoin reserves are not enough to repay

Secondly, Bitcoin held in the United States is not enough to resolve the debt crisis. Judging from the current data, according to Arkham Intelligence on July 29, the US government holds $ 12 billion in Bitcoin, which is only a ant leg of 36 trillion US dollars. Some people speculate whether the United States is likely to control the price of Bitcoin. This is unrealistic. Cutting money is a question of the dealer's thinking, and the United States faces the horrible 36 trillion U.S. debt volume. Even if it controls the price of Bitcoin, it is impossible to fry the solution with $ 12 billion.

In the future, it is possible to establish Bitcoin reserves in the United States, but it cannot solve debt problems. Senator Sima Lulis has proposed to establish a 1 million bitcoin reserve, but this plan is still controversial.

First, the establishment of Bitcoin reserves will weaken the world's confidence in the US dollar. The world will regard this as a signal that the US debt risk collapse immediately. The interest rate may soar significantly and the financial crisis erupted.

Second, whether the United States is currently negotiating whether to implement Bitcoin reserves through laws or administrative orders. If Trump generally overtakes administrative orders to force the purchase of Bitcoin, it is interrupted because it does not meet the public's opinions. The American public did not have a deep understanding of the crisis of the US dollar. The Trump administration used administrative means to purchase a large number of Bitcoin, which may face the public's question: "Is this part of the expenditure be better if it is used in other aspects?" "Is it necessary to spend so much money to buy Bitcoin?" The challenges faced by legislative methods are obviously more difficult.

Third, even if the United States has successfully established Bitcoin reserves, it can only delay the collapse of debt slightly. The view that supports Bitcoin reserves repaid US debt repayment of US debt quotes the conclusion of the asset management company VANECK: the establishment of a 1 million bitcoin reserve, and US national debt in the next 24 years can decrease by 35%. It assumes that Bitcoin will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to US $ 42.3 million in 2049, while US Treasury bonds will climb from 37 trillion US dollars in early 2025 to the same period at the beginning of 2025 to the same period. 11.93 trillion US dollars. However, we can convert the remaining 65%of the debt into specific amounts, that is, as of 2049, US Treasury bonds still exist that about 7.73 trillion US dollars of government bonds cannot be solved with Bitcoin. How will this huge gap be filled?

The US dollar and BTC anchor?

There is also a bold idea that if Trump has been released for favorable news, pushes the price of Bitcoin, and then uses other methods to make Bitcoin settlement in all countries and the United States, which can make the US dollar decompress with national credit and linked to Bitcoin. Can this solve the problem of huge US debt?

" New Era Bretton Forest System"

The hook with Bitcoin is in disguise to return to the Bretton Forest system, similar to the US dollar linked to gold. Supporters believe that the similarity of Bitcoin and gold lies in: mining costs increase, limited supply, decentralization (de -sovereignty) with increased supply.

The mining cost of gold is mining with the lighter surface of the surface, and the remaining mining costs have risen, which is similar to the difficulty of Bitcoin mining. Both have the upper limit of supply and can be stored as a good value. Both have the characteristics of decentralization. Modern credit currency is a mandatory implementation of sovereign countries, and gold naturally becomes currency. No country can control it. Because the supply and demand of gold are distributed all over the world and various industries and are relatively stable. The correlation is extremely low. Not to mention Bitcoin, due to the characteristics of decentralized operations, it can avoid the supervision of the sovereign government.

Threats the US dollar internationalization

The unreasonable thing is that the US dollar and BTC anchor will threaten the internationalization of the US dollar.

First, assuming the US dollar linked to Bitcoin, it means that any group or anyone has the right to use Bitcoin to issue its own currency. Just as before the Fed was established, in the era of free banking from 1837 to 1866, the right to issue banknotes was free. About 8,000 different currencies are issued, which is often located in a distant and remote, and there are more wild cats than people, because its extremely low feasibility has been nicknamed "Wild Cat Bank".

Today Bitcoin has the characteristics of decentralization. If the dollar is linked to Bitcoin, it will greatly weaken the international status of the US dollar. The interests of the United States need to defend the internationalization of the US dollar and the implementation of the US dollar hegemony. It will not be inverted, and it will not promote the anchor of the US dollar and BTC.

Second, Bitcoin volatility is high. If the dollar is linked to Bitcoin, the real -time transmission of international liquidity can amplify the volatility of the US dollar and affect the international community's confidence in the US dollar.

Third, the Bitcoin held by the United States is limited. If the US dollar is needed to be linked to Bitcoin, the United States does not hold enough Bitcoin reserves, which will lead to limited monetary policy.

Manipulate the US dollar through BTC?

There is also a voice saying that Bitcoin is the "digital gold" in the future, so can the United States manipulate Bitcoin like manipulating gold to control the US dollar?

Looking back on how the United States manipulates the US dollar through gold

After the tooth buying system in 1976, the interests of large investment banks, governments, and central banks were consistent. The legal currency was based on confidence. If the price of gold rose too fast and shaken the currency confidence, it would be difficult for the central bank to control liquidity and inflation goals.

Therefore, the United States has promoted capital to hold the US dollar and push up the dollar. Conversely, it can increase the price of gold and promote the depreciation of the US dollar.

Suppose the United States manipulates Bitcoin prices, can it control the US dollar? The answer is not.

It is not realistic to control the US dollar through BTC

First of all, Bitcoin operates on the decentralized network without any single entity, including the US government, which can manipulate prices like controlling gold.

Secondly, Bitcoin capture global liquidity and affected by too complicated and diverse factors internationally, even if the US government wants to manipulate Bitcoin prices, the effect will be greatly reduced.

In the end, even if the United States can manipulate the price of Bitcoin, after lowering the price of Bitcoin, the liquidity out of Bitcoin does not necessarily hold the US dollar. Because Bitcoin holders have higher risk preferences compared to traditional US dollar holders, they may turn to other high -risk assets. It should be noted that the US dollar and gold are assets of high -current and low risk categories. The risk aversion attributes overlap and recognize the same degree. Therefore, there are obvious alternative effects, and there are still certain differences between Bitcoin and the US dollar.

Kill the debtor Japan and Jewish consortium?

U.S. -Japan cooperation continues

It is also said that the second is to kill the debtor Japan. Japan is the biggest holder of US Treasury bonds. This is impossible in the short term.

Shi Po cabinet needs to restore trust because of the black gold problem, and at the same time, it is subject to the opposition party. Therefore, after the stage, he has shifted to pragmatic, seeking to maintain vested interests through strategic binding of the United States.

The United States has been dragged down by the Ukrainian crisis and the Middle East chaos. Therefore, Japan needs to play the role of "Deputy Police Chief" in the Alliance system to invest in strategic investment in the Asia -Pacific direction.

As a result, the overall cooperation situation in the economic security field will continue, and the United States will not rush to get rid of Japan.

The Jewish consortium should not challenge

In addition to national holders, the Jewish consortium also plays an important role on Wall Street. About 80 % of debt are held by domestic investors and financial institutions, such as pension funds, common funds and insurance companies. Most of the shareholders of these financial institutions are Jewish, the so -called Jewish consortium. Some opinions believe that the Fed may use the public's increasingly dissatisfaction with the "rich people" to blame the Jewish consortia of the economic crisis. We think the cost of this move is too high and it is not easy to achieve.

The fire to the Jewish consortium will affect economic stability, which may lead to an increase in unemployment rates and a lag of innovation, leading to decline in investor confidence and international competitiveness. This is an act of killing the enemy for one thousand and self -damaging 800, especially the time when the debt crisis broke out. Adopting this move will only stimulate the economic acceleration collapse.

Secondly, the Jewish consortium has experienced many years of operation and is gradually strengthening its influence on politics. For example, the proportion of Jews in the Biden team is relatively high, and the core members of the cabinet during their ruling period are particularly stable. Unlike other government periods, it may show that the Jewish consortium intends to move from behind the scenes to the front of the scenes. In the future, it is foreseeable that the Jewish consortium will also actively operate political power to fight against the US government. It is not easy to use the Jewish consortium to operate.

The outbreak of debt crisis on the impact of international settlement units

Therefore, we will see that the US debt cannot be repaid and the product tariffs are increasing and the input inflation is caused. If the effect of the US commercial real estate debt crisis is superimposed, the inflation will soar rapidly. As soon as the financial crisis is touched, Bitcoin will fall in a short period of time with the financial market, but it has risen for a long time.

Bitcoin fell short -term

In EXTER 's Pyramid proposed by the Vice President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, John Exter, Bitcoin is currently closer to the leverage products at the top of the pyramid instead of the risk aversion at the bottom. Short -term investment demand will be reduced.

Bitcoin becomes Noah 's Ark

In the long run, Bitcoin will become the Noah's Ark in the financial crisis, and it is expected to become an important pillar of the international settlement system in the future.

First, Bitcoin is strict and scarce assets. Under the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, Bitcoin can maintain scarcity and have extensive applicability globally. People are more willing to use it as a long -term value storage method. In other words, the Bitcoin will be closer to the bottom of the EXTER's Pyramid, and the risk aversion attribute is highlighted. Despite the emotional interference of the short -term market, the precious nature of Bitcoin value storage will still be excavated by the market.

Second, the behavior of investors and consumers after the crisis will also change. The collapse of the US debt was an epic impact. After the financial crisis swept away, a wolf borrowed. The trust of financial institutions and sovereignty countries/governments and monetary authorities will disintegrate and reconstruct. Bitcoin, as a relatively independent assets that are not controlled by the state/government, will become the best choice for future investment.

Therefore, in view of the sustainable debt economic model, the collapse of the US debt is only a matter of time. The internationalization of the US dollar will be re -created, and the world will usher in another wave of Bitcoin adoption.

Will Bitcoin become the international currency of tomorrow?

Once the US dollar system collapses, what will become the baton of the US dollar and the next -generation international settlement currency?

Looking back at the history of currency, the three major elements of currency are value scale, trading medium and value storage. The most important of these is the trading media function. At this point, Bitcoin, unlimited locations, and can avoid the trading of sovereign state alliances, more effectively capture global liquidity and complete transactions than traditional finance. In terms of value scale, the application scenario of Bitcoin is continuously expanding, which can effectively measure the value of many products and services. In terms of value storage function, as Bitcoin mining gradually develops, the margin of supply has decreased, and the value storage function will be more enhanced.

Is there a possibility of alternating other legal currencies to become international settlement currencies? At present, there are no other legal currencies comparable to the US dollar. Moreover, after the outbreak of the US debt crisis and the explosion of the US dollar system, I believe everyone has more questions about the traditional financial market. If there is really a free currency, can it lead to the true freedom and true decentralization of all human beings, can it avoid the impact of traditional sovereignty on the economy?

Some people will say that some cryptocurrency technology is more complete than Bitcoin and can be traded smoothly. Why can't other cryptocurrencies become international settlement units? This is because value is based on consensus. The most consensus in cryptocurrencies is Bitcoin. It has the highest popularity, the most widely recognized, and the strongest influence.

Therefore, Bitcoin has the potential to become the next generation of international settlement units, depending on whether the times give it opportunities.