What happened to the crypto market in the recent past?

Author: 0xTodd, Partner of Nothing Research

In the past week, many friends called me to inquire about the market. I think it is necessary to disclose my ideas and disclose my views on the current market - [What exactly has changed] [Future process]

All the family who have been following me for a long time know that I am a long-term investor. So, starting from 2019, I have an annual strategy updated every year, and this article is probably for communication and discussion with my family.

1. DeepSeek pierces the bubble

Once this DeepSeek is released, don’t worry if it really uses 500,000 US dollars to train such an AI, but this narrative is like this: [Algorithm Improvement] at least defeated [Computing Power Improvement] in a short term.

Don’t worry about whether this thing is real—since the market unanimously recognizes 500w, you should think it is real. When our crypto industry reached the end of 24 years, I would not admit that besides meme, but objectively, there is only one last narrative left: AI Agent, which can be said to be the hope of the whole village. However, no one expected that the AI ​​Agent was ruthlessly beaten by DeepSeek on the True AI Track next door. Like DS, there are real IQ200 in the team, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and many medalists in the Olympic Games.

In contrast, our industry is popular with second-tier programmers who are idle at home, AI engineers who are dismissed or secretly engaged in side jobs, so sometimes we are forced to IQ50. so…

On January 27, I took all my AI token positions with tears in my eyes. I didn’t sell them at the highest point, and I took a lot of retracements. It’s fake to say I don’t feel sorry for it. But the colder fact is that this thing turns our entire AI Agent track into a clown, and this is probably true. The reason why "narrative" is "narration" before "the event" is because this "thing" has not yet been implemented, and can only rely on "narration". Once the story can't be told, the decline of the track is really irreversible.

2. The President and the President's Mob

I don’t know how you feel during the Chinese New Year. Anyway, my physical feeling is that many relatives and friends are asking how to register for BN or OKX, but there is no such thing because they want to buy Trump coins. The last time they were so crazy was on National Day, they wanted to open an account and make it into the A-share market.

Source of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Trend: Tencent Securities

If I remember correctly, these Warriors who entered the Big A on No. 10.8 are still hanging on the top of that mountain. After taking profit AI, to be honest, the more I thought about it, the more I became more and more scared, and then I saw this post.

A brief look: The president seems to be in trouble, but there are two possible reasons:

1. He doesn't make money in the way you can see;

2. He is a fool;

Anyway, I know that the answer is absolutely impossible to be 2. yes! Meme is now played by the president, and he can also make money through channels that we don’t know. To be fair, is our meme worth sitting at the same table with Trump? Can a Thai hippo, an American squirrel, and a bottle of longevity medicine that can prolong the life of flies really sit at the same table as Trump, who lives in the Oval Office?

It’s the Chinese New Year, with adults and children. Adults drink famous wine, while children only deserve Sprite. So, I basically took out the memes in my hand that day. My meme position used to have huge floating profits, but because I took the initiative to reduce IQ to 50, I did not complete the great retreat, but I have been joining the great revolution. The feeling of dreaming.

3. One top signal: High school brother earns tens of millions

I believe that all the families who play meme, even those who don’t play meme, have heard of this recent legendary story. A high school brother joined Jelly for a month and beat Jelly at once, and won tens of millions at a high cost.

Of course, it became more and more outrageous when it came to the future, and there were more and more rumors. I was not sure that this matter was 100% true, but I knew that the taste was right.

Looking back at the 1-3 days before the 69K historical top in 2021, I am feeling:

· Intern, the yield is easily defeated by the fund boss;

· ENS's grassroots community contributors took tens of millions of airdrops;

That moment, just like this moment.

I liked this post. A TIME editor (or of course a hacker) can immediately harvest countless SOLs by relying on a fake Twitter. I ask you, what does this mean?

It’s not that making money is not enough - experts can always make money, even if they can still make money at the bottom of the bear market. But if the subject becomes an ordinary person: the intern brother makes a lot of money, the ENS contributes brother makes a lot of money, the high school brother makes a lot of money, and the editor brother makes a lot of money.

Meaning: [ At this moment, everyone 's hands are particularly loose ] Friends who often play cards know that they will only become loose when the floating profit is extremely high.

This means that the greed index has reached its true culmination. This is a super top signal.

So, on the 30th, I cleared almost all the altcoins, only retained BTC, and a small number of mainstream coins ETH/SOL/DOGE/exchange coins. Although there are still losses, the fruits of victory were left behind in three melons and two dates. I admire my high school brother’s wonderful operations, and I also respect the iron market rules of this alternative investment product.

4. Questions about BN and BN’s responses

Alas, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.

As a former CEX practitioner, I have seen this set of consultant-listing-shipment dramas too many times. From the initial anger to the gradual numbness behind, it is no longer surprising.

However, in the past, this thing was placed under the table, which was "small greed and small corruption were the lubricant for development";

It belongs to "the water is clear and there will be no fish". There is a slight turbidity under the water surface, which is considered part of the rules of the game.

After all, we do not live in a utopia, nor in a vacuum home. However, the most taboo thing about this thing is to take it from under the table to the counter. I have no intention of criticizing BN or No. 1 sister because this matter exists in almost every CEX.

If this is placed in the traditional world, to put it in an exaggeration, it is a huge scandal, which can cause hundreds of people to be laid off and dozens of people to be punished at once. Maybe the number one sister might as well not respond, learn from celebrities to treat cold treatment, and give retail investors some thoughts. However, most of our industry are skeptics, and a huge scandal is a heavy hammer that is hard on the heart of every holder.

It defeated many people's beliefs. Our industry really needs "god" because it is maintained by consensus.

But when everyone discovered that the public servants under "God" actually wanted to make some quick money, their faith was suddenly destroyed and quickly projected to God's relationship - all the altcoins on BN, at this moment They are all facing huge suspicion and gaze from retail investors. Since AI and HOOK are like this, are other coins really better?

5. Future scripts

If we follow the view of Kezhou Juejian, this decline is very similar to 5.19. We suggest that you review the trend after 5.19 in person.

Trends after 519 in 21, Source: Bitfinex

If you follow the script of 5.19, there will be a turbulent plot that lasts for two months until the most loyal person is washed out of the car and then the new $Bitcoin ATH is ushered in.

Of course, some people also suspect that this is the plot of 12.4, the beginning of the AKA bear market.

Just from the inner tendencies, I hope this is 5.19. After all, Bitcoin’s US national strategic reserves are becoming clear, so don’t underestimate the huge influence of this matter, really. Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I am willing to add some additional positions.

6. My position distribution

My current position:

40% BTC; 20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT); 40% stablecoin financial management;

Bitcoin is my eternal belief. I think I will never sell BTC and will no longer do bands. Reasons for retaining ETH: To be honest, belief in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don’t know if there are many people in my family who are speculating on US stocks. Many people regret not following the order [Nancy Capitol Hill Female Stock Goddess of Pelosi].

Image source: World Magazine

Pelosi's highlight moment was the President of the House, which was just the third pick in American politics.

Trump is now the real president. The crypto president is holding ETH in a large position (although it has been deposited with untraceable Coinbase custody), and this amount cannot be underestimated.

Secondly, ETH has fallen to its current position, and I think it has reached the extreme of FUD, and there may be the thought that things will turn against each other. I can't buy it without anyone paying attention to it, at least don't sell it without anyone paying attention to it.

Reasons for retaining SOL: There is a small probability that ETFs may be possible; but the cooling of AI narrative and the short-term sluggishness of MEME are two small hazes.

Reasons for retaining DOGE: Grayscale has launched Dogecoin Trust, and Doge also has a low-probability ETF;

In addition, Musk is working hard in the DOGE department; in the same car as the world's richest man and "Director of the US Development and Reform Commission", I think I can sleep too.

Reasons for retaining exchange tokens: ugly words are ahead, exchanges have no possibility of taking a bigger stage. Coinbase doesn't list BNB, and Binance doesn't list MNT. But the exchange is the only institution in our industry that can make money + concessions; if the bear market really comes, the exchange tokens are relatively more resistant to declines, and occasionally an IEO can still recover its health, and this is the only way to survive in the bear market.

7. Cruel View: The good days for the old men are over

In addition to the above, I am most likely not to hold any counterfeits in a large position in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.

The speed of new users and new funds entering the market is simply not as fast as the printing speed of these coin-issuing monsters.

Source: Decrypt

A few days ago, there was a statistics that the most awesome account on pump fun issued 17,000 coins in 3 months. Not 170, not 1700, but 17000! His contribution alone may exceed the sum of tokens issued in the entire bull market in 2017. Why did the investment strategies of Lao Dengs fail?

Too many choices! Too many angles!

Even with N CAs at the same angle, how can I get the turn of Lao Deng’s copycat?

The old Dengs’ favorite strategy: buy a waist copycat at 100M or 200M. Hold it for 2-3 months and bet it outperforms Bitcoin. However, now I am afraid that even ETH can’t win.

And Marshal P's favorite strategy: buy a 10K valuation project in the inner market. Run away after 30 minutes. A real man never looks back at the explosion. Obviously, in today's token inflation, Marshal P is far better than Lao Deng. I don't call on everyone to become a young player, I just hope that everyone will at least not be old.

8. Best position: 50% big cake + 50% stablecoin financial management

In addition, I sincerely recommend that you hold a certain U to spend the next time. You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell it in the super big top.

There is one on the top of the mountain every 4 years. You can find a day to sell it in more than a thousand days. The probability of 1/1,000 is naturally very few, and all of them are super lucky. At this stage, half of the position is the best choice. You invest 50% of your principal in financial management, and we don’t talk about what mines to invest in or what arbitrage to do.

We will do the simplest Ethena USDE, and now Pendle can give an interest rate of 18%. If Pendle is too lazy to do it, it will be 10% more than just throw it into AAVE or mainstream CEX financial management. The other 50% are mainly Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserves arrive.

It has both interest cash flow, dreams and beliefs, and you will definitely feel comfortable and guaranteed.

Of course, you can cut out another 5% to match a little altcoins that you truly believe in, whether it is ETH, SOL, DOGE or any of your faith coins. Cut out 5% of the funds and go to PVP for two games. If you win, you will be free and use it once. If you lose, you will be considered as a consumption. Isn’t it beautiful?

Finally, this distribution of Tai Chi diagram is formed.

PS: This is also what I want to slowly adjust my holding position Source: 0xTodd

9. Last

I am quite satisfied with my current position. After all, this is my 8th year of ups and downs in the crypto industry. I have always had some experience after so long. The only thing I feel a little regretful is that I have been playing in Osaka during the Chinese New Year. I am lazy and have not sorted out these thoughts as soon as possible.

The same strategy may help many people by saying it a few days ago, but it will become a review after the fact. However, it is not too late to make up for the loss of the sheep.

I hope every family can get their own big results in the crypto market. Of course, if you can't get big results, then keeping some small results and earning more spiritual and social wealth is also worth the trip. Finally, I wish my family members - the Year of the Snake, the golden snake dances wildly.

Todd

February 5, 2025