Yang Ge Gary: The second curve of Crypto's growth

Trump returned to DC on January 20, 2025. In just a few days before and after, it not only brought a number of administrative orders, but also brought a combination of $ TRUMP and family currency. An unprecedented global financial baptism not only triggered drama and impact, but also caused people to sleep all night all night in FOMO. Solana was pushed to a record high for a while, and Meme deservedly became the biggest focus.

Putting on profit and loss and emotions, the question is: Is it the starting point or the end point here?

Regardless of how Trump does, just as a previous article < Trump's victory drama drama change

mentioned that Trump just borrowed Crypto's trend to make a decision on historical nodes, but it can be said that $ trump The market value of the currency is based on the Crypto market for several cycles of the Crypto market. It has been built on the reverse construction of value expectations to form a product based on the accumulation habits of CONSENSUS in the world. Simply put, he achieved the pinnacle of Meme and narrative consensus.

Although MEME's enthusiasm is continuing as of the end of January, the value band and drilling time of a large number of single currency under high -risk PVP games are constantly shortening. It can be said that the quantitative experience of long -term investors and professional financial practitioners including me, including me It has been completely subverted in front of GMGN and TGBOT; but the essential trend is still very clear: the peak Alway is the summary archive of the consensus of the previous stage, and the first curve of Crypto's growth is about to end.

tl; DR

1. 7 giants on the zero -harmony game and the brand desk

2. Crypto ' s significance of the first curve and the end of the crossbow

3. The dilemma of negative and game and "last cycle" VC coin

4. The trend of RWA/RWA and the rise of Payfi

5. Crossing the gap: The second curve of Crypto 's growth

6. Crypto development pattern under compliance issues and the situation of various countries

7. The opportunity and challenge of 2025 under the turn of the drama change

1. 7 giants on the zero -harmony game and the brand desk

In the sixteenth cycles of sixteen years, Crypto obviously Slow Down in the myth of wealth. The main characteristic is that it cannot get rid of the 30 trillion spell. Since the ETF's competition has been pushed from individuals and institutions to the country through 2024, the net outflow has flattened a lot of net inflows, and the growth bonus of the first curve has gradually tended from positive and game to zero sum.

Last year, I met the 7 giants on the table of the TOKEN2049. There is an interesting scene on the TEXAS HOLD 'EM table. If you come to the table today, you do n’t know who is here, then today is here to pit you. This is a zero -harmony game.

After Crypto Market's gradually becoming zero-sum game, the seven giants gradually revealed on the table are: No. 1-Exchange, No. 2-financial institution (such as loan agreement and custodian), No. 3-City Shang, No. 4-Project, No. 5-Big Whale, No. 6 -VC, No. 7-retail investor. In the past, the bull and bear in the past cycle alternately, due to the rapid growth of the first curve and the large amount of funds, the overall cross -cyclical positive game, the embarrassing relationship of the 7 giants is not obvious. After entering 2021, the first curve slowed down significantly, the net growth rate of funds decreased significantly, and the table quickly entered zero and even negative and even games. At the current position on the 6th position, when the No. 6 stared at No. 7, the No. 1 position clearly felt the industry risk of the cold lips, so they began to increase the threshold and charge higher guarantee fees from No. 4 or 3. It should be served at the 5th and 6th positions, but because of the changes in the game rules, they had to play with it. Over time, the accumulation of grievances became difficult to maintain.

2. Crypto's significance of the first curve and the end of the crossbow

The significance of Crypto's first curve is similar to the missionary process of the Bible, the Buddhist scriptures, and the Gulan. Use narrative to depict faith and build the first wave of people to gradually change the subsequent production relationship.

However, today's world is different from history. First, the development is too fast, but the speed of practicalism verification is extremely fast. Therefore, only the consensus has not been implemented without implementation. The four cycles of sixteen years are already the limit. In this cycle, whether it is DEPIN, RWA, and BTCFI, or AI Agent, DESCI, and ZK; it is difficult for Real Yield and Real Application, which are not real. At the end of the end of the narrative consensus, $ Trump is essentially the end of the first curve of Crypto's growth.

3. The dilemma of negative and game and "last cycle" VC coin

At the end of the first curve of Crypto's growth, the competition of the residual battlefield was fierce. Although VC high -valuation financing, high FDV low liquidity, narrative is difficult to prove, high TVL long pledge difficulty Redeem, and high Listing/mm fee are still suffering, but the dilemma is very obvious.

At the end of the zero -harmony game, if the boundary of the first curve is not broken, it is impossible to not only have miracles that are unreasonable, but also vicious competition will form negative and game. Many people predict the "last cycle" is the result. Of course, the "last cycle" is not the end of Crypto, but the Real Yield and Real Application VC coin projects that only have a narrative consensus and no real landing.

It is worth mentioning that Meme is a special laminar product here. From the characteristics of narrative consensus, it still belongs to the first curve, but it breaks through people's understanding of finance in an unprecedented way, through fast launch and fast game. , Stubbornly broke VC's high valuation financing, high FDV low liquidity, high TVL long pledge, and these problems that require Listing and MM costs, set up a milestone for the first curve for the first curve . The method of the circle lays the foundation for orthodoxity for the second curve .

4. The trend of RWA/RWA and the rise of Payfi

In mid -January 2025, I met a project party from Nigeria at a LP meeting in Salt Lake City. David showed me his popular PayFi product and told me that in Nigeria, Crypto is paying, and the use of financial and assets has exceeded 50%(with the fiat currency). Kyc, so they directly used the Crypto tool.

I remember that at a conference in Beijing in 2014, I heard Baidu CEO said that China is a place where the basic industrial industrial revolution and the Internet occur at the same time, so new things such as Internet finance will happen quickly in China. So it is clear that today, more than ten years later, the more basic industrial development+the combination of Web3 is also staged in Africa in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America. Logistics trade, manufacturing and financial settlement companies, including China, the United States and Russia, have to be forced to adapt to the needs of partners to quickly get involved in this change.

Therefore, Crypto's mainstream market does not need to prove any adjustment conditions at all. Data sampling of Nigeria and India has told us that the rapid change brought about by 2025 will exceed imagination. Real Yield Asset, Real World Application, and Payfi rise The second curve of Crypto's growth is almost at hand.

5. Crossing the gap: The second curve of Crypto's growth

Obviously, the second curve of Crypto's growth is the landing application, Real Yield & Real Application.

<Crossing The Chasm (Crossing the Gluton)> The book of the development of a new thing is that there are five stages of the development of new things: 1.innovator, 2.early Adopter, 3.early Majority, 4.late Majority, 5.LAGGARDS.

Among them, in the 2 to 3 stage, a large gap will appear, and it is difficult for most products to cross or take a long time to cross. For Crypto, it is obvious that the 3 trillion curse is this gap itself. Early Adopter is a crowd who accepts narratives, and Early Majority must see people who have economic effects to produce economic effects.

Once Real Yield & Real Application, the second curve of Crypto's growth will quickly erupt until it becomes the basis of the mainstream economy, finance, assets and payment transactions and settlement of this world.

$ Trump plays a milestone at this point. It is both the end and the starting point. In addition, Trump himself has gradually fulfilled the election commitment for the limitation of loosening Crypto. The road provides a sufficient orthodox foundation.

6. The Crypto development pattern under compliance issues and the

situation of various countries (and regions)

Faced with such sudden changes, it is difficult for most countries and regions to give a clear premptive legislation for management. For many regions of Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East and South America mentioned earlier, Trump's victory and open policy provides the most comfortable decision -making conditions for Crypto's management, so the rapid outbreak It will also accelerate this year.

Singapore and Hong Kong, China, still tend to be managed in front -type bills in financial management, but after Trump came to power and launched Crypto's relevant administrative orders, there is also a corresponding tendency to relieve the trend. The Etf ETF and 1,9 liters issued by Hong Kong in Hong Kong in 2024 also have a certain risk pressure at the same time. This pressure has gradually eased at the current stage, and in the recent management regulations that MSO continued to launch, further further launched the regulations on the management regulations of MSOs continued to launch. Standardize the issuance and use of stable currency; in this process, Singapore will tend to a certain amount of posterity based on the existing bills, such as the DPT regulatory framework under PSA. It is agreed that this space will continue to retain the rear retention.

In summary, as of the end of January 2025, the global compliance supervision on Crypto's development pattern is generally friendly under the influence of Trump. The transformation has won a certain time.

7. The opportunity and challenge of 2025 under the turn of the drama

change

The turning point brought by the second curve is two -way, that is, both Crypto Market and Tradfi will have a qualitative change and far -reaching impact.

For Crypto Market, this is a habitual change similar to shifting. This process is likely to change the original inherent 4 -year reduction cycle, or at least on the original basis, change the effects of emotions and consensus on the fluctuations of bulls and bears alternately. Therefore, it will definitely change the basis for the evaluation of projects, assets and application value in the industry. It is a more essential challenge for the economy, finance, assets, and payment of the global environment. This challenge will change from the US dollar -based financial credit system with American credit as the corrected US credit. Economic reality.