2025 Life and Death Strategy in the Crypto Market: Regulatory Dividends, Technology Revolution and Trillion Fund Game

1. Regulatory dividend: Global policy shift and geopolitical game

1. The rise of the US "crypto ideal country"

- Policy relaxation: The Trump administration promotes Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, abolishes the SAB Article 121 that restricts banks from custodying crypto assets, and the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins proposed "guided supervision", clarifying the attributes of token securities and exploring compliance paths.

- Institutional entry: Bitcoin ETFs have managed assets exceeding 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), traditional financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are accelerating their layout, and CME launches Solana futures contracts to consolidate fixed price rights.

- Undercurrents of risk: US Treasury bonds exceed $36 trillion, and debt ratings are facing the risk of downgrading. If the US debt crisis triggers liquidity tightening, the crypto market may collapse simultaneously.

2. China and emerging markets’ defensive strategies

- Financial security threat: Chen Yulu, former vice president of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the global expansion of US dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin squeezes the internationalization space of the RMB, and DeFi regulatory arbitrage weakens domestic technological competitiveness.

- Competition for technical standards: The United States dominates the field of ZKP, Layer2, etc., and the EU integrates supervision through the MiCA framework. China faces pressure to relocate blockchain companies and needs to be vigilant about the loss of standard setting power.

3. Regulatory arbitrage and global synergy

- Game under the G20 framework: Countries are accelerating the formulation of digital asset rules, the United States is trying to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the financial hegemony system, while China fights against the dominance of the US dollar through the digital RMB.

2. Technological Revolution: Layer War, AI Fusion and DePIN Rise

1. Ethereum Revival Competes with Layer2

- Pectra upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility and staking mechanism, aiming to reduce Gas fees and improve security, the staking rate is expected to exceed 50%, and TVL may reach US$300 billion.

- Public chain pattern differentiation: Base chain (Coinback ecosystem) TVL exceeded US$40 billion, Solana achieved 100,000 TPS through the Firedancer client, and Sui and HyperLiquid seized the market segment with their modular architecture.

2. AI+Blockchain: From tools to autonomous participants

- On-chain AI Agents: NEAR co-founder predicts that AI Agents will manage crypto wallets, execute transaction strategies, and even become a social platform KOL. VanEck data shows that its number will exceed 1 million.

- Technology fusion bottleneck: AI model training costs are high, algorithm transparency disputes and regulatory reviews may limit large-scale applications.

3. DePIN: The Industrial Revolution of Decentralized Infrastructure

- Case breakthrough: Hivemapper draws 30% of the world's road through 150,000 contributors, with annual revenue exceeding US$500 million; Filecoin Foundation promotes the combination of AI and DePIN to solve the bottleneck of data storage and computing power.

3. Trillion-billion capital game: the struggle between institutions,

retail investors and stablecoins

1. The “de-retail” trend led by institutions

- Bitcoin ETF siphon effect: BlackRock IBIT management scale exceeded US$40 billion, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds entered the market, promoting the narrative of Bitcoin's "safe-haven assets", but 80% of its holdings are still controlled by retail investors.

- RWA tokenization exploded: Ondo Finance tokenized US bonds reached US$2.8 billion, with an annualized return of 4.44%; Maple Finance issued US$2.46 billion in loans, attracting Grayscale and Pantera to increase their positions.

2. Stablecoins: Payment Revolution and U.S. dollar hegemony tools

- Market size jumps: The market value of stablecoins reaches US$193 billion, which may exceed US$3 trillion in five years, and the cost of cross-border payments has been reduced by 60%, but the transparency of Tether reserves has become a potential black swan.

- Geoweaponization: The United States consolidates its global reserve status through US dollar stablecoins, seizes Russian crypto assets in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, highlighting the threat of digital financial hegemony.

- Regulatory crackdown warning: The US Congress discusses legislation to restrict “politicians’ issuance of coins”, if passed, it may trigger a sector avalanche.

4. Future path: Reshaping industry value between fanaticism and

rationality

1. Investor strategy: the balance between defense and offense

- Core configuration: Bitcoin (40%) + Ethereum (20%) + RWA leader (such as ONDO, 20%), long-term target Bitcoin 180,000 US dollars and Ethereum 8,000 US dollars.

- Risk hedging: Keep 30% stablecoin (USDC/DAI) and buy Bitcoin put options (exercise price $75,000).

2. The rules of industry survival

- Get rid of policy dependence: Trump's promised fulfillment rate is only 31%, and he needs to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to endogenous technological value, such as the DeFi protocol access to traditional financial infrastructure.

- Technology innovation priority: The implementation capabilities of Ethereum Layer2, AI agents and DePIN will determine long-term competitiveness and avoid homogeneous public chain bubbles.

3. Global landscape prediction

- The confrontation between China and the United States is escalating: US crypto hegemony squeezes China's digital financial space, while China counters through the independent digital RMB and blockchain technology.

- Competition for technical standards: underlying technologies such as ZKP and Layer2 have become strategic highlands, and the EU MiCA framework may give birth to new barriers.