April Crypto Market Observation: Under the haze of tariffs, Bitcoin completes the limit test of asset prices

**Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund for crypto markets, April Market

Observation Introduction:**

1/ Even though the past week is worth remembering throughout the history of US dollar assets, in terms of US dollar asset prices, this is likely to be just a disturbance to the key support test of bull and bear. However, in the entire process of rising and falling east and falling east, the entire process of tariffs will become a major turning point.

2/ We mentioned last month that the adjustments of MSTR and BTC are very benign, and the low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in the new cycle are undoubtedly revealed. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the market conditions of MSTR and BTC this year. There is a huge demand for the key support level of 75,000. With a large number of bottom divergence signals, it resonates with the bottoming out of the US dollar assets, and will form a market trend at least at weekly level.

3/ Current affairs are not the scope of content we have always discussed in public monthly reports. Although this is an important part of our trading framework, standing on this epic weekly weekend, I think excessive pessimism. The potential further US dollar disturbances in recent months are overly concerned. From a price point of view, the market is likely to have passed the limit test.

Reviews and comments on the overall market trend and market trend:

In terms of pure market, in terms of technical analysis, we only want to further emphasize that in the round of strong market differences just experienced, US dollar risk assets have released huge amounts at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. In the case of the seven sisters breaking in batches, the MSTR and BTC trends are obvious strong feedback. At the same time, we noticed the following deviations:

①The obvious divergence between Bitcoin price and contract positions (Coinglass data):

② Difference between Bitcoin’s own MACD and RSI:

Therefore, overall we believe that the extreme test position is the recent low.

After experiencing the climax of the previous market, MSTR can still rank among the top ten in the US stock market every day. We believe that this is also in line with the capital market establishment assumption we mentioned in our special report in October 2024. In the future, it is expected to continue to absorb liquidity from the US stock market and feed back Bitcoin with assets such as GME that have newly joined the BTC capital market. This model is similar to the Oriental Real Estate stock gameplay that began 20 years ago.

RMB assets have also undergone foreseeable extreme tests, and have also allowed more people to understand the facts of military, manufacturing, technology and population structure that we began to tell at the end of 24. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the secondary gap. With the subsequent monetary policy of the East and the West simultaneously easing, more investors are expected to discover many trends such as consumer brand upgrades and chip breakthroughs in the Oriental economy in recent years. Although the tariff incident can be regarded as an impact on asset prices, it will become a clear acceleration event in many years in the trend of rising east and falling west.

Finally, on the eve of the market sentiment gradually calming down and VIX gradually declined, we want to say that at this moment, the concerns about currency stability, sovereign stability, financial stability and asset security are exactly the preset scenarios when Bitcoin was born nearly 20 years ago. The vision that I once had will not be shifted due to the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention is still there will be truly revealed in 2025-2026.

At this moment, just like that moment.