Bitcoin’s extreme trend forecast for the year: falling to 50,000, or rising to 250,000?

Written by: Luke, Mars Finance

On March 31, 2025, Bitcoin was shaking on the edge of $83,000, down about 24% from its peak of $109,000 more than two months ago. The market is like a giant seesaw, with the whispers of the abyss at one end and the temptation of the starry sky at the other end.

Today, we focus on two heavyweight wise men in the crypto circle: Quinn Thompson, the helm of Lekker Capital, predicts that Bitcoin will lose chronic blood to $59,000-59,000; Maelstrom's godfather Arthur Hayes bets that it will rush to $250,000 by QE - a goal he reiterated in his latest article, although he also joked about the ultimate vision of a million dollar. The logic of the two is like a black and white piece on a chessboard, which is completely opposite but fascinating.

Quinn Thompson: Wall Street's "cold-blooded prophet"

Quinn Thompson is the founder of Lekker Capital, a "veteran" who has transformed from traditional finance to crypto. He once used billions of dollars to trade on Wall Street and was known for his precise macro insight. In 2024, when Bitcoin was still at its high level, his X post had already slandered the market and was regarded as the "last words of the prophet." Thompson's style is calm and sharp, like a doctor holding a scalpel, specializing in dissecting economic veins. His prophecies often have a hint of cold destiny, as if they have already seen through the rise and fall of the market.

Thompson's prediction is like a slow-paced tragedy: Bitcoin will not collapse, but will gradually fade like a chronic disease patient, and eventually fall to $59,000-59,000. "This is not a lightning fall, but a kind of chronic torture that makes people mad," he said in a CoinDesk interview. "Will investors ask "there is the end?" over and over again, but they can only suffer in the fog." His pessimism is based on the "four major headwinds" of Trump's administration policy, with clear logic and step by step:

" Cliff-style tightening" of government spending

The Government Efficiency Department (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, plans to cut $1 trillion in spending by the end of May, with a long-term goal of cutting 7 trillion. Thompson pointed out that government spending has been the pillar of the economy and employment in recent years. "This money flows into people's pockets, supporting vacation and supermarket consumption. Now that the pillar is about to be taken away, how can the economy not shake?" He sneered: "Don't care whether you like the Ministry of Education, those dollars are real money."

The "iron-fisted contraction" of the labor market

Trump's tough policy on illegal immigration will reduce the labor supply. In the past, the immigration wave lowered wages and boosted growth; now border lockdowns and repatriation increase, businesses will face pressure on wage increases, and some may even go bankrupt. "This is not a charity dinner, it's a survival game," Thompson said with a hint of mockery, "Who will work if there is less labor?"

The "suspense drama" of tariffs

Trump's tariff policy is like an unfinished suspense drama. It will be increased today and cancelled tomorrow. Thompson believes that this uncertainty is a poison in itself. "Companies are like being hung in the air, not daring to invest or recruit people, and their economic vitality will be suffocated to death." He described it as the perfect formula for "chronic suffocation".

The Fed 's "cold-eyed"

Although interest rate cuts by 100 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% at the end of 2024, Bitcoin failed to exceed 110,000, indicating limited easing. Thompson expects a sporadic rate cut of only 25-75 basis points in 2025, and is concentrated in the second half of the year. "The Fed is like a wealthy miser, staring at inflation and refuses to let go." He teased the White House: "Bessent's 'right-by-step' is to burst the asset bubble, and Bitcoin is the first to be the brunt of it."

Thompson likens this to a "controlled burn": the government tries to clean up the "dead branches" of the economy, but if it gets out of control, it may burn a piece of ruins. He warned that the "chronic blood loss" could continue until early 2026 until political pressure forces Trump to turn. As a risky asset, Bitcoin cannot escape the fate of cutting off its wounds.

Arthur Hayes: "Currency Alchemist" in the crypto world

Arthur Hayes is a legend in the crypto circle. He once founded BitMEX and made it the overlord of derivatives trading. After leaving BitMEX, he founded Maelstrom and transformed into a master of macro strategy, known for his bold predictions and sharp pen tips. His articles are like black comedy, which have both profound insight and mockery of power. Hayes is not only a trader, but also a "currency alchemist", who is good at refining gold from the ashes of policies. Although his million-dollar vision is shocking, the latest article focuses on the realistic goal of $250,000 this year, which shows his pragmatic side.

Hayes' prophecy is like a science fiction epic: Bitcoin will multiply the east wind of quantitative easing (QE), soaring from its low of $76,500 last month to $250,000. He wrote in his latest article: "I still believe that Bitcoin can make $250,000 by the end of the year, because Bessent's 'BBC' has put Powell in place, and the Fed will flood the market with the US dollar torrent." His optimism is based on three pillars, and the logic progresses layer by layer like alchemy:

Trump 's "debt mania"

Hayes believes that Trump's goal is to become "the greatest president in history" and will never follow the old path of Herbert Hoover's austerity, but will follow the FDR's way of printing money. He asked in "KISS": "Trump wants to be a sinner of the collapse of the economy, or a hero who prints money to save the world?" The answer is obvious: debt financing is his instinct. DOGE's cuts seem to be a tightening, but in fact they are "open conspiracy" that forces the Federal Reserve to open the gate. "He is a real estate showman, and borrowing cheap money is his best move," Hayes smiled sly, "Slashing is just foreplay, printing money is the climax."

The Fed 's "forced easing"

Hayes jokingly claimed that Powell was suppressed by Bessent's "BBC" (Big Bessent Cock) and had no power to fight back while sitting on "Cuck Chair". The FOMC meeting on March 19 was a turning point: Powell slowed QT, from a monthly reduction of $25 billion in Treasury bonds to 5 billion, releasing $240 billion in liquidity annually. More importantly, he hinted that he might buy Treasury bonds in the future, and even lifted the bank's SLR restrictions, releasing $420 billion or more. "The Fed is never independent," Hayes cited Arthur Burns' speech, mocking, "When debt is over, Powell can only bend his knees." He predicts that QE will restart in the third quarter, with interest rate cuts and SLR waivers, which may inject a total of $3.24 trillion in liquidity.

The Domino Effect of Global Liquidity

Hayes’s vision goes beyond the United States. He pointed out that the torrent of the US dollar will trigger a chain reaction: "Xi Jinping will let the central bank relax its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and increase the supply of the RMB; Germany built an army with the printed euro, and other European countries will also follow up if they are afraid that "1939 will repeat". This kind of global easing will give Bitcoin wings. "Bitcoin is the crystallization of technology + liquidity," he said. "Technology is mature, and liquidity is the only variable." He estimated that $250,000 is the target for the year, and $1 million is the ultimate vision during Trump's tenure.

Hayes also sees DOGE as an "economic tanker": cutting spending, laying off 400,000 employees, and combating fraud will trigger a recession and force Powell to take action. "This is not an accident, it's a script," he teased. "Powell either put out the fire in advance or wait for the boss to fall down before wiping his butt, but it all ends up printing money."

Core differences: austerity or a loose carnival?

The differences between the two masters are like a peak showdown between philosophy and strategy, with the core focusing on the game between policy paths and liquidity:

Policy Intent

Thompson regards Trump as a "cold-blooded surgeon" to cut the economic bubble through DOGE, immigration policies and tariffs, even at the cost of recession. In his eyes, the White House would rather let the economy lose blood than "treat the disease". Hayes regards him as a "real estate madman", using DOGE to create the illusion of recession and forcing the Federal Reserve to print money, which actually paves the way for "America First". Thompson focuses on the direct consequences of austerity, and Hayes has insight into the loose motivation behind it.

Fed reaction

Thompson believes that the Fed is a "warm spectator" and dares not make large easing under inflationary pressure, and QE is nowhere to go. He expects Powell to be cautious and difficult to reverse the decline. Hayes refuted that the Fed is a "tamed beast" and will restart QE under fiscal dominance and recession threats, and even use SLR exemptions to become a liquidity fountain. He believed Powell had no choice but to surrender.

Liquidity results

Thompson predicts "slow bear", economic slowdowns push down risk assets, and Bitcoin has fallen slowly to 50,000-59,000. Hayes is looking forward to "fast bull", and the liquidity torrent pushes Bitcoin to 250,000, even laying the groundwork for a million dollars. The two have a huge difference in their judgment of liquidity, one is bearish and the other is bullish.

Realistic progress, Hayes' $250,000 forecast is better?

In this 50,000-250,000-250,000 battle, data shows that Hayes' "250,000 frenzy" may be more forward-looking. Thompson's "slow bear" logic makes sense in the short term: DOGE's cuts have caused 11% decline in housing prices in Washington, employment data to deteriorate, and a cloud of recession approaching. The Fed's cautious attitude also matches his judgment. Although Powell slowed QT at his March meeting, he still vaguely talked about QE. If the tightening exceeds expectations, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to fall to 60,000-70,000. However, it was just a manifestation, and Hayes grabbed the deeper pulsation.

Hayes hit the nail on the head in "KISS": Trump is not an economic Puritan, but a believer in debt financing. He will not tolerate depression destroying political capital, but will use DOGE's "abundance illusion" to force Powell to open the gate. The FOMC meeting slowed QT to release $240 billion in liquidity, and the "net buying of Treasury bonds" that Powell hints is a prelude to QE. Although Hayes' estimated liquidity of US$3.24 trillion (rate cut of 1.7 trillion + QT stop of 540 billion + QE/SLR 500 billion - 1 trillion) has not been fully realized, the direction is clear. What's more, the potential effects of global easing—China's exchange rate stabilization and Europe's military expansion—will amplify this torrent. As a "liquidity barometer", Bitcoin has stabilized at US$76,500, indicating that the market has smelled a turning point.

Thompson underestimated Trump's pragmatism and the Fed's passivity. Hayes has insight into the game between human nature and policy: Trump's "real estate show man" nature is destined to choose to print money, and Powell's "forced easing" under the leadership of finance is a historical destiny. My judgment is: in the short term (6-9 months), Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of 70,000 to 90,000 to absorb the pressure of tightening; but if QE restarts in the third quarter, it is not a fantasy to sprint 250,000 at the end of the year. Hayes's "alchemy" wins in grasping the lifeblood of liquidity, rather than the illusion of austerity.

Epilogue: Symphony showdown from 50,000 to 250,000

This 50,000-250,000 battle is a battle between a calm "scalpel" and a fanatical "alchemy furnace". Thompson is like a chess player, step by step, pessimism reveals a sense of cold reality; Hayes is like a god of gambling, spending a lot of money, and optimism contains profound insight into policies. No matter who laughs the last, this debate reveals the true meaning of Bitcoin: it is not an island, but a mirror of a macro torrent. Investors might as well "hold Thompson's caution in the left hand and Hayes's fanaticism in the right hand", and wait for the thunder of QE in the midst of the shock. Will the bell of 250,000 be ringing at the end of the year? Are you ready to meet the climax of this symphony?