Crypto Agent has a pullback of more than 70%. Is it a bubble burst or a chance to buy at the bottom?

Author of this article: ABC Alpha DAO Researcher

Since DeepSeek's popularity worldwide due to its low-cost training model on January 27, global AI concept stocks have fallen in panic, and Nvidia's stock has fallen directly 17%. The Crypto Agent track has not been spared. As of today, the overall market value of the Crypto Agent track has dropped from US$12 billion to less than US$6 billion. Most blue-chip Agent tokens, such as Virtual, Ai16Z, ARC, Griffain, Aixbt, FAI All tokens all fell by more than 70%, and many Agent concept tokens fell by more than 90%.

At present, there are a lot of pessimism about the Agent track in the market, and many people directly deny the track, believing that Crypto Agent is just a short-term hype concept, and now the bubble has completely burst.

Will the Agent track be like the NFT in 2022 and the inscriptions in 2023, and will it never recover?

Is the Agent track, which was highly anticipated by the industry a month ago, really not growing stronger yet, and is about to die in the cradle?

The author has been paying attention to the development of the Agent track. He has already written an article to explain the development and future ending of Crypto Agent, so I will not repeat it in this article. My view on the Agent track has never changed: Crypto Agent is a large track with long-term growth potential. This track will be intertwined with the traditional AI industry and develop in parallel, and will eventually grow a different Agent in the Crypto field. Therefore, Crypto Agent is by no means a short-term concept hype, nor will it be as flashy as NFTs and inscriptions. The Crypto Agent track will recover quickly after a short rest. Crypto Agen is still the most worthy track in 2025.

To determine whether a Crypto track has long-term growth value, I think only three questions need to be answered:

1. Does this track really solve problems and create value?

2. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in this track?

3. Is there any continuous inflow of talents and funds in this track?

Below, we will discuss from the above three questions to discuss whether Crypto Agent has long-term growth value. Finally, is Crypto Agent a super track worthy of long-term attention?

1. What problems did Crypto Agent solve and what value did it create?

The essence of an agent is an agent, that is, an agent replaces humans to complete a series of work or specific tasks, and replaces higher-cost humans with an agent, and the agent can do better and more efficiently than humans. Therefore, the value Agent plays in various fields is mainly to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Then, the greatest value of Agent in the Crypto field will also be cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

For example, in the field of scientific paper auditing, Agent can replace humans to do scientific paper errata, and even do it more accurately, faster and cheaper than humans. #YNE is a very successful case;

For example, Agent can replace investment research personnel in the field of investment research and analysis, and #AIXBT and #REI are good cases;

For example, Agent can replace people in the field of brand marketing to provide continuous 7*24-hour brand exposure and community interaction, and #Luna is a good case.

For example, in the DeF field, Agent can replace humans to do smarter and more rational financial management, and even Agent can greatly lower the entry threshold for DeFi, thereby attracting more funds to enter the DeFi field. Therefore, the DeFAI sub-track has been extended, although the author prefers to call it DeFi Agent application. Here, #Buzz is a good case.

For example, the application of Agent in the Saas field is to use Agent to replace programmers for app deployment, that is, use Agent to subvert the current Saas field. This is one of the biggest application directions of Agent. This sentence is not what I said, it is Microsoft CEO. Satya Nadella's original words ("I think the notion of business applications might go away in the era of intelligent agents."). In the Crypto field, #Griffain is a good case.

The above examples are all biased towards the specific application direction of Crypto Agent. Although the Crypto Agent application is not perfect now, and is not even smart enough (the same is true for traditional Agent applications), human AI technology is developing rapidly, and the training cost is also greatly reduced. Large-scale Agent applications are exploded and popularized, but Time question. The Crypto Agent application can also be quickly iterated and upgraded, thereby further playing the role of reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Of course, in addition to Crypto Agent applications, the current Crypto Agent infrastructure is also very important, such as various Agent frameworks, Virtual, ARC, Ai16Z, ALCH, etc. Infrastructures such as #REI and #FAI that explore the deep integration of Crypto and Agent are also worth paying attention to.

Summary: The essence of an agent is an agent, and the value it plays is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The problem solved by Crypto Agent application is to replace people with smarter Agents to work, and the value it exerts is also to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The cost of the tokens issued by Agent as an application will also exert value in the ecosystem.

2. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in the Agent track?

In the early days of Crypto Agent's popularity, the author wrote an article explaining the relationship between Crypto and Agent and the end of the development of Crypto Agent. The original text is as follows: https://x.com/ABCAlphaDAO/status/1875429038719955189

The core point of the article is that Crypto is not only a currency of AI, but also an infrastructure that supports the needs of Agent (silicon-based person) identity, asset accounts, asset settlement and other needs. Agent leaving Crypto will lose its independent and credible social attributes. The development of Agent is inseparable from Crypto, and Agent will also become Crypto's largest service object.

Here I briefly extract three views:

1. In the future, mainstream agents will extend in two major directions. One is the Agent application controlled by individuals or companies. These applications will act as tools for humans and exist based on human will. Another direction is the Agents that build identity and account systems based on Crypto. These Agents are more independent and autonomous and have free social relations and business networks. These Agents are closer to "silicon-based people". Then, these agents must be built on Crypto, which gives these agents a private key-based identity and asset account system, because no sovereign state or organization will give these agents a borderless identity, except Crypto.

2. Agent will become Crypto's largest user group, and Agent will also help Crypto to flourish more. In the future, the number of Agents on the chain will exceed the number of human users. Crypto and Agent will be interdependent and achieve each other for a long time.

3. The consensus of the mainstream AI industry at present is that the big model model that simply relies on feeding data and computing power cannot generate real AI wisdom, allowing the big model-based Agent to imitate the communication and interaction between humans, that is, the Agent and Agent will be generated. Independent interactive communication, that is, relying on emergence to generate wisdom, is the direction of AI exploration that is currently highly anticipated, and this is also the exploration path to AGI. Based on this general background, truly independent agents must be built on Crypto, so Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in human exploration of AI.

Summary: Crypto is the infrastructure for Agent to have independent identity and account systems, and is a necessary infrastructure. The number of agents on the chain will exceed the number of real human users, and Crypto and Agents are interdependent and achieve each other. Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in human exploration of the development of AI.

3. Is there continuous inflow of talents and funds in the Agent track?

As we all know, Agent is not a unique concept in the Crypto industry, but the most mainstream development direction in the global AI industry. The current consensus is that 2025 is the first year of Agent, and Agent will usher in a continuous explosion in the next 5-10 years. Sexual growth.

Although the DeepSeek low-cost training model has had a huge impact on the AI ​​industry, especially the AI ​​chip industry, in a short period of time, these are all short-term impacts. According to the Jevons paradox (improving technological efficiency will stimulate demand), after the impact of DeepSeek, the AI ​​and Agent fields will usher in larger-scale explosions and growth.

Because the cost of AI training has dropped significantly, the cost of R&D and use of Agent has also decreased exponentially, which will greatly promote the explosion and popularization of Agent applications, and a large number of ordinary people will also be able to use Agent on a large scale. Just like the reduction in the production cost of smartphones, it has greatly increased the global Internet access rate and further promoted the development of the mobile interactive network economy.

Similarly, the continuous development of the mainstream Agent industry will continue to export creativity and development nutrients to Crypto Agent, and the Crypto Agent market will enjoy the dividend spillover of the development of the mainstream AI industry for a long time.

Crypto's more free and efficient asset issuance and fundraising methods will continue to attract outstanding global AI entrepreneurs into the Crypto field. The Crypto Agent track will be able to continue to undertake the talent and capital spillovers of the development of the traditional AI industry.

In 2025, we will see more and more professional outstanding talents in the AI ​​field enter the Crypto field, which will bring continuous talent and capital inflows to the Crypto Agent track, thereby promoting the entire track to reach a scale of over 100 billion US dollars. .

Summarize:

This article discusses whether the Crypto Agent track has long-term growth from three dimensions, explores the interaction between Crypto and Agent, and the impact of the development of mainstream AI industry on the Crypto Agent track. It was concluded that Crypto Agent meets the track judgment criteria for long-term growth. After the Crypto market stabilizes and the impact of DeepSeek, Crypto Agent will recover rapidly and usher in long-term explosive growth. As I said, Crypto Agent is still the most worthy track to pay attention to in 2025 and even this bull market.

Risk warning:

This article only represents the personal views of researchers ABC Alpha, and all views and reasoning are based on personal knowledge systems. The Agent tokens mentioned in the article are not token investment advice. The Crypto market is a high-volatility industry, please make investment judgments based on your personal cognition.