Did it fall into place? This is how institutions and traders analyze the subsequent market trends

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

On January 7, Changpeng Zhao tweeted that "$100,000 in Bitcoin is too boring." If $100,000 seems boring, what about $91,200 in Bitcoin? What may be left is only vacillation and uneasiness. The market once thought that the market would continue to rise, but it ended up with the opposite outcome: Bitcoin has been falling since January 7, and finally dropped to around US$91,200.

The cryptocurrency panic and greed index dropped to 50 today, from 69 yesterday (last week’s average was 74), and market sentiment plummeted to the level last October. The crypto market did not have the dreamy start to the new year that investors had expected. Instead, it has been ups and downs. Since December last year, the currency price trend has been like a roller coaster. Many market participants, especially altcoin holders, have experienced slight rises and plummets. The center is exhausted.

The data does not lie. According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin has continued to decline recently, the current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show that the market has generally been bearish. With market sentiment and currency prices both sluggish, how do the big guys view the subsequent market trends?

Co-founder of Real Vision: The market is entering the "banana singularity" area, and there will be a copycat season after consolidation

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal said the cryptocurrency market is entering "banana singularity" territory, or a period when "everything is going up." ("Banana Zone" is a term coined by Raoul Pal to describe a period of large price increases.)

Raoul Pal said that the market is still in the banana zone, and the first stage of this bull market was the breakthrough in November last year. What follows is a period of consolidation similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which will not last long. The next phase of the “Banana Zone” is the “Banana Singularity,” an altcoin season in which “everything goes higher, followed by a broader consolidation.”

CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, and only a few projects can survive

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on his social platform, "The altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Although the market value of Bitcoin has doubled, the total market value of altcoins is still lower than The previous historical highs were just rotating within the market without new capital inflows, and only a few altcoins with strong application scenarios and narratives could survive.”

Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH and SOL are facing the loss of key support levels, and the market is beginning to panic.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media, “This is when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:

· BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the December 5 range lows, with the market starting to accept that these support levels may not hold.

· The next support level for BTC is at $85,000, which is very far away.

· People's psychological dependence on the "January Bull Market" began to weaken, and most people realized that their unsold assets had gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, began to suffer losses, and then found that they not only gave up their profits completely , and also found that when the market fell sharply, he no longer liked the currency he held so much. "

Glassnode: If Bitcoin falls below $88,000, it may lead to further declines

Glassnode posted: “The short-term holder cost benchmark ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin price momentum. By using the URPD indicator, it can be found that there is less trading volume below the short-term holder cost benchmark, indicating that if A break below this level could trigger a further downward trend."

Trader TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate and fluctuate in the short term, and we need to focus on the non-agricultural data this Friday.

TraderS, a KOL trader on Twitter, tweeted that in terms of short-term market conditions, $92,750 may be the short-term low (or the second lowest). The market has fluctuated recently between $92,000 and $102,000. If the upper and lower limits are relaxed, it will be $88,000-$102,000. $108,000 shock. Before Trump is sworn in on 1.20, there may be time and emotion, and there may be a desire to return to more than 100,000 or even touch the previous high. If there is, most of the positions will be cleared and we will wait and see the actual performance of Sichuan Bao after taking office. If there is no chance before January 20, we may have to wait for the Spring Festival to the Indian Summer in mid-March according to metaphysical practice. The big non-farm payrolls on Friday night may be the most important reference data that sets the tone and needs to be focused on.

Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter sideways, but there are still opportunities on the chain

Crypto KOL Ansem issued an article stating that the current basic view is that August to December is the altcoin season, and October to December experienced the first round of AI token mini-bubble. He expects the market to enter an extended period of sideways trading until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this period, there will be some on-chain projects that perform well, and there will be many new projects worth participating in.

Trader Kruge: The market is too pessimistic. The Fed 's interest rate cut cycle is not over yet and it is still looking forward to new record highs.

Kruge, a well-known trader, tweeted about his views on the market in a long post: People are too bearish now. I think it's a matter of time frame. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many are even traumatized. Under normal circumstances, this sentiment may actually form a top. But this time, Tradfi is buying Bitcoin (and it’s not just Saylor who’s acting alone). They pay no heed to the trauma of crypto-natives.

So ask yourself: Has the top been reached for the stock market? This is the key. ETFs should ensure that the correlation persists. And to answer that question, you have to ask yourself another question: Is the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle over? I don't think so yet. We just heard that the Federal Reserve announced a temporary pause in raising interest rates, which has been basically priced in by the market. It's temporary, not permanent. Look at what Fed officials are saying, they still advocate further rate cuts. The market's expectations for a rate cut in 2025 have priced in almost only one rate cut. Three months ago, the number was seven.

Kruge also said: Soon the market narrative will shift again, no longer focused on the hawkish Fed and the sell-off in long-term interest rates. Trump is also about to appear. In the meantime, given the downbeat economic data and chart performance we just got, I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC prices entered the $80,000 range. But in my opinion, this is just temporary noise and requires short-term risk management. I do think traders will now sell more aggressively when BTC prices cross $100,000, thus slowing down the rise, especially before the price reaches $105,000. I also think macro factors are becoming important again. I'm not looking forward to an "easy mode" in the future. The days of easy money are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to reach new highs. We still have a long year ahead of us.