Foresign trade conflicts, unpredictable web3 settlement
Reprinted from panewslab
02/05/2025·23DThe return of Trump, eliminating disadvantages, Ma Gong's dog room, killing the Quartet.
It turned out that the map was only exclusive to the island, but I did not expect that the world -class overlord would follow this old example; it turned out that the ETH L2 ecology was chaotic enough. I did not expect that the world trading system has gradually broken. It has become a new pillar.
On February 1, 2025, Trump began to "fulfill his commitment" and began to increase tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Except for Canadian energy products, the increase in goods imported from the two countries by 25% of the additional tariffs.
Although Trump's style has always been pressured, and the final tariff does not necessarily become 100% true, but there is no turn arrow in the opening of the bow. Back to a beautiful era without IRS.
Of course, Americans are not stupid enough to believe in Trump's words. They will really think that increasing tariffs and stable prices can exist at the same time. In the United States, which is completely industrialized, any product is imported products, but it is only from the temples from the United States to the American temple to The people have entered a state of quasi -war. In order to win the final victory, temporary pain is necessary.
Economy during encryption war
After the tariff 2.0 started, the encrypted market was the first, and Bitcoin fell to 97,000. The entire market entered a decline cycle. As the previous big A, it was weak.
Theoretically, the crypto market is a global market. Even if it is not optimistic about the US tariffs on the world, there should be a large amount of funds to enter the market to avoid risks, but the premise of all this is that the currency circle is indeed a global market.
Unfortunately, the emergence of DeepSeek has broken the stereotype of the global market. If everyone is good enough, it will remember that when the DEEPSEEK V3 released technical report on December 26, 2024, the currency circle was the earliest acceptance to accept And recognize its advanced industry, earlier than the public.
 Caption: AI Agent overall trend
Image source: Coingecko
AI Agent is still prosperous at this time. The real crisis lies in the front and rear feet of $ Trump and Deepseek R1. From January 17th to January 20th, just three days, the world has two waves of shocks. The president will really issue coins. China AI will temporarily lead the United States.
Or in this way, this wave of AI agent in the currency circle is based on two premise:
- The United States' AI is alone in the world. The AI Agent is the first PAX Americana AI AGENT. The algorithm needs to maintain the lead. The British chip on the hardware is irreplaceable;
- AI Agent does not produce real profits, nor does it attract real users. The liquidity of $ Trump's sucking will not have no brain backflow. It is still narrative economics, not PMF products.
The world line is closed and returned to the trade war.
In the face of a fierce decline in the Magnifice 7 giants such as Nvidia, whether the AI Agent circuit is or the chaos of the Ethereum Foundation and the Binance, it seems insignificant.
Nvidia's chip and the price of Bitcoin. If this is the PLAN A and B of the American Revitalization Plan, it is currently questioned. The only solution is to re -establish the confidence of the global capital market for the United States.
Tariffs and trade wars will only be the first ax, and the core is the problem of rising U.S. stocks and interest rate cuts. The United States needs to cut interest rates and stabilize the economy internally. However, as a global financial country, the stock market cannot have a problem, or even only only only the stock market, or even only only only only Can rise or not, therefore, there will be only the option of US stocks rising.
In normal economic theory, the two are not easy to get both options, but the magical $ Trump can bypass the existing fiscal-monetary system, and the tariffs and trade war will create government financial resources in the short term. There is also Musk's layoffs, and the final funds can only be brought back to the capital market, unless someone really goes to the United States to start a factory.
In this system, short -term power is that tariffs need to work, so it can be inferred that even if Canada has compromised in Trump, Trump's tariff stations around the world will only be more intense.
In the long run, the financial role of cryptocurrencies will be inevitable, that is, either the US dollar -the Federal Reserve system gets rid of nominal independence, and achieves closer political cooperation with Trump. "Dollar.
But there is no doubt that for the cryptocurrency itself, the driving force is no longer the blockchain technology or decentralized concept. After all, Vitalik itself admits that it will have the final control of the Ethereum Foundation. Political forces, the largest CEX to stand, USDT publisher and operator must stand, and even every speculative coin must make their own choices.
The state of wartime, so in 2025, came true.
Two worlds
Looking at the main theme of 2025, the crushing of world trade has become true. Regionalization has actually replaced the old globalization of the United States -centered and the WTO as the mechanism. The only remaining is that the US dollar is still global currency.
In fact, Trump has warned the BRICS countries not to challenge the US dollar status, but everyone understands that if the United States does not participate in global trade, the currency of the use of non -trading countries is very strange, but everyone understands that there is no any, there is no any, there is no any. State or organization's currency can challenge the US dollar status.
To this end, the world is rare.
Blockchain technology has tried. The MBridge participated in the International Clearance Bank (BIS) is one of them, focusing on the settlement between CBDC. The Central Bank of China, the Central Bank of the Emirates, and other regional central banks and enterprises have tried;
However, BIS cannot meet the division world. BIS has exited the MBridge plan. There is no reason. Too many BRICS countries participate. BIS may have been accused of helping Russia and other countries in the West. The people are South Korea, Japan, the European Union and other countries. At a glance, the East and the West are clear.
The web3 project has also continued to advance, and the Payfi concept entered a long -term construction stage. Huma Finance hopes that the corporate cross -border settlement in the RIPPLE era after opening, of course, can only be stable coins, but the power of a project is ultimately limited. B2B becomes the most mainstream. The choice has no chance to finally.
Web3 super individuals are at a loss. In the era of CEX big explosion, it can win stable big cakes, Ether, and even BNB, but in the PVP era, super individuals need to face the super fast response of robots. The unscrupulous PUA of the unscrupulous VC, the old days of the old days have disappeared after all.
Last year, the web3 settlement based on stable currency may be the biggest trend of the industry, but now it is difficult to say that after the AI Agent turned off, the entire industry entered the boring and lengthy soap opera mode and started the short complaint mode of the parents. VC said that he has 6 times the income and suffering. CEX said that he had reached a platform currency of 100 billion yuan and the transaction volume of 1 million trillion.
Conclusion
There is no real emphasis in this world, and humans cannot rejoice with their own kind, but before the U.S. stock epic callback, I hope there will be our own opportunity.
From any perspective, this DeepSeek surprise attack is just a preview of the next long and intense battle. I hope we can all be prepared before that.
jinse