How long will Bitcoin price consolidation last?

Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Bitcoin price has been consolidating between $91,500 and $106,500 since its first break through the $90,000 mark on November 19.

But based on several technical and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin’s consolidation may be nearing its end. The key question remaining is when Bitcoin will break through consolidation.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price trend: currently sideways consolidation

A cryptocurrency analyst said Bitcoin could continue to consolidate in the current range for some time, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threat triggered massive cryptocurrency clearings and raised concerns about a trade war.

In an analysis of X on February 5, Rekt Capital said that although Bitcoin retested $101,000 on February 3, BTC failed to “transform its daily closing price into a new support level.” He added:

“BTC may temporarily consolidate between $98,300 and $101,000.”

BTC/USD Daily Candle Chart. Source: Rekt Capital

For independent analyst Arjantit, Bitcoin 's current consolidation cycle may continue until the end of February.

Arjantit says:

• Bitcoin price is consolidating after a 15-week increase (+105%).

• As long as BTC/USD stays above $90,000, its daily structure will remain strong.

• However, a break below $90,000 could be a “buy opportunity.”

• The consolidation cycle may end at the end of February, after which BTC will rebound to $120,000.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Artjantit

BTC demand has not yet reached its peak

As BTC prices break through the $100,000 mark, many market participants expect investors' exposure to Bitcoin to increase. However, data show that new demand is still "much lower than" demand during the peak periods of previous cycles.

Glassnode describes the current BTC price trend as an "atypical market cycle", and its latest Week On Chain report states:

• When the record highs hit 2017, new demand for Bitcoin was 26%, and at the peak of the bull cycle in 2021 it was 32%.

• New demand is 23% at the moment when it hits an all-time high of $109,000.

Glassnode added:

[T] The new demand for BTC comes primarily from large entities, not small retail entities.

Bitcoin implements the HODL ratio. Source: Glassnode

Therefore, it may be necessary for small businesses to continue to provide new demands to end the current consolidation period.

Meanwhile, Google Trends also showed that social interest has declined compared to previous cycles:

Bitcoin search volume has not yet reached the level during the 2021 bull market.

Bitcoin interest changes over time. Source: Google Trends

Once investor interest heats up again, Bitcoin may break through the consolidation phase.

Bitcoin price breakthrough is coming soon--Bolly Line

Bitcoin volatility indicators show that the consolidation of Bitcoin prices is a precursor to a major breakthrough.

Key points:

• Conditions for tightening the Bollinger bands indicate that the breakout may be very close.

• The daily Bollinger Band bandwidth is extremely oversold, touching the green line below.

• The width of the Bollinger band is currently narrower than when Bitcoin priced at $68,000 in November 2024.

• BTC/USD then rose 46% from $67,300 on November 5 to $99,317 on November 22.

• The indicator was also so tight in June 2024 and January 2024, after BTC prices rose by 31% and 19% respectively.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

• If history repeats itself, the price of Bitcoin will break through the current range in the next few days or weeks.