How should the US government view BTC? Can BTC replace Treasury bonds as reserve assets

Original title: [The Genie](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the- genie-348d557b4fd4)

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX; translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Pax Americana Make-A-Wish Corporation, based in Mar-a-Lago, has hosted many pleaders. Cryptocurrency people are also waiting in line like everyone else, hoping to achieve one or more wishes. The capricious elf The Orange Man is surrounded by a bunch of flatterers who preside over the big picture in the South Florida swamps and plays 1980s pop music every week in his country nightclub.

There is no distinction between good and bad in elves. What we should judge is the wish of the recipient. Every culture has a moral story about how false wishes that aim to achieve shortcuts for success, wealth, or personal happiness have unintended consequences. The moral of this story is that there are no simple buttons in life; all good things are the product of hard work and hard work.

I intend to discuss the key aspirations of many in the global crypto industry regarding the establishment of Bitcoin Strategic Reserves (BSR) and crypto regulation under the U.S. rule. Broadly speaking, many misguided crypto people want the U.S. government to print dollars and buy bitcoin as part of the state’s reserves and to develop regulatory moats for crypto businesses that have economic interests. I believe these people have asked wrongly. Let's do something difficult, ask the elves for something that the next government cannot easily revoke, regardless of the party's ownership.

In the first part of this article, I will discuss why the BSR and the Frankenstein Crypto Regulatory Act are negative for the industry, both locally and globally. Next, I will advise those who are lined up day after day in bubble yarn suits or thick heels and summer outfits who want to make wishes to the orange elves, what wishes they should ask the orange elves to fulfill.

Bitcoin strategic reserves

You can buy it and sell it. The fundamental problem with the government hoarding any assets is that they buy and sell assets mainly for political interests, not financial interests. Given the current structure of the global economic system, does Bitcoin itself have any role for the US government? No. Bitcoin is just another financial asset. While readers may consider this the hardest currency ever created by Satoshi Nakamoto, the only true god, I can assure you that the motive of this elf is not the spiritual need to please God. His motivation is to appease the electorate base that helped him take office.

Let's assume that Trump is able to create a BSR. The government bought one million bitcoins, as U.S. Senator Lummis suggested. Bang! Prices are soaring. Then, the purchase ends and the uptrend channel stops.

Fast forward two to four years. By 2026, Democrats may win by taking advantage of voters’ grievances over Trump’s failure to calm inflation, stop any endless wars, resolve food supply issues, drain swamps, and more. What if they got a vetoed majority in the House? By 2028, what would happen if the Democrats won the election...

For an incoming Democratic-controlled legislature or president, finding a large sum of cash to buy goodies for supporters is the top order. This is the primary command of any politician, regardless of the political system. There is a million bitcoins right there and ready to be sold; just sign on a piece of paper. The market will naturally worry about when and how these bitcoins will be sold. Is this done to minimize the impact on the market and maximize the USD you receive, or does it maliciously do so in order to punish support Orange cryptocurrency holders? We don't know, but this uncertainty limits people's enthusiasm for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency capital market.

Create altcoins from BSR or state reserves, including cryptocurrencies like Ripple, to turn any cryptocurrency held by the government into a powerful political weapon. Furthermore, as a purely political strategy, will the U.S. government have meaningful participation in community activities? Will they donate to sponsor Bitcoin core developers? Will they run nodes? Maybe…but from the way you talk about BSR, it seems to me that it is an exercise to forget if you set it up. Trump and the Republicans can look at the sky-high price of Bitcoin, claim the mission is completed, and sell more campaign donations to David Bailey at $10,000 per dish. Don't hate players, hate games. Asking the elves to realize this wish will bring unnecessary pain in less than two years.

The Frankenstein Crypto Act

The easiest way to understand which crypto regulations holders believe are acceptable is to observe their portfolio. From my point of view – away from the circus surrounding the elves – it seems that those who own a large stake in centralized crypto financial intermediaries are most likely to fulfill their desire for crypto regulation because of the high noise they generate . Unfortunately, those who build truly decentralized technologies and applications don’t have enough financial resources to play with politics at the juncture of this cycle. The richest crypto brothers all have exchanges, brokerage services or some kind of lending platform.

Therefore, the desire for crypto-regulation may be realized, if any, in the form of overly complex, prescriptive rules that can only be afforded by large and wealthy centralized companies. This is because the only person who can explain the law will be professional corporate lawyers who come in and out of various letter regulators.

Is this what the broader crypto community really wants from the elves? Is it all about making Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink richer? I'm not a hater; they're just doing their jobs...maximize shareholder value by creating a monopoly structure that has unique benefits to their business. Perhaps those readers who are shareholders of Coinbase and Blackrock want a Frankenstein crypto bill. But I believe this regulation will not change the status quo. Although it has no direct negative impact on encryption, it is not positive.

For all global builders who have moved to the United States because of the so- called crypto-friendly government, be aware. If you acquiesce to such an outcome, your entrepreneurship will be doomed to fail. Monopoly enterprises are surrounded by an insurmountable regulatory wall and are not friendly to real innovation. They use their unique privileges to enter the system, expelling potential usurpers. As the founder of a startup, you may fly to Kennedy in Business Class, but you will definitely take Economy Class when you leave.

make a wish

What wish will I make? I'll tell you. In my style, in order to understand my desires, I need to review some financial history and provide my explanation for certain events.

The biggest question is, why would the elves satisfy my wishes or similar wishes? The elves and his lieutenants are the ones who truly rule the empire, and they will only satisfy my wishes and help them achieve their goals.

The overall goal of Trump’s two most important deputy—U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becent and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio—is to reform the global economic order to maintain the dollar and U.S. hegemony. As I briefly mentioned in my previous article "Arthur Hayes: Why BTC may fall to $70,000 and then rise to $250,000" , the dollar system is divided into two parts. That is, currency and reserve assets. The U.S. dollar has been a reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, but reserve assets have changed over time.

The dollar system reserve assets change over time:

1944-1971: Gold

During this period, the value of the dollar was fixed at $35 per ounce of gold. Certain sovereign states, as allies of the United States peace, were allowed to convert US dollars into gold at the above prices.

1971-1994: Oil

U.S. President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in order to maintain the continued Vietnam War and the increased social welfare plan formulated by his former U.S. President Lyndon Johnson. Reserve assets become petrodollars. Saudi Arabia is the first country to explicitly agree to price oil in US dollars and use its dollar surplus to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds. Now the Treasury can issue bonds, which are supported primarily by oil flows from the largest marginal hydrocarbon producers.

1994–2025: Foreign exchange reserves of global exporters

Throughout the 1980s, the United States was able to increase oil production and increase energy efficiency in its economy. The rise of China and other four Asian dragons (such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, etc.) means that the United States and Western Europe can produce goods at a low price. In 1994, China carried out a large-scale devaluation of the RMB and officially joined the mercantilist competition to reserve as much foreign hard currency as possible through exports. These exporters are allowed to sell goods to the vast Western consumer market, as long as they price goods in US dollars and buy U.S. Treasuries with their dollar surplus.

2025-? : Bitcoin/Gold

In most ancient times before the European Renaissance, China was the largest economy in the world; China's established goal was to regain glory for the Chinese people. Making America great again is not a unique idea of ​​the United States; the Chinese have been doing this since 1949.

To achieve this goal, China has transformed from a low-cost, low-quality producer to a low-cost, high-quality producer. As people clearly realize that buying more and more government bonds with surpluses has further consolidated China's status as the U.S. sub-power, the Chinese government has stopped accumulating government bonds. According to the old self-evident agreement, a dollar of export surplus must purchase one dollar of government bonds. China has gained a $1 trillion export surplus in public figures over the past 12 months, but allowed its Treasury reserves to fall by $14 billion. [1]

Other exporting countries have also noticed this. Although most trade is settled in US dollars, most of the fast-growing southern countries around the world trade more with China than with the United States. De-dollarization is not about abandoning the dollar itself, but about investing surplus in assets that are not recognized by the elites under the US rule.

This reminds me of the dilemma faced by Trump's deputy. They need to create a new system that retains the dollar as the denominated currency for trade and invests in a reserve asset that allows them to maintain a well-functioning U.S. Treasury market. If they were really cruel enough, they would design a solution that quickly reduces the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio to around 30%, which is the level in 2000.

The world will no longer accept national debt savings. This is why a neutral reserve asset must be chosen. No country has tried to recommend replacing the US dollar with the fiat currency they created domestically. This is because peace under the U.S. is declining, and it is directly related to the imbalance that is bound to arise due to the empire's role as a reserve currency issuer.

This is financial history, but before I express my wish, I want to talk about how one of the most influential TradFi money market strategists thinks the problem I described above can be solved.

DeepSeek

Zoltan Pozsar, formerly a staff member of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in Dallas, is a credit Swiss strategist. He is currently a blogger with readers of the financial elite in the American peace era. His solutions may be implemented and I will describe these solutions soon. Therefore, it is worth discussing these solutions and then discussing how I deviated from his ideas. Ultimately, I think his solution works in the 1980s, not 2025. Too many strategists who believe in American exceptionalism believe that regaining the power and prestige of American peace is like the storyline of the movie Top Gun.

Recently, in the Top Gun remake, Tom Cruise is still alive, and with a slight adjustment, it can appropriately compare the current world relationship. A nearly $75 million F-18 was replaced with an Iranian Shahed drone worth $50,000, sold in the south of the world. Tom Cruise, in his 60s, is still flying these overpriced aircraft against a bunch of AI-connected drones for a fraction of the latter’s price.

This reminds me of DeepSeek. If you live only inside TikTok without knowing it, DeepSeek is a revolutionary AI Large Language Model (LLM) that performs as well as ChatGPT or Claude, but reduces training costs by 95%. It is open source, and so far, no CEO of a large tech giant, such as NVIDIA or Satya Nadella (Microsoft), said its results and costs were unreasonable.

DeepSeek is important because it was developed by a Chinese hedge fund in Hangzhou. In terms of high-performance semiconductors, China is under economic blockade by the United States. According to the US, Chinese entrepreneurs should not be able to train and deploy a LL.M. that performs close to training using high-performance chips designed in the US. DeepSeek's obvious success breaks the fantasy of "whoever invests the most can create the best performing Master of Laws". This further proves that need is the mother of all inventions. Economic sanctions cannot stop a small team of staunch Chinese entrepreneurs of 200 people. If the ground offensive destroys China's production capacity, the era of American exceptionalism may end. There is nothing wrong with being ordinary unless your entire identity is encased in the fictional concept of nationality and you have a sense of superiority just because you were born in “America.”

When non-American elites think they are inferior in nature, they follow orders. This helps the U.S. financial elites develop policies such as what currency a country uses in trade and how their country’s surplus invests. If non-Americans think they are equal, they may not surrender and accept orders from American diplomats. This is important for Zoltan's policy recommendations, as they are bilateral measures. Becente said "do this", and a country's finance department will acquiesce. If the country refuses, nothing will happen. This is the fatal weakness of Zoltan's policy measures.

Zoltan's goal is the same as mine: to devalue US Treasury bonds. Furthermore, Zoltan correctly pointed out that the United States must extend the maturity of its debt stock and reduce the amount of interest paid. Let's assume that Becent wants to reduce debt to GDP from 100% to 30%. If GDP remains the same, the actual value of debt needs to fall by 70%. Zoltan The general theme of various ideas is to require foreign Treasury holders to exchange short-term bonds for centennial bonds. Centennial bonds are not traded, but can be repurchased at par if the country needs cash. [2]

Let me explain the mechanism:

Suppose you, a global southern country, hold 10-year Treasury bonds worth $100, and the face value is also $100.

• At Bessent's request, you exchange your 10-year Treasury bond for zero-interest 100-year Treasury bond (centennial bond). The century-old bond is worth $30 and the face value is $100. I cleverly applied bond math to make this example easier to understand. Bonds with no coupon income and longer maturity throughout the entire expiration period have lower intrinsic value than bonds with shorter maturity.

• The actual value of your debt has depreciated by 70%, but its face value is still $100.

• If you are a good ally (Europe... a little suspicious) or a vassal (Philippines... I think Europe belongs here), you can call the Fed and exchange a century-old bond for a face value for the dollar for free. Imagine you need to buy some oil from Saudi Arabia in US dollars, and the actual value of a century-old bond is $30, but the Fed will give you $100 today, and there is no interest.

• Any dollar surplus can only be invested in future Century bonds. You may not buy anything else.

This is a good and bad deal. The bad thing is that you suffer a 70% actual depreciation. You just agreed to destroy your country's savings. Worse, you also agree that the only place to get the liquidity of this debt is the issuer itself, not the global market. But on the other hand, if you perform well, you can get interest-free loans from the Fed.

There are several points to point out that, in general, this shows that the deal is not accepted by many. For many countries, China is now their largest trading partner, not the United States. American weapons cannot be sold because they use them to arm Ukraine. In addition, US weapons are just intermediate products that China re-exports, so why not go directly to the source?

My Wish

Can I improve Zoltan’s idea? sure.

The goal remains the same: devaluate existing Treasury bonds, retain the US dollar as trading currency, and extend the Treasury bond maturity to 100 years. Another new goal is to make Bitcoin a global neutral reserve currency.

It is very important to choose an object that depreciates fiat currency. If you devalue anything that has a practical purpose, such as oil or food, you are at risk of social collapse due to inflation. The object of devaluation must be something else that will not make most civilians truly impoverish.

Zoltan chooses depreciation time. You trade 10-year bonds for 100-year assets. The time value of the currency determines that what you get after 100 years is less than 10 years. But the other party must agree to the exchange. I think devaluation should be targeted at Bitcoin and can be done unilaterally, and will eventually have the same effect.

My plan:

Step 1: Statement

Becent delivered a speech announcing that the United States intends to redefine a global reserve currency system, using the US dollar as the denominated currency, but the reserve assets are Bitcoin.

Step 2: Gradually depreciate

The Treasury will bid for Bitcoin at a USD price higher than the current market price, so that over time, the total market value of Bitcoin will be large enough to promote its role as a global reserve asset. Specifically, if Bitcoin is to become as big as the Treasury market, the price of Bitcoin must rise to $1.8 million.

Example:

If BTCUSD = $100,000, Bessent said they would buy BTC for $200,000. The problem is that instead of providing the sellers with cash dollars, he offers them the 100-year zero-interest bond (centennial bond) on the chain. He also allows anyone who provides appropriate information about himself to buy back the bonds at face value cash without interest for one year. In fact, the BTC seller received the US dollar, but it was obtained as a loan. The real asset of the seller is a century-old bond.

Market reaction:

Since Bessent buys BTC at a price higher than the spot price, arbitrage can be made. Traders can borrow USD, buy BTC spot at a price lower than the Treasury bid, sell it to the Treasury in exchange for a century-old bond, buy back the century-old bond in USD, and then repay the loan. Since this is done on-chain, anyone around the world can trade, BTC will quickly rise to Bessent's bid.

criticize:

Why do BTC holders sell BTC for shit-like Century Bonds? Because the price is very high. This is also why people think it is a good idea to hand over BTC to BlackRock. If the price is right, most ideals and common sense will disappear.

Step 3: Maturing Treasury Bonds

Now, the Ministry of Finance has BTC in terms of assets and Century Bonds in terms of liabilities. The market will expect Bessent to raise bids again and take the lead. Now, the Treasury can sell its BTC in a profitable way. Assume that the market transaction is BTCUSD = $300,000, but Bessent bought BTC for $200,000. This $100,000 profit can be used to buy back 10-year Treasury bonds. In fact, Bessent can extend the weighted average maturity (WAM) of Treasury bonds step by step.

Treasury holders will not be at a disadvantage because they know that Bessent will use trading profits to buy non-circulating Treasury bonds. This is crucial because it retains the pricing mechanisms for TradFi institutions that use Treasury bonds as collateral and loan solvency.

Step 4: Social Media Banking

To further consolidate the dollar's role outside of China, in China, large U.S. social media platforms (Facebook and X) have been banned, Bessent encouraged Zuckerberg (Facebook CEO) and Musk (X CEO) to allow the company to be allowed to be Their US dollar stablecoin transfer is made within their app. Obviously, they should use Ethena's synthetic USDe. Now, the whole world, most importantly the global South, Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram are the main ways of online communication and business, which will use U.S. dollar banks. This completely offsets any attempt to de-dollarize these countries. And leaders can’t stop it because if they try to take away the digital dopamine of civilians, revolutions will take place overnight. The United States cannot even ban China-owned TikTok because young people will burn any politicians related to the ban in the next election.

As the surplus of digital dollars in grassroots systems continues to accumulate, these can be preserved in the form of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. If the price of Bitcoin gradually rises, small holders will be tempted to sell the Bitcoin back to the Ministry of Finance in exchange for centenary bonds. Now, U.S. debt is no longer held by a few countries, but by the lower-class people around the world. It is difficult to manage a few cats, but it is impossible to manage billions of cats. That is, it is unlikely that all debt holders will flee at the same time. Ultimately, the Treasury hopes its debt holders will be cautious.

Technical blueprint

No matter what World Liberty Financial tells investors what they are building; that's what they should do. If you don’t know, World Liberty Financial (WLF) is a cryptocurrency institution associated with the Trump family. The goal here is to bring immediate change to the U.S. Treasury Department by leveraging Web3 and WLF to help build infrastructure. This eliminates the intermediary role of large “too big to collapse” banks, but in addition to triggering financial crises again and again, the need to print money to rescue them, and ultimately creating monetary inflation that destroys the soul of the empire, they actually do it for the empire. What? Just stroll through the legal financial capital of New York under the US rule. Nightclubs are brightly lit, but depressing scenes of poverty, homelessness and crime are filled with everyday life.

The Web3 technology stack should be powered by a public blockchain. You all know what will happen. Always closed! In this spirit, Aptos is the best choice. It is the fastest (800 milliseconds), the cheapest (USD 0.00005 per transaction) and the most reliable (99.99% uptime) public blockchain for high- performance financial transactions. And it shows that. According to RWA.xyz, Aptos is quietly approaching the top three networks with the most institutional assets on the chain and has established partnerships with Franklin Templeton, Brevan Howard and Microsoft. Its MOVE architecture is designed internally by Facebook to handle financial transactions on the world's largest social network.

Maelstrom will not be available for free. To be clear, we have a lot of Aptos and Ethena.

The U.S. Treasury Department needs an on-chain exchange that can trade digital dollars, century bonds and Bitcoin.

First, the Ministry of Finance needs digital dollars. Tether's USDT and Ethena's USDe should be recognized as digital dollars. USDT is just the dollar escrowed in the U.S. banking system. USDe is a long cryptocurrency plus short perpetual swaps, resulting in synthetic USD; all assets are entrusted on large cryptocurrency exchanges. Politics is about boys’ work, so how can existing governments benefit from choosing both solutions? U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick owns a stake in Tether. WLF owns $ENA, a multimillion-dollar Ethena governance token. Equity and token holders will benefit if Tether and Ethena are selected as digital dollars approved by the U.S. Treasury Department. Self-interest is the driving force behind the operation of human civilization.

Secondly, the Ministry of Finance needs to tokenize Century Bonds. The Ministry of Finance issues tokens representing each bond (TSY100). TSY100 is available when purchased with encapsulated bitcoin on Aptos (you can already encapsulate bitcoin using Wormhole, Celer, and Layerzero). Next, a repurchase facility, TSY100, can be pledged and a USDT or USDe loan can be created.

Note: Technically, the Treasury cannot create USDT or USDe. Therefore, if the pledger wants USDT, the Treasury must mint USDT by remitting USD to Tether's bank account. If the staker wants USDe, the Ministry of Finance must mint USDT and then mint USDe; all of this can be completed using the API provided by Tether and Ethena.

Third, the Ministry of Finance needs to establish a licensed Web3 money market exchange, which we call EagleSwap. The Ministry of Finance already has an authenticated service called ID.me (this is just an example of an online authentication service). This service can be expanded so that any user around the world can sign a message to add the Aptos wallet to the whitelist. When you connect an Aptos wallet to EagleSwap from your desktop or mobile device, if you are whitelisted, you can exchange it between USDT, USDe, TSY100 and packaged Bitcoin. EagleSwap will soon be the most liquid place to trade these instruments, as Bessent is in charge of the world's largest fiat currency, buying and selling Bitcoin, US dollar and Treasury bonds.

The next phase of the connection is the connection between the U.S. Treasury and Broligarch-owned social media platforms. Facebook and X are two major social media candidates to launch crypto wallets to their global user base. By connecting users to EagleSwap in an abstract way, users can now transfer, trade and store digital dollars, century bonds and package Bitcoin. The most urgent need for the Global South is to trade in US dollars outside its TradFi banking system. The US dollar is a junk currency, but most other fiat currencies have Marburg Ebola virus. Similarly, connective tissue should be constructed using Aptos.

Judging by their top seats at Trump’s inauguration, Broligarchs are certainly in power. They need to take the next step to suppress parasitic TradFi banks.

I have discussed the unilateral devaluation of the dollar and the techniques to implement this policy. Next, I will discuss why the United States can have an unfair advantage in "producing" neutral reserve assets if it enacts the right legislation.

Neutral reserve assets

To get the elites under the rule of the United States to accept this solution, the United States must have some unfair advantages in Bitcoin mining. To mine Bitcoin, energy must be consumed to solve random problems. The first question is, does the United States have cheap and abundant energy?

In terms of energy production, the United States has two advantages. First, a large number of unexplored hydrocarbon deposits are surrounded by an imaginary curve that humans call America. All that is needed is the funding and approval for drilling. The best thing about drilling will ultimately provide energy for Bitcoin mining sites is that it doesn’t matter where the energy is located. Usually, energy is located far from the center of the population it serves. The transportation of hydrocarbons is sometimes more costly than the marginal cost of drilling. But if you deliver hydrocarbons to a power plant on site that only provides electricity to mine bitcoins, you don't have to pay for shipping. Many remote areas are rich in energy, so there is no need to build politically controversial pipelines and channels to transport hydrocarbons, just build local power stations and Bitcoin mines. Alaska is remote and has abundant hydrocarbon reserves, and the climate is cold most of the year. This is the ideal place to build a Bitcoin mine powered by stranded energy.

The second commitment of the United States is a commitment to capitalism. I'm not saying it's morally good or bad; it's just a factual statement. The United States is a country built by a group of tax-evading slave traders who created a constitution that guarantees that their capital would increase value over time and allows their descendants to remain in power economically and politically. What else is more suitable to start a multi-year project than drilling hydrocarbons and mining Bitcoin?

Another benefit is the construction of domestic semiconductor wafer fabs in the United States. Several of Taiwan Semiconductor's state-of-the-art fabs in Arizona are about to be completed. The government will vigorously encourage other foundries to build fabs in the United States through subsidies and tax cuts. Bitcoin ASIC chips can be produced domestically, so if global demand rises sharply with prices, there will never be a shortage.

There is a huge problem: while fiat capital is treated world-class in the United States, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies do not. What we need is support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at a constitutional level. Bitcoin miners cannot conduct any kind of review, but lawmakers may require miners and/or node operators to conduct the review. Public crypto ledgers need to become a protected form of speech. This makes sense because public blockchains are digital immutable speech chains hosted on decentralized networks powered by miners’ burning electricity.

If the United States wants to be the best place to mine Bitcoin, it will need to enact a simple bill of less than two hundred words:

“Cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by blockchain are forms of protected speech. All laws that apply to protect freedom of speech apply to users or intermediaries of public blockchain technology. Cryptocurrencies and public blockchains are private, and no government agency may force intermediaries, participants or node operators of the blockchain itself to collect and generate data about participants and transactions.”

With the passage of governments that support energy and crypto legislation that supports permissionless innovation, the United States will have the necessary conditions to include most of the global crypto activities within its territory. Given the substantial capital expenditures in energy production and ASIC chip manufacturing, coupled with the liquid fiat capital market and legal protections for peer-to-peer decentralized network operations, the United States will be home to most Bitcoin network hash rates. Neutral reserve assets will then be effectively produced within the United States.

Finally, it would be very difficult to overturn such legislation. Despite some politicians’ negative impact on large tech and social media companies, little progress has been made in repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1996, which gives tech platforms content hosted and carried out on their web. and immunity of activities. The status quo is really profitable. Similar expedient marriages can also form between cryptocurrencies and politicians, cryptocurrency companies and individuals who are in desperate need of high- paying jobs and increased tax bases.

Holder

If Becente can push the price of Bitcoin to more than $1.8 million, it will create the richest person in human history. Some of the largest Bitcoin holders live in the United States or are companies in the United States. Less than a year after its Bitcoin ETF was launched, BlackRock holds nearly 600,000 bitcoins, worth nearly $60 billion. Given that American political power depends largely on wealth, this group will be able to exert a huge political influence. If the Republicans implement these measures, cryptocurrency holders will become loyal supporters for years or decades.

Remember, the goal of politicians is to be re-election. Except for Trump, everyone who agrees with his political philosophy will be re-election in 2026 or 2028. As a Republican politician, what better way to ensure that you remain in power than to make U.S. cryptocurrency holders extremely rich while further consolidating the dollar hegemony?

Global response

Will other surplus countries accept Bitcoin as a reserve asset?

Yes.

Assuming Bitcoin’s market capitalization is large enough to support trillions of dollars in transactions, it has many advantages over Treasury bonds.

• Bitcoin’s code cannot be changed unilaterally by anyone.

• Even if some American miners try to hard fork the blockchain, excluding certain transactions or changing the total amount of Bitcoin mining, it will cause Bitcoin to fall to zero on the new chain, and all their assets will immediately become worthless. The economic game theory behind the Bitcoin blockchain determines that this situation will not happen.

• As long as you have an Internet connection, you can access and trade Bitcoins anytime, anywhere without permission.

• Bitcoin is the purest monetary energy derivative in human imagination. Therefore, it will retain the energy value of the transaction surplus over time.

No country, even China, wants to become a global reserve currency issuer and make its bond market a global reserve asset. The natural result is the requirement to open a capital account and the adverse impact on most people when you stop producing any actual product and just engage in financial engineering. This is certainly not "common prosperity". So a system that keeps the dollar for trade, or even bilaterally exchanges local currencies, but surplus is a step forward for everyone... Except for those traditional financial institutions that are too big to fail, they watch As one's own power and prestige gradually fades, decentralized finance is emerging.

Wishes come true

Stacking Sats is my game, and so do I hope you. So if you find yourself sitting at the elf’s desk, wearing impressive clothes, make the right wishes.

postscript

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are one of the smartest people in the world and one of the most innocent people, but Trump is offering a crash course in politics.

In less than 60 days, the cryptocurrency price rose from $70,000 to $110,000, based on every cryptocurrency enthusiast who can fulfill all the desire to do about how cryptocurrencies are regulated under the U.S. rule. The first problem with this idea is that in a bilateral exchange of value, you always want to receive the goods first and then pay. Trump and the Republicans first got what they wanted from cryptocurrencies: enough votes to win the presidency and a party majority in the House and Senate. 现在是“付钱”的时候了，他们和我们这些堕落的投机者并不在同一条一秒钟的蜡烛时间线上。

我这么说是因为特朗普正在创建工作组、参议院小组委员会，而不是采取行动。 当特朗普想采取行动时，他就会采取行动。对美国最大贸易伙伴征收25% 的关税在几天内就宣布并实施了。政府机构内ESG 和DEI 政策的取消来得很快。我引用这些例子来证明特朗普不会为加密货币做一些积极的事情，但加密货币监管或比特币战略储备不是他或该党的首要任务。这很遗憾，因为在边缘上，加密货币单一问题选民让他们掌权。

随着全球社会迅速意识到美国的政治并没有因为特朗普当选而发生如此巨大的变化，加密货币的价格将跌至2024 年第四季度的水平。我仍然呼吁重新测试70,000 美元至75,000 美元的比特币。

什么可以让加密货币摆脱这种困境？美联储、美国财政部、日本等以某种形式印钞，或允许无许可加密创新的具体立法。 弗兰肯斯坦加密法案将使Coinbase、贝莱德和stonk 投资者受益。但对于我们这些加密货币退化者来说，这不会将市场推向新的高度。这不会进一步实现权力下放的目标。这将是对上帝的侮辱，惩罚将迅速而严厉。

还有希望，如果你是美国加密货币持有者，那就赶紧离开，让你选出的代表知道你不会像往常一样支持政治。给他们发电子邮件、写信或访问他们当地的办公室。政客们对那些对政策感兴趣的人反应非常积极。如果你认为比特币战略储备是必要的，现在就大发雷霆，不要只是对X 的评论点赞。问题是，我们的数字设备让我们可以在自己的回音室内肆虐，但却很少鼓励我们在现实世界中采取需要付出一点努力的具体行动。你真正重视的一切都是有代价的。没有加密政治的简单按钮——睁开你的眼睛，小心下面的情况。

Comments

[1] 请参阅美国财政部每月的TIC 数据库。

[2] 回购协议或回购协议是一种贷款，其中一方以一定利率将债券等资产与另一方交换为现金。到期时，债券和现金将交换回原持有人。