PA Daily | Arthur Hayes predicts a sharp market correction in mid-March; Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts
Reprinted from panewslab
01/07/2025·2MToday’s news tips:
Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction
Prediction markets suggest pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next prime minister
“The first user on the SWARMS & ZEILGO list” spent 203.92 SOL to buy PRISM last night
Ripple CEO: The company’s original $11 billion valuation is “seriously outdated”
Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage
Regulation/Macro
U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have raised more than $3.7 billion to buy Bitcoin since November
U.S. Bitcoin miners are accumulating cryptocurrency funds to help them withstand tightening profit margins as competition for resources intensifies, Money Times reported. Companies including Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark have taken advantage of the surge in Bitcoin prices to raise more than $3.7 billion from investors since November and then used the funds to buy Bitcoin. They typically raise capital through zero-coupon (or near-zero) convertible bonds. Core Scientific chief development officer Russell Cann said: "It's not as simple as everyone being happy after the Bitcoin price rises. There are still complex challenges around profitability and grid access." Miners' plans also include expanding the capabilities of artificial intelligence , marking a sharp reversal in the industry’s prospects. The industry has struggled over the past eight months following the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards. Cann also said: “The demand for artificial intelligence in the United States will greatly affect the scale of Bitcoin mining.” He predicted that in the next few years, most of Bitcoin’s computing power will come from outside the United States.
According to Cointelegraph, Pierre Poilievre, a popular candidate for Canadian Prime Minister, has promised to make Canada a “cryptocurrency capital.” According to a video that has been circulating on the Internet recently, during a campaign event in March 2022, Poilievre used Bitcoin to buy a shawarma and promised to "make Canada a world leader in blockchain and cryptocurrency." Capital” plan. During his speech at the event, he blasted the central bank system and Canada’s cryptocurrency regulation. He also said Bitcoin could help Canadians "escape" inflation - and he was blasted with a Liberal attack ad at the end of the same year after the cryptocurrency market plunged in 2023. Poilievre has made other pro-cryptocurrency statements, including a 2022 post promising “buyers and sellers the right to freely choose Bitcoin and other technologies.” He also called the Bank of Canada "illiterate in finance" and vowed to prevent the bank from issuing a "dangerous central bank digital currency." Most recently, in April 2024, he posted on social media in support of a bill that would ban central bank digital currencies and protect the use of cash. According to a CBC News poll, Poilievre has led the Conservative Party since 2022. As of January 6, the party is 24 points ahead of the ruling Liberal Party and has a 98% chance of winning a majority. Earlier today, news broke that prediction markets indicated that pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre is expected to become Canada’s next prime minister.
Prediction markets suggest pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next prime minister
According to The Block, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, prediction market users predicted that Pierre Poilievre, a politician who supports cryptocurrency and leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, has an 89% chance of being elected as Canada’s next prime minister. In 2022, Poilievre revealed that he had a personal holding in Purpose Bitcoin, a Canada-based cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund, and also advocated for individuals to have the option to invest in Bitcoin.
Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund, said on the Want to be the first in history. The vast majority of these bills will be based on the SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) model proposed by the Satoshi Action Fund. Previously, Porter stated that the 14th state in the United States is now ready to introduce “strategic Bitcoin reserve” legislation.
Calamos to launch Bitcoin ETF with downside protection on January 22
According to Crypto.news, Calamos Investments is launching a Bitcoin ETF with 100% downside protection. According to information released by the company, the ETF, called CBOJ, will debut on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on January 22. Debut, aiming to solve Bitcoin’s volatility issues while providing growth potential. According to reports, U.S. Treasury bonds are combined with options linked to the CBOE Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index to achieve this protection. This structure provides a regulated and transparent way to gain exposure to Bitcoin while minimizing risk.
Anti-crypto Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Michael Barr resigns
According to Beincrypto, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman of supervision, announced today that he will resign from this position. Barr will no longer serve as the third-ranking official on the Fed's Board of Governors, but he intends to remain at the Fed until further notice. The industry generally believes that Barr is one of the key factors in the failure of U.S. banks to get involved in cryptocurrency and related services. According to a recent press release, his resignation will be effective on February 28 or when his successor is confirmed. However, Barr will remain on the Fed's board even if a new vice chair for supervision is found soon. His term was supposed to end naturally in 2032. However, this may be an important opportunity for cryptocurrency regulation. He claimed: "It is an honor to serve as Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Controversy over this position threatens to distract from our mission. In the current environment, I believe it is better to serve the American people from the position of Governor Effective.” In 2023, Barr led a crackdown on stablecoins and expressed a desire to “keep cryptocurrencies out of the banking industry.”
Gemini agrees to pay $5 million to end CFTC lawsuit
Gemini Trust Co., the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, agreed to pay $5 million to end a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Bloomberg reported. The lawsuit claims that Gemini misled derivatives regulators when it attempted to launch the first U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures contract. The settlement, disclosed in documents signed by both sides on Monday, avoids a trial that was scheduled to begin on January 21, the day after Trump was inaugurated for a second term as U.S. president. Gemini neither admitted nor denied liability in this case. In 2022, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Gemini in Manhattan federal court, alleging that the exchange "made false and misleading statements about how to prevent Bitcoin price manipulation." U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein approved the settlement on Monday last year. In November, Judge Hellerstein rejected Gemini's request, ruling that the jury must determine whether 32 statements made by Gemini executives to regulators were misleading. Gemini is still facing a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accuses the exchange and cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital of illegally raising billions of dollars in crypto from investors through the so-called Gemini Earn scheme. Assets. In February, Gemini agreed to return at least $1.1 billion to customers as part of a separate settlement with New York regulators.
AI
Swarms broke through $0.6, rising 76.1% in 24 hours
According to GMGN.AI data, Solana ecological AI project Swarms exceeded US$0.6, rose 76.1% in 24 hours, and continued to hit a record high. It is now quoted at US$0.6008457, and its market value exceeds US$600 million.
MAX broke through $0.11, rising 125.3% in 24 hours
According to data from GMGN.AI, Solana ecological AI Meme project MAX exceeded US$0.11, continuing to hit a record high, rising 125.3% in 24 hours. It is now quoted at US$0.1111, with a maximum price of US$0.116, and its market value has exceeded US$100 million.
NVIDIA announces NVIDIA Cosmos, the “world foundation model”
According to the Financial Associated Press, NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang announced the launch of NVIDIA Cosmos, a basic model designed to understand the real world. The Cosmos model can accept text, image, or video cues and generate virtual world states as video outputs tailored to the unique needs of autonomous driving and robotics applications. Developers can leverage Cosmos to generate AI feedback for reinforcement learning to improve policy models and test performance in different scenarios. Earlier today, it was reported that Nvidia launched a consumer-grade GPU based on the Blackwell architecture, opening a new world of AI computer graphics.
According to financial reports, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) today released the most advanced consumer GPU for gamers, creators and developers - GeForce RTX(TM) 50 series desktop and laptop GPUs. Powered by NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture, fifth-generation Tensor Cores, and fourth-generation RT Cores, the GeForce RTX 50 Series delivers breakthroughs in AI-driven rendering, including neural shaders, digital human technology, geometry, and lighting. The GeForce RTX 5090 GPU is the fastest GeForce RTX GPU to date, with 92 billion transistors delivering more than 3,352 trillion AI operations per second (TOPS) of computing power. Blackwell architectural innovation and DLSS 4 mean the GeForce RTX 5090 GPU delivers up to 2x the performance of the GeForce RTX 4090 GPU.
Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture, ReadyGamer
According to official news, Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture called "ReadyGamer" to focus on the integration of AI and games.
Financing/Acquisition
FTX EU, the bankrupt European arm of FTX, has been acquired by Backpack Exchange for $32.7 million. FTX EU previously held a MiFID II license issued by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). Backpack Exchange CEO Armani Ferrante said that the company plans to become the only regulated perpetual contract provider in Europe and has submitted a MiCA notification and is expected to go online in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, Backpack plans to launch a full set of crypto derivatives services, prioritize the launch of regulated perpetual futures products, and promises to give priority to returning FTX EU customer funds. Currently, many exchanges, including Coinbase and Bitstamp, have obtained MiFID II licenses. It is reported that the Backpack founding team has previously participated in the construction of the Solana ecosystem and successfully launched wallet and NFT businesses. Last year, it completed US$17 million in financing.
SUI ecological project Wave completed seed round financing, led by KuCoin Labs
The SUI ecological project Wave officially announced that its seed round of financing completed in November 2024 was led by KuCoin Labs, and other investors include the SUI Foundation, Web3Port Foundation and Comma3 Ventures. The amount of financing was not disclosed. The Wave team said that the project will begin a new phase and more innovations are coming. Wave currently has more than 4 million on-chain users, with over 600,000 monthly active users. Its products include Wave Trading, a trading tool based on Telegram, Wave Pad, an incubation platform that supports high-quality early projects in the SUI ecosystem, and DeFi and GameFi related products, such as Wave Staking and Lucky Wheel, providing users with a comprehensive platform for trading, airdrops, investments, and games. A one-stop experience.
Project news
Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage
Binance announced that it will launch three new USDT perpetual contracts, including COOKIE/USDT, ALCH/USDT and SWARMS/USDT, supporting up to 75x leverage. The launch times are 19:30, 19:45 and 20:15 on January 7, Beijing time.
Upbit will support Sonic SVM (SONIC) Korean won, BTC and USDT trading
Upbit announced that it will add KRW, BTC and USDT trading support for the digital asset SONIC (Sonic SVM). SONIC is based on the Solana network. Deposit support is planned to start at 20:00 local time on January 7, and the transaction support time will be announced separately.
Binance Alpha adds HAT, AIXCB and NEUR
According to the official page, Binance Alpha announced a new batch of project lists, including HAT, AIXCB and NEUR. The following is a brief introduction to the project: HAT: Top Hat is an artificial intelligence agent distribution platform on the Solana chain; AIXCB: aixCB Capital is a community-supported, artificial intelligence-driven venture capital project; NEUR: Neur is an open source full-stack application that will The LLM model and blockchain technology are integrated.
According to Cointelegraph, holders of Reddit Collectible Avatars (RCA) NFT expressed concerns about the future prospects of the product after learning that the project leader had confirmed to leave the social media company. "My journey at Reddit has come to an end," Bianca Wyler, director of Reddit's collectible avatar project, said on LinkedIn. "While I'm sad about this transition, I feel incredibly proud of what I've accomplished during that time. Proud." Some Reddit users noticed that Wyler's recent comments on her Reddit account had been deleted, raising further concerns that her seemingly sudden departure could be a harbinger of upcoming changes to the social platform's avatar program. . Wyler said in an interview that her departure reflects a natural shift at social media companies as they explore new technologies and adjust priorities. Although unsure about the direction of the RCA project, she believes Reddit will continue to benefit the community. Launched in July 2022, RCA is billed as a limited-edition artwork created in collaboration with independent creators. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the total number of holders of these NFTs currently exceeds 33.5 million. Sales of these NFTs have failed to keep up since peaking in late 2022, with monthly secondary market trading volumes hovering around $100,000 in the last three months of 2024, while trading volumes have also declined since peaking in late 2022. dropped.
Solana Mobile's second phone, Solana Seeker, is expected to launch in mid-2025
According to Blockworks, Solana Seeker, the second phone developed by Solana Mobile, is expected to be launched in mid-2025. As of October last year, Solana Mobile general manager Emmett Hollyer said Seeker, which sells for $500, had received 145,000 pre-orders.
Solana Foundation proposes to add a new hash type to improve account status efficiency and security
The Solana Foundation launched the SIMD-0215 proposal, which aims to scale Solana’s infrastructure to billions of user accounts. This proposal adds a new hash, the "Accounts Lattice Hash". According to reports, "Accounts Lattice Hash" uses homomorphic hashing to maintain the hash of the entire account status, which is both fast and safe, enabling each block to contain the hash of all accounts, not just the area. Accounts changed in block, and Epoch Accounts Hash deleted.
Babylon will launch the second phase of the test network on January 8
According to official news, the Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon announced that it will launch the second phase of the test network on January 8. The second phase of block production will start at 9 a.m. UTC time (17:00 Beijing time on January 8), and the equity pledge network application will be launched at 10 a.m. UTC time (18:00 Beijing time on January 8) . This phase will focus on testing the migration registration of the Signet Bitcoin pledge in the first phase, as well as the interaction with various protocol participants, including Bitcoin pledgers, final confirmation providers, verifiers, Liquid pledge protocols, etc. The test network supports permissionless smart contract deployment, with a single pledge limit of 0.0005-350 Signet BTC and an unbinding period of approximately 16-17 hours (100 Bitcoin blocks). The project is open to testing globally, but participation is limited to users in the United States, Canada, Australia and mainland China.
point of view
Crypto market research organization Santiment published an article on the X platform stating that since Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States two months ago, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has remained at a high level. But today, we observed Bitcoin exhibiting a surge relative to the S&P 500 (based on its regular range). For much of the past three years, cryptocurrencies’ image in the minds of most community members has gradually shifted to that of “highly leveraged tech stocks.” However, there are signs in early 2025 that Bitcoin may be gradually breaking away from the normal fluctuation trajectory of global stock markets. Historically, cryptocurrency markets tend to thrive and experience their most significant bull runs during periods when there is little or no correlation with the stock market. If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can post strong gains in January independent of the S&P 500, it would be a strong signal that new all-time highs are more likely.
Ripple CEO: The company’s original $11 billion valuation is “seriously outdated”
According to Coingape, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company’s original $11 billion valuation is “seriously outdated” as the price of XRP increases and demand for Ripple’s blockchain solutions grows. In the interview, he mentioned that the value of XRP held by Ripple has exceeded US$100 billion, becoming the key to reshaping the company's valuation prospects. Ripple was last valued at $11 billion in early 2024, when the company bought back $300 million worth of stock. Garlinghouse pointed out that compared to cryptocurrency-related companies such as MicroStrategy, Ripple trades at a much lower price than its net asset value in private markets. He said: "The value of our XRP holdings has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, while MicroStrategy's trading price is 3 times its net asset value, and Ripple has always been undervalued." In the interview, Garlinghouse reiterated that the company is focused on the B2B field, Including banks, payment providers and enterprises, Ripple provides solutions such as custody and cross-border payments in these areas. Garlinghouse also emphasized that its stablecoin RLUSD will leverage XRP rather than replace it, increasing its liquidity and opening up more possibilities for leveraging Ripple’s decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM) capabilities. Ripple's growth has also benefited from changes in the legal environment. Garlinghouse believes that the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and the clarity of new government regulations have brought a "turning point" for Ripple. "The wind has changed, and although 95% of customers are outside the United States, I expect U.S. interest to return in the coming months," he said.
Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in his latest blog post why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction. The article stated that in the third quarter of 2022, when the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility reached its peak, Bitcoin hit bottom; Yellen adjusted the bond strategy and withdrew more than 2 trillion US dollars in RRP, injecting liquidity into the market and promoting cryptocurrencies and stocks. Big rise. In the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether U.S. dollar liquidity can offset the impact of slow implementation of Trump’s policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure would be a safe option. First, the article discusses the Federal Reserve, which is a secondary consideration in this analysis. The article then discusses how the U.S. Treasury Department will respond to the debt ceiling. Focus on how the Treasury responds to the debt ceiling. If politicians hesitate, the Treasury may inject liquidity from the General Account (TGA) to create a positive atmosphere for cryptocurrencies. The Fed's quantitative tightening policy continues, but the scale of RRP has almost cleared, and the RRP interest rate has been lowered to make it less attractive. This move is aimed at boosting demand for U.S. debt and paving the way for the discontinuation of QT and other policies. Yellen revealed that the Treasury Department expects to take "extraordinary measures" to raise funds in mid-January. When politicians will agree to raise the debt ceiling will test Trump's support. It is expected that the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance will be exhausted from May to June, and the market may react in advance. As of the end of the first quarter, total Fed and Treasury dollar liquidity is expected to be $612 billion. As the crisis of default and shutdown approaches, an agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling and the Treasury resumes borrowing and replenishes the TGA, resulting in reduced liquidity. After the tax deadline on April 15, the government's financial situation will improve and liquidity will also decrease. If TGA balances dominate cryptocurrency prices, the market may hit a high at the end of the first quarter and then fall back. Yellen lowered that rate in order to issue short-term Treasury bills, frustrating Powell's strategy of tightening financial conditions to combat inflation. Although the Trump team may perform poorly on cryptocurrency and corporate legislation, a positive USD liquidity environment may offset this impact. Hayes said: “Investors are advised to sell in the late first quarter and wait for liquidity conditions to improve in the third quarter. As chief investment officer of Maelstrom, it is recommended that risk takers switch to aggressive mode and get involved in the decentralized science (DeSci) altcoin space. Maelstrom has purchased BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, NEURON, and if things go well, I will cut my baseline position in March.”
important data
NFT project Mad Lads rose 24% in a short time, and the floor price is now at 84.2 SOL
Perhaps affected by "Backpack Exchange's acquisition of FTX EU for US$32.7 million", the NFT project Mad Lads rose 24% in a short period of time, and the floor price is now quoted at 84.2 SOL. Earlier today, it was reported that Backpack Exchange acquired FTX EU for US$32.7 million and planned to promote regulated crypto derivatives in Europe.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, one trader’s winning rate in the past 30 days was as high as 89.07%. The trader discovered $ai16z early on October 25, 2024, and purchased 9.16 million $ai16z for only 18 $SOL (approximately $3,000). Currently, 1.32 million coins have been sold, with a profit of US$1.71 million, and 7.85 million coins (valued at US$17.26 million) are still held, with a total profit of US$19 million, and a return rate of up to 6,400 times. In addition, he also invested US$12,200 to purchase 17.31 million $Fartcoin when the market value was only US$83,000. He has sold 6.71 million US dollars and made a profit of US$5.41 million. He currently holds 10.6 million US dollars (valued at US$12.83 million), with a total of Profit exceeded $18 million, a return of 1,490 times. The trader also purchased a variety of low-cap tokens over the past 24 hours, including $eef, $DEAL, $GG, $SXBT, $FARTOLOGY, and $TBOO. His latest large position is $OPAIUM, with an investment of 400 $SOL (approximately $86,000).
According to SoSoValue data, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday (January 6, EST) was US$987 million. Yesterday, the Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day net inflow of US$73.7931 million, and the current historical net outflow of GBTC is US$21.446 billion. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC has a single-day net inflow of US$75.2304 million. The current total historical net inflow of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC is US$924 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow yesterday was Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net inflow of US$370 million. The current total historical net inflow of FBTC reaches US$12.485 billion. Followed by BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of US$209 million. The current total historical net inflow of IBIT has reached US$37.378 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is US$116.667 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a proportion of the total market value of Bitcoin) reaches 5.77%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$36.896 billion.
“The first user on the SWARMS & ZEILGO list” spent 203.92 SOL to buy PRISM last night
According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa’s monitoring, “SWARMS & ZEILGO No. 1 User” spent 203.92 SOL to buy the new token PRISM last night, which has now become its fifth-ranked asset; its total assets are as high as US$33.43 million, of which SWARM’s single currency floating profit was US$27.07 million. His PRISM cost is 0.007413 US dollars (current price 0.008265 US dollars), which has been transferred from the small transaction address EHB8Q...FjNay to the first address on the list. As of now, its position status is as follows: SWARMS: TOP1 position address, with a floating profit of US$27.07 million; MCS: TOP3 position address; ZAILGO: TOP1 position address, one position higher in the position ranking; SPORES: TOP2 position address; PRISM: TOP11 position address.
According to Spot On Chain monitoring, in the past 14 hours, two whales/institutions transferred 16.38 million ENA (USD 19.4 million) to CEX. The multi-signature address starting with 0xc69 deposited 10 million ENA ($11.9 million) into Bybit 13 hours ago and still holds 124.7 million ENA (approximately $144 million), most of which are pledged. This multisig address frequently sells ENA before price drops and appears to share the same Bybit deposit address as Arthur Hayes (BitMEX founder). 6 hours ago, Galaxy Digital deposited 6.38 million ENA ($7.49 million) to Binance at $1.173. They withdrew 10.9 million ENA from Binance on December 5, 2024 at a price of $0.925, and now still hold 4.45 million ENA ($5.17 million), with an estimated total profit of $2.64 million (+26%).
jinse