The cryptocurrency market will usher in new changes soon after Trump takes office

BTC and the cryptocurrency market are generally bullish. The era of AI+MEME craze has arrived. Trump officially comes to power on January 20, which deserves special attention.

Crypto Market Summary

1. The BTC and cryptocurrency markets are generally bullish, but currently the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. We need to wait for new positive developments. Trump’s official coming to power on January 20 deserves special attention.

2. Current data shows that the altcoin season has not yet officially arrived, and the current trend is still concentrated on BTC. As of December 31, BTC has increased by 106% this year, ETH has increased by 60.1%, and SOL has increased by 84.6%.

3. The future market of AI+Meme is very broad, and there is a high probability that it will start with Meme and cover the entire Web3 market with AI through the issuance of AI Agent+Token.

4. The RWA track is also worthy of attention. Both Binance and Coinbase have expressed their optimistic views on RWA.

1. Market Overview

1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index

The FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a DePIN high-quality portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, which selects the 24 most representative DePIN projects. Compared with the last report, the Index continued to correct this time, falling from the previous 50.26 to 44.48, a decrease of 11.5%. The reason is that the main funds in the market are further leaving the market from cryptocurrencies. The decline of BTC has not brought about the arrival of the altcoin season. Most of the funds in the market choose to leave the market directly or switch to stablecoins to wait and see.

1.2 Encrypted market data

1.2.1 Encrypted data indicators

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization:

The current total market value of cryptocurrencies is 3.28 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 9.8% compared to US$3.64 trillion in the first half of December. This is mainly due to the fact that BTC experienced its largest decline since October 25. BTC has continued to fall from its all-time high of $108,000, with a single-week decline of nearly 15%. After that, although BTC rebounded slightly, the bulls did not organize an effective counterattack to bring the price back to $100,000, which instead caused a further decline in market sentiment.

The BTC index has rebounded slightly.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) measures the proportion of Bitcoin’s market capitalization in the entire cryptocurrency market and is an important indicator for assessing market sentiment and investor preferences. When BTC.D rises, it usually means that investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin, possibly out of concerns about market risks and seeking more stable investment targets. Conversely, a decline in BTC.D could indicate increased investor interest in other crypto assets (altcoins), signaling higher risk appetite.

The Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Index has experienced some volatility over the past 15 days. As of December 30, 2024, Bitcoin’s dominance was approximately 56.6%, a slight increase from 56% at the beginning of the month.

The Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominated season. When the index is in the range of 0-50, the smaller the number, the more it is considered the BTC season. When the index is in the range of 50-100, the larger the number, the greater the possibility of the arrival of the altcoin season.

The current Altcoin Season Index is 47, the previous value was 46;

The highest point of the year was 97 on November 4. After that, BTC entered a rapid upward channel, rising rapidly from $67,000;

The lowest point of the year was 13 on September 3, which was the V-bottom of BTC’s year-round rise and fall trend. After that, BTC began to enter the rising channel.

1.2.2 ETF index

BTC ETF:

Every year is a historic year for cryptocurrency. In 2024, approximately US$40 billion has been invested in the cryptocurrency field since January when the US Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved for listing; industry investment reached US$13.7 billion, an increase of 28% from US$10.7 billion in 2023, but it is still the same as in 2022. There is a big gap between the US$33.3 billion in 2021 and the US$29 billion in 2021.

As of 2024.12.30. The current total market value of the BTC ETF market is US$108.911 billion, with a total transaction volume of US$3.37 billion. Among them, in the past 7 days, BTC ETF had a net outflow of US$388 million;

Among them, BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): On December 19, IBIT experienced a record single-day net outflow, amounting to US$188.7 million;

Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC): During the same period, FBTC had net outflows of approximately $83.16 million;

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): On December 19, GBTC had an outflow of approximately US$208.6 million;

ETH ETF:

As of December 30, 2024, the overall net inflow of ETH ETF was US$432 million. in:

BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): On December 5, ETHA recorded its largest single-day inflow, amounting to $131 million;

Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW): On the same day, ETHW recorded an inflow of approximately US$16.98 million;

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH): On the same day, ETH recorded an inflow of approximately US$12.71 million;

VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV): On the same day, ETHV recorded an inflow of approximately $6.02 million.

1.3 Judgment of the market based on CPI and other data and market reaction

U.S. consumer confidence index remains unchanged from previous reading

The initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States in December was 74, which was equal to the previous value and expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index in December was 104.7, which was significantly lower than the expected 113 and the previous value of 111.7. Looking at the two key factors affecting interest rates, the initial one-year inflation rate in the United States in December is expected to be 2.8%, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.90%; as of December 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the week was 219,000. Lower than expected 224,000 and the previous value of 220,000. According to the hawkish interest rate cut of 25BP at the Federal Reserve's November interest rate meeting, Hammack voted in favor of not cutting interest rates; and Powell said that it is at or near the stage of slowing down interest rates. The expectations for the future U.S. economy are: an increase in economic prospects and interest rate expectations, and an interest rate cut expectation next year is halved; most officials believe that inflation risks tend to be upward.

Global inflation falls, U.S. CPI drops to 2.5%

To summarize the global economy by the end of 2024: growth is generally stable, inflation has fallen, and policies have been implemented. The IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.5% in 2024. The manufacturing industry (PMI average in the first half of the year is 50.5%) and the service industry (the average in the second half of the year is 53.3%) will relay on the economic recovery in 2024. Inflation has fallen rapidly, led by the United States and Europe. The U.S. CPI has dropped to about 2.5%, and the Eurozone HICO has dropped to about 2%. In terms of policy, in order to deal with the previous high inflation, most central banks around the world have successively turned to easing. With the exception of Japan, the United States, Europe, and China have all begun active interest rate reduction cycles.

1.4 Macroscopic key data nodes

Macro data nodes to watch next week include:

1. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on January 14, 2025;

2. U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) released on January 15, 2025.

In addition, the U.S. President will officially hand over on January 20, and Trump will officially become the President of the United States, which may have a greater impact on the trends of BTC and cryptocurrencies.

2. Hot market news

The top three most popular narratives according to Coingecko statistics are Meme, AI, and RWA. Among them, Meme currency has become the absolute focus of the market, accounting for 30.67% of investors’ attention. The recovery and continued development of each track also shows the market’s potential. Diversity and energy.

2.1 Industry hot spots

AI+Meme: ai16z leading representative

The ecological consensus broke out in an all-round way, and ai16z drove the AI ​​concept to a general rise. On the last day of 2024, ai16z continues to lead the AI ​​track to continuously break through the market value ceiling. After Shaw announced his plan to turn ai16z into Layer 1, ai16z rose 7% within 24 hours, and its current market value has reached US$1.9 billion. In addition to ai16z itself, multiple concept coins surrounding ai16z are also skyrocketing. The current total market value of the AI ​​+ AI Meme sector is as high as 56.6 billion US dollars.

Among them, AI Meme rose by 26.52% and AI rose by 3.51%.

The emergence of GOAT became the first Meme generated by AI dialogue on the market. This was also the first time that AI achieved its goals through cryptocurrency and the Internet and learned from human behavior. Only meme coins can carry such a highly experimental project. At the same time, similar conceptual currencies have sprung up, but most of their functions are limited to automatic tweeting, replying, etc., with no practical application. Such as Fartcoin, Shoggoth, etc. This type of Meme is the early form of AI+Meme.

After that, the scenarios of AI Agent began to extend from simple interactions on social media to more valuable scenarios. This includes content production such as music videos, as well as investment analysis, fund management and other services that are more suitable for currency users. From this stage, AI Agent is separated from meme coins, thus forming a new track.

From a product level, AI Agent may serve more as a simple tool, such as giving investment advice and generating reports. However, fund management requires higher-level capabilities, including strategy design, dynamic adjustment and market forecasting, which marks that AI Agent is not just a tool, but begins to participate in the process of value creation.

ai16z has become the most typical representative. After Shaw, the founder of ai16z's underlying logic Eliza, announced plans to make ai16z into Layer 1, ai16z rose 37% in 24 hours, and its current market value has reached US$1.9 billion. As an AI-driven on-chain fund, ai16z has also derived a sub-sector (ai16z sector), such as:

Degenai: An AI Agent created by imitating the well-known trader DegenSpartan. It is also a member of ai16z DAO and has risen 151% in the past 7 days;

Eliza: Same name as Eliza, the framework behind ai16z. It has a very high reputation in the current field of AI Agent, with an increase of 233% in the past 7 days;

FMG believes that after AI Agent begins to implement more practical functions and has practical and effective application scenarios to interpret the logic of price support, AI Meme will usher in a new round of "breaking the circle", such as the interoperability of multi-chain ecology , and the combination with traditional tracks DeFi and DePIN. Ultimately, a real consumer-grade application will be formed that is driven by AI and uses AI Agent to express scenarios.

RWA:

The tokenized assets of the RWA market will exceed US$100 billion in 2024, an increase of nearly three times compared with 2023.

Binance Labs made it clear in its “Looking to 2025” released on December 31 that Binance Labs’ main areas of focus are crypto/blockchain, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, and it is also excited to see innovation emerging at the intersection of these three areas. . Existing narratives such as DeSci, RWA/stablecoins, and AI agents should continue to perform well with strong momentum.

In addition, Coinbase also stated in its latest outlook: 1. Stable coins have just started; 2. RWA tokenization is expected to achieve substantial growth; 3. Crypto ETFs have forever changed the supply and demand dynamics of cryptocurrency; 4. DeFi renaissance will promote its Entering a new era; 5. Regulation will eventually turn from headwinds to tailwinds.

We have reason to believe that in 2025, the RWA track will receive further attention. This is because Web3 has become increasingly integrated with the real world, and projects in the chain world (such as Uniswap, AAVE) are gradually becoming the interests of traditional big players. Expression, and there will also be more traditional world players trying to obtain arbitrage through Web2 and Web3 investments.

It is expected that the global RWA track market size will exceed US$500 billion in 2025. Mainstream asset types will include :

Treasury bonds: Attracting more institutional investors will dominate the RWA market.

Real Estate: Tokenization of commercial and residential real estate will become more popular, providing more investment opportunities.

Commodities: Commodities such as gold and oil will achieve higher liquidity through tokenization.

At the same time, more simple and friendly platforms will be launched to enable retail investors to easily participate in tokenized asset transactions, thus promoting the penetration and popularity of the track.

In addition, major economies such as the United States, the European Union, and China are expected to introduce a clearer regulatory framework in the RWA field. For example, the United States will make it clear that national debt will be tokenized, and countries such as China and Singapore will continue to promote the integration of RWA with the traditional financial system and attract innovative projects through regulatory sandboxes.

We predict that in 2025, the RWA track will gradually enter the mature stage from the early experimental stage and become one of the core areas of blockchain technology application.

2.2 Discovery of potential projects

2.2.1 AIPool: A fully AI-driven token issuance platform based on TEE environment

About AIPool:

AIPool is an AI Agent autonomous currency issuance project built based on the Eliza framework by a user named @Skely (an active member of ai6z DAO). In this project, users inject funds into the AI ​​Agent's address, and the AI ​​Agent will decide and issue tokens independently. Even the naming of the tokens will be decided by the AI ​​independently.

AIPool working mechanism:

AIPool is similar to Pump.fun in terms of token issuance process, but AIPool uses TEE technology and AI to independently generate private keys and keep private keys independently. Any signature can only be executed by AI in the TEE environment, so it can avoid bookmakers from the source. The phenomenon of donations running away; secondly, AIPool uses TEE technology and the Phala contract to realize the interaction between the internal chain and the external chain in the TEE environment and realize offline calculation. Fully driven by AI, AIPool will add human influence to the project operation process and set up a DAO governance system to allow AI and people to jointly manage the development of the project.

AIPool release performance:

AIPool issued its first AI Agent token METAV on the same day. Its market value rose to US$96 million within 3 hours of the opening. It is currently experiencing a large-scale decline. The current price is 0.052 and the market value is about US$52 million.

The issuance mechanism of AIPool is currently arousing heated discussions. AIPool still exposes many problems in the fundraising and issuance of the METAV project. For example, there is no clear isolation of the fundraising cycle. After the fundraising is completed, community users can still transfer coins to the AI ​​address. Many users who donated during the fundraising period did not receive tokens.

Outlook: As a new thing, we should be more tolerant. AIPool officials also showed a positive attitude in facing the problem. The ai16z developer community focEliza updated the verifiable log of the TEE AI agent, allowing users to directly view and verify the operation of the AI ​​Agent.

2.2.2 Spore.fun: a token-reproducible issuance platform powered by Phala and ai16z

About Spore.fun:

Spore.fun is a Pump.fun-like product that uses the Eliza framework and combines TEE technology. It is essentially an AI Meme distribution platform.

Spore.fun working mechanism:

The biggest feature of the Spore.fun platform is that it has built an ecological environment composed of AI Agents. Different Agents can incubate and breed new Agents and issue tokens. According to the operating mechanism of Spore.fun, each AI Agent can be launched from Pump.fun. Once the market value reaches 500,000 US dollars and enters the Raydium fund pool, it will be eligible for "reproduction". However, to ensure its autonomous operation, the agent needs to lease a TEE server powered by Phala Network, ensuring its operations are conducted under independent and controlled conditions.

Spore.fun Innovations:

In the early days of the release of Spore.fun, the platform will airdrop two platform tokens to SPORE holders, namely adam and eve. These two tokens are the paternal and maternal AI roles of the Spore.fun platform.

Adam and Eva are two AI Agents bred by the platform itself. The two will also continue to hatch their own offspring Agents. Adam and Eve respectively represent two different ideas for issuing tokens.

Adam Line: Pure Pump.fun mode, compete for more funds through brutal PvP competition.

Eve line: After the community votes to select the project, tokens will be issued using the AIPool model.

In essence, Spore.fun is equivalent to automating the process of new plates emerging on Pump.fun, achieving unlimited deposits through unlimited splits, and survival of the fittest.

In addition, new tokens on the Spore platform will continuously refresh their smart contracts before they are officially launched. Users can only determine the name of the token that will be launched soon, but cannot lock the corresponding smart contract address (in fact, the smart contract is constantly refreshed through AI Behavior, AI Agent can completely avoid the front-running behavior of all users. If a user has bought the current address, the AI ​​will automatically change the new contract address).

3. Regulatory environment

3.1 Ripple’s chief legal officer outlines 6 principles to the US SEC, urging it to adopt a prudent approach to encryption regulation

On January 1, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty outlined six key principles on New Year’s Eve to urge the U.S. SEC to adopt a prudent approach to crypto regulation:

The SEC only has jurisdiction over securities transactions; the sale of gold bars with contractual rights, ownership or interests in gold mines may be securities transactions; the sale of the same gold bar without post-sale rights or obligations is just an asset sale, and the SEC has no authority to regulate; SEC's jurisdiction Will not expand based on its selfish view of who “should” be disclosed; a token is in no way a security, although it can be the subject of a securities transaction; a token can “evolve” from a security to a non-security The concept is a fictitious fallacy with no legal basis.

3.2 US Powell: The Federal Reserve does not plan to include BTC on its balance sheet

On December 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told a press conference after the interest rate meeting that the Federal Reserve did not intend to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet. Powell said: “We are not allowed to own Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act regulates what the Fed can own, and the Fed is not seeking to change it. This is an issue that Congress should consider, but the Fed does not want to change the law. "

On the 18th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that the Bitcoin Policy Institute in the United States drafted an executive order on the Bitcoin strategic reserve for President Trump.

3.3 German regulator orders Worldcoin to delete human eyeball biometric data

German regulator the Bavarian State Data Protection Supervisory Office ordered Worldcoin’s human verification project to delete biometric data collected through eye scans. Worldcoin said it had changed its processes and the German regulator’s findings “largely” related to “outdated operations and technology that have been replaced by 2024.”

In response, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that steps have been taken over the past few months to alleviate regulators’ concerns, including moving to a system where Worldcoin no longer stores biometric data. In order to comply with the requirements of the GDPR, the iris codes used to verify individual World IDs will no longer be stored and previously collected iris codes will be voluntarily deleted, ensuring that no personal data used to operate World IDs is retained.

The data in this article comes from: Coinglass , Rootdata, Coinmarketmap , X