Trading moment: OM flash crash caused nearly 5.5 billion market value to evaporate, and BTC whales behaviour is highly similar to the accumulation period from August to September last year
Reprinted from panewslab
04/15/2025·10D
1. Market Observation
Keywords: OM, ETH, BTC
RWA sector project MANTRA (OM) plummeted this morning, and the price fell from US$6.35 to US$0.38 in a short period of time, causing the market value to evaporate by more than US$5.5 billion. Faced with market panic, the MANTRA team quickly issued a statement, attributed the decline to "irrational liquidation" and emphasized that it had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the project. However, in-depth observations have found that OM has experienced many violent increases since November last year and has long been labeled as "strong country demon coin" in the community. Community analysis revealed that MANTRA has many structural problems, including high control of the disk, repeated modification of airdrop rules, and the team's actual control of 90% of the supply. These factors lead to extremely low real circulation, making the price very easy to manipulate, and ultimately triggering this collapse. In addition, the market value of $RFC on Solana's chain exceeded US$100 million, becoming the only Meme currency that has exceeded 100 million recently. At the same time, there have also appeared in the market such as farcoin's spoof derivative currency, $DB, and the Meme currency $MUTUMBO, which attracted attention due to the call by Ansen.
Despite intensified global market volatility, BTC whale investors have not withdrawn from the market. According to CryptoQuant's data analysis, the current behavior pattern of BTC whale is highly similar to the accumulation stage during the sideways consolidation period from August to September last year, indicating that large funds are still strategically deploying. While the S&P volatility index has soared to its highest level since August last year, clearly showing that market uncertainty is rising, the Bitcoin to VIX ratio has touched long-term trendline support. Historical data show that whenever the Bitcoin/VIX ratio touches this trend line, it often marks a phased bottom of the Bitcoin price, and then a significant rebound will occur, which provides technical support for the current market. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes boldly predicts that if the current market trend continues, Bitcoin may enter a "only rise but not fall mode." Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, predicted that BTC prices may fluctuate between $80,000 and $85,000, and advised traders to pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and capital flows. It is worth noting that Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang recently went long BTC at a 40-fold leverage at the $77,000 price point, and doubled his Bitcoin holdings to $200 million, and has now achieved a profit of $6.8 million.
In the regulatory field, Tim Scott, chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, recently sent a positive signal that the cryptocurrency market structure bill is expected to officially become law by August 2025. He also pointed out that the Senate Banking Committee has advanced a comprehensive stablecoin regulation bill, the GENIUS Act, in March 2025, which shows that the U.S. legislature is making crypto policy a priority. In addition, Trump's tariff exemption policy announced over the weekend, especially exemptions for semiconductors and computer components, was interpreted by the market as a long-term benefit to the crypto ecosystem. These core components are crucial for cryptocurrency mining, blockchain infrastructure construction, and the development of crypto tools based on artificial intelligence. This policy indirectly boosted confidence in the crypto market and pushed the price of Bitcoin to quickly rebound to $85,900.
However, the global macroeconomic situation is facing major challenges, and many Wall Street giants have issued warnings. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the U.S. may have begun to enter a recession, pointing to intensified economic pressures and protectionist trade policies as the main drivers. Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he was preparing for the possible chaos in the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and expected the Fed to take action only if the market starts to panic. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department in January this year, Japan holds $1.079 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, ranking first, followed by China, holding $760.8 billion. Against the backdrop of intensifying global economic uncertainty, the gold market performed well, with spot gold prices breaking through the historical high to $3,245.45 per ounce. Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts: Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach $3,700 by the end of the year, and in extreme cases, it may even reach $4,500; UBS also forecasts to increase to $3,500, believing that Chinese investors have strong buying potential. With the reconstruction of the global order, central banks in various countries continue to grow for gold, which will provide long-term support for gold prices.
2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on April 14)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, GMGN, Tomars)
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Bitcoin: $84,781.34 (-9.58% during the year), daily spot trading volume $30.943 billion
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Ethereum: $1,637.32 (-50.96%), daily spot trading volume is $14.762 billion
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Corruption Index: 31 (Pandemic)
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Average GAS: BTC 1.06 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei
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Market share: BTC 62.6%, ETH 7.3%
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Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AERGO, BTC, COW, ORCA
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24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0969
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Sector rise and fall: RWA sector falls 44.62%, SocialFi sector falls 1.89%
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24-hour liquidation data: 137,857 people worldwide were exposed, with a total liquidation amount of US$334 million. Its BTC liquidation is US$87.13 million, ETH liquidation is US$56.75 million, and OM liquidation is US$71.55 million.
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BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper route ($83334.67), lower route ($81684.48)
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ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($1682.34), lower line ($1649.02)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.
3.ETF flow direction (EST as of April 11)
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Bitcoin ETF: -$1.03 million
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Ethereum ETF: -$29.2 million
4. Looking forward today
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Russian VK closed NFT platform on April 15 , and users need to migrate assets as soon as possible today
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Sei (SEI) will unlock 225 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $38.5 million
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Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 48.15 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $67.7 million
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Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $24.4 million
The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: RFC rose 87.42%, GODS rose 82.64%, DOGINME rose 33.16%, AERGO rose 26.29%, and ALCH rose 20.23%.
