Tron TRON Industry Weekly: Deterioration of fundamentals leads to BTC drop of US$76,600, Berachain Defi Ecosystem becomes a potential stock

1. Forecast

1. Macro-level summary and future forecast

The Trump administration announced details of the new tariff policy, triggering market panic and global trade tensions. The policy will push up the prices of imported goods, and many countries will launch countermeasures to intensify the turmoil in the situation. US stocks plummeted as a result, and investor confidence was frustrated. Forecasts show that if the trade dispute escalates, global supply chains will be under pressure, U.S. exports may be impacted, inflation risks will rise, and stock market volatility will intensify. This policy may reshape the trade pattern and cast a shadow on the economic outlook.

In the long run, if tensions cannot be eased through diplomatic means, this policy may reshape the global trade pattern, forcing countries to re-examine their economic strategies, and the prospects for international cooperation will become more confusing. Investors still need to be wary of whether subsequent changes in the tariff war occur.

2. Market changes and early warnings in the crypto industry

Although the cryptocurrency market showed a certain independence trend during the week and did not follow the plunge of US stocks, the cryptocurrency market continued to plummet again due to panic and insufficient liquidity over the weekend. Bitcoin was close to its previous low, and Ethereum fell below $1,600 at the lowest.

If the global economic environment shows signs of easing or regulatory policies release positive signals, the cryptocurrency market may have a chance to breathe, and may even gradually stabilize under the driving force of long-term funds. However, at the current stage, the fragility of market sentiment and the superposition of external pressures still make the future rebound path appear thorny. Investors need to pay close attention to the follow-up progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy as it may further affect global economic and market sentiment.

3. Industry and track hot spots

Stabble is a Solana native decentralized exchange (DEX). Stabble is unique in that it allows liquidity providers (LPs) to participate in internal and external arbitrage transactions and realizes automated liquidity provision through intelligent liquidity routing; led by OKX and followed by Gate, the native LST protocol Amnis Finance on Aptos, released the value of APT; the total financing exceeds US$20 million, and Fhenix, a platform that empowers the public chain protocol with full homomorphic encryption (FHE) technology.

2. Market hot tracks and weekly potential projects

1. Potential track performance

**1.1. A brief analysis of the native DEX Stabble characteristics built

on Solana and introducing innovative revenue mechanisms for LP**

Stabble is a Solana native decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the automatic market maker (AMM) conversion function originally introduced by the Uniswap protocol.

Stabble is unique in that it allows liquidity providers (LPs) to participate in internal and external arbitrage transactions and enables automated liquidity provision through intelligent liquidity routing . In addition, Stabble also supports Virtual Margin Liquidity , improving capital efficiency, allowing liquidity providers to take higher risks, while attracting risk aversion investors into the AMM protocol.

Stabble has similarities to the Balancer and Curve protocols. Similar to Balancer, it supports weighted pools and composable stable pools , but in contrast, Stabble's liquidity pool requires a significant reduction in liquidity (up to 97% reduction) while achieving trading volumes similar to competitors. This mechanism improves capital utilization and annualized returns (APY) for liquidity providers .

Detailed explanation of innovation

Intelligent liquidity routing (SLR)

Smart Liquidity Routing (SLR) is designed to help liquidity providers (LPs) automate, decentralize and optimize liquidity delivery. Users can deposit a single asset, which the system will automatically allocate to multiple liquidity pools, thus diversifying liquidity risks. SLR compares the expected returns (APY) of different liquidity pools and automatically imports funds into the pool with the highest returns while maintaining diversification of liquidity positions.

SLR enables users to automate long-term liquidity deposits as it continues to redistribute funds to liquidity pools that maximize profits. Through diversification, SLR reduces Divergence Loss by up to 80% and improves the risk-reward ratio of liquidity providers.

Intelligent liquidity arbitrage (SLA)

Among AMM decentralized exchanges (DEXs), arbitrage trading accounts for as high as 95%. Stabble research found that among similar DEXs, arbitrage trading consumes 18-34% of the total liquidity pool funds each year, resulting in divergent losses for liquidity providers. Arbitrageurs make profits by using price differences between exchanges or within exchanges, while promoting market price convergence.

Stabble has Arbitrage Pools, which can be compensated by liquidity providers in stabble to generate revenue from cross-exchange arbitrage robots within stabble. The robot is free of charge for internal transactions in Stabble and only executes transactions when the arbitrage spread exceeds the threshold set by the Stabble token holder.

In addition, Stabble replaced the Flash Loans mechanism designed by Balancer through internal arbitrage. Traditional flash loans support arbitrage between different pools within DEX, benefiting arbitrageurs, while stabble believes that arbitrage returns should be attributable to liquidity providers.

• Internal Arbitrage : Automatically distributes arbitrage returns to liquidity providers, not external arbitrage providers.
• External Arbitrage : Stabble supports off-chain arbitrage to ensure efficient liquidity between Stabble and other exchanges.

By combining internal and external arbitrage, Stabble allows liquidity providers to gain additional benefits while allowing traders to benefit from more accurate price matching and lower slippage. Stabble's arbitrage pool is especially suitable for large-value traders and liquidity providers, and plans to connect more decentralized and centralized exchanges to build a seamless and robust DeFi ecosystem.

Leverage liquidity and virtual leverage liquidity

Leverage Liquidity

Although arbitrage trading can provide additional compensation, there are risks in providing liquidity during periods of high market volatility. Generally speaking, liquidity providers need to have risk-neutral or risk-favorable attributes. Stabble has developed a leveraged liquidity mechanism, aiming to attract risk aversion liquidity providers and promote a wider liquidity supply in the DeFi ecosystem.

Stabble's leverage liquidity is 8,000 times higher than centralized liquidity (Uniswap V3).

• Traditional liquidity providers need to provide liquidity directly, while leveraged liquidity is introduced into lenders (Lenders) and leveraged liquidity providers (MLPs).
• Leveraged liquidity providers acquire capital from lenders and provide them to liquidity pools, while collateral is required.
• Earnings Model: Leveraged liquidity providers are required to pay interest to lenders, and their liquidity is limited to specific price ranges, similar to the centralized liquidity of Uniswap V3.

This mechanism improves the flexibility and capital efficiency provided by liquidity:

• Risk aversion liquidity providers can choose to be borrowers without the need to bear Divergence Loss.
• Risk-favorable liquidity providers can open leveraged liquidity positions to obtain higher returns while bearing liquidation risks.

Virtual Margin Liquidity

The main difference between virtual leveraged liquidity and traditional leveraged liquidity is the different roles of lenders:

• Leveraged liquidity: Lenders are third-party users who provide funds and earn interest.
• Virtual leveraged liquidity: The lender is the liquidity pool itself, that is, the liquidity pool as a counterparty, providing funds to the leveraged liquidity provider.

Advantages :

1. Divergence Risk : Virtual leveraged liquidity providers do not suffer divergence losses during their borrowing period.
2. Improve liquidity provider income : liquidity providers can receive higher transaction fee compensation.

Virtual leveraged liquidity expands Stabble's capital efficiency, allowing liquidity providers to gain more profits under safer conditions.

Comments

Overall, Stabble improves the returns of liquidity providers through intelligent liquidity management, arbitrage income feedback and leverage liquidity, while enhancing the overall capital efficiency of the DeFi ecosystem. However, it still needs to address challenges such as user understanding costs, arbitrage benefits sustainability, leverage liquidation risks and market competitive pressures to ensure long-term competitiveness and user growth.

**1.2. What if Amnis Finance, the native LST protocol on Aptos led by

OKX and followed by Gate, releases the value of APT?**

Amnis Finance – A pioneering liquidity staking agreement on Aptos.

As a fundamental component of the Aptos ecosystem, Amnis Finance has launched a secure, user-friendly and innovative liquidity staking protocol that enables users to easily maximize the benefits of APT tokens while unlocking their liquidity.

Brief description of the architecture

amAPT &stAPT

• amAPT

amAPT (Amnis Aptos Token) is a stablecoin that is loosely pegged to APT, ensuring that 1 amAPT always represents 1 APT and that the number of amAPTs in circulation matches the number of APTs in Amnis Finance. When the APT is deposited into Amnis Finance, the amAPT will be cast in equal quantities. ****

amAPT/APT liquidity pool
amAPT/APT liquidity pool provides users with a fast and convenient way to extract amAPT instantly without waiting for a standard 14-day billing cycle. With the 1:1 hook relationship between amAPT and APT and the deep liquidity on multiple DEXs, users can easily exchange between the two.

In response to the situation where the market demand for amAPT or APT fluctuates significantly, Amnis has established a reserve mechanism. When necessary, the agreement will repurchase amAPT from the market to stabilize the price. Any profit generated by this mechanism will be transferred directly to the Amnis treasury. In addition, Amnis has developed a powerful system equipped with monitoring alarms and AI algorithms to ensure the price of amAPT is stable and effectively managed.

• stAPT

stAPT (Amnis staked Aptos Token) is a vault used to accumulate staked proceeds from Amnis APT validator. Users can earn pledge income on amAPT at any time by depositing amAPT into stAPT vault and redeeming it as stAPT. Over time, the validator accumulates pledge proceeds, and the protocol mints the corresponding number of amAPTs and adds them to the vault, allowing users to redeem more amAPTs than they originally deposited.

The amAPT redemption rate of stAPT will increase over time, as pledge rewards will be continuously added to the vault. Holding stAPT means that the user holds a certain percentage share of amAPT assets in the vault, and the pledge reward will be distributed according to the proportion of stAPT holders. This mechanism is similar to other automatic compounding tokens such as Aave's aUSDC and Compound's cUSDC.

Smart contract architecture

Amnis Finance allows users to earn staking rewards on APT positions without locking funds or maintaining validator nodes. The Amnis protocol consists of multiple core components:

• Dual token model : amAPT and stAPT
• Save or extract APT to the whitelist validator node
• Performance score calculation (automatic portfolio management) for whitelist validator nodes to optimize rewards
• Rewards are issued every 2 hours (as online rewards are generated)
• Two extraction methods are provided: slow extraction and fast extraction

APT staking process

The user sends APT to the Amnis Finance smart contract and receives amAPT tokens in return. Users who hold amAPT can choose:

1. Directly participate in the Aptos DeFi ecosystem , such as providing amAPT-APT liquidity to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in exchange for annualized rate of return (APR). Holding amAPT will not receive a pledge reward.
2. Use Amnis for secondary stake in exchange for stAPT tokens. stAPT represents the staking rewards generated by all APT stakings in the Amnis protocol and can be used for holding, trading, or selling. The redemption rate of stAPT is based on the total amount of pledged APT and the accumulated pledge rewards.

All capital flows are automatically managed by smart contracts (modules), as shown in the figure. In addition, the design of the Amnis protocol also has the following characteristics:

• Priority to safety : The amount of minted amAPT (and the value of stAPT) is always equal to the number of APTs deposited. This is guaranteed by the formal verification of smart contracts, ensuring that amAPT always maintains 1:1 redemption of APT, and the value of stAPT continues to grow as the pledge reward accumulates, and there will be no loss of value .
• Prevent arbitrage : A slight deposit fee (always below 0.0008%) is charged when depositing an APT to mint an amAPT. This fee will be refunded at the end of the current 2-hour network cycle, ensuring that the depositor is not damaged. This mechanism prevents arbitrageurs from depositing APT at the last minute before the reward settlement to obtain rewards.
• Optimize performance through decentralization : Validator's performance scores are calculated and recorded on the chain each cycle. For factors such as comprehensive operating rates, total deposited amounts, each validator will receive an overall score to determine the allocation of funds for the next cycle. The system may automatically redistribute pledge funds based on the score to optimize returns.
• Composability : The Amnis protocol is designed for composability, allowing more DeFi protocols and other applications to be easily integrated and built on.

User Process

Comments

Advantages

Liquidity release : Through amAPT tokenized APT stake, users can use amAPT in the Aptos DeFi ecosystem without affecting their returns.
Automatic income optimization : stAPT represents APT pledge income, and its redemption rate automatically increases over time. Aave's aUSDC achieves automatic compounding.
Dual token model : amAPT (liquidity) + stAPT (return) separation, improve capital utilization, and users can freely choose strategies.
Quick Withdrawal : Provide an amAPT/APT liquidity pool, support instant redemption of amAPT, bypass the 14-day staking release period, and also have a repurchase stability mechanism to ensure the price of amAPT.
Decentralized optimization : adopt smart contracts to manage validator performance scores, dynamically adjust fund allocation based on yield rates, and improve overall returns.
Security : Through formal verification, ensure that the value of amAPT is always anchored to APT 1:1, and the value of stAPT only increases and does not decrease, and there is no risk of capital loss.
Composability : Open protocol design enables it to integrate with the DeFi ecosystem, such as DEX trading, lending, liquidity mining, etc.

Disadvantages

Relying on secondary market liquidity : amAPT's redemption depends on the depth of the liquidity pool. If liquidity is insufficient, it may lead to premium or discount trading.
Smart contract risk : Despite the security mechanism, you still have to face inherent risks of DeFi such as code vulnerabilities and hacker attacks.
Market arbitrage risk : Although there is a deposit fee mechanism to prevent short-term arbitrage, if the yield is too high, it may still attract arbitrageurs to affect the flow of funds.
Verifier Management Complexity : Amnis needs to continuously optimize the validator allocation algorithm to ensure optimal returns, but this depends on the effectiveness of the Aptos ecosystem and Amnis’ own strategies.
Fierce competition : Faced with competition from other liquid staking agreements in the Aptos ecosystem, we must continue to optimize the product and user experience.

1.3. **A brief analysis of Fhenix, a platform that provides total

financing of over US$20 million, empowers public chain protocols with full homomorphic encryption (FHE) technology**

Fhenix is ​​a blockchain platform that is the first to use all-homomorphic encryption (FHE) technology to implement confidential smart contracts on public blockchains such as Ethereum. As a cutting-edge encryption technology, FHE can directly calculate encrypted data without decryption, thus ensuring that transaction input and status are always encrypted throughout the process and improving privacy protection capabilities.

Fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) is a technology that can process data without decryption . Since data remains encrypted throughout transmission and processing, FHE makes end-to-end encryption suitable not only for digital communications, but also extends to all online operations!

This means that enterprises can provide various services without exposing user data, including the calculation and processing of user data, thereby ensuring user privacy. At the same time, users will not notice any functional differences when using these services, but the data is always private.

In the blockchain field, FHE makes private smart contracts possible, ensuring that on-chain data is always encrypted. This allows blockchain to remain decentralized and auditable without permissions, while preventing external observers from obtaining sensitive information, enabling true privacy protection.

Architecture analysis

Fhnix’s goal is not only to provide the first L2 solution based on FHE (full homomorphic encryption), but also to create a modular and flexible platform that can be easily tuned, expanded and optimized as traffic, use cases and requirements evolve.

The Fhenix protocol consists of multiple core components to jointly build a secure and private smart contract environment. The main components include:

• Core Chain : Built based on Arbitrum Nitro
• FheOS
• Warp-Drive

These components are combined with a layered architecture to provide a modular design, allowing them to have high flexibility and adapt to different application scenarios and future development needs.

Core Chain

The core blockchain is the basic layer of the Fhenix protocol and is built on Arbitrum Nitro. Arbitrum Nitro is an Ethereum Layer 2 expansion solution, which provides a scalable and secure operation environment for smart contracts through the combination of Fraud Proofs and Optimistic Rollups.

The main responsibilities of the core blockchain include:

• Processing transactions
• Execute smart contracts
• Maintain blockchain status

FheOS

FheOS is the core of the Fhenix protocol and is specifically responsible for fully homomorphic encryption (FHE)-related operations. Its goal is to become a modular and scalable component that can be seamlessly integrated into the basic blockchain and provide FHE support for smart contracts.

FheOS contains:

• FHE precompiled functions (Precompiles)
• Solidity-related functions
• Ciphertext Management, used for the interaction of the FHE layer of smart contracts

Warp-Drive

Warp-Drive is responsible for managing FHE keys and performing FHE calculations, and its core components include:

• Key Management
• FHE operation interface
• Encryption/decryption function

Warp-Drive, as a standalone component, brings the advantages of separation of responsibilities:

• The blockchain itself does not need to process FHE calculations directly, nor does it need to rely on specific functions.
• Supports a variety of different FHE solutions, developers can choose the appropriate encryption method according to their needs.

Warp-Drive is composed of multiple subcomponents and works collaboratively through shared interfaces to ensure ease of use and scalability.

Comments

Advantages

True Web3 privacy protection : data is encrypted throughout the process, and there is no clear text storage on the chain, suitable for financial, medical, identity management and other scenarios.
Strong composability : The modular design is easy to integrate and can be seamlessly combined with existing DeFi, DAO, and NFT applications.
High scalability : Relying on Arbitrum Nitro, it achieves low cost and high throughput , suitable for large-scale applications.
Supports multiple FHE solutions : Warp-Drive components allow developers to choose appropriate encryption methods based on specific needs.

Potential Challenges

FHE computing costs are higher : FHE computing is more costly than traditional computing performance, and optimization algorithms and hardware acceleration are the key.
High difficulty in development : FHE is still in its early stages, the developer ecosystem needs to be further matured, and the tool chain needs to be improved.
User experience to be optimized : Fully privacy-protected applications may bring additional complexity in certain scenarios, such as key management and verifiability of privacy computing.

2. Detailed explanation of the project that week

**2.1. Detailed explanation of the operation mechanism of the native

decentralized CDP protocol Beraborrow, which is backed by Berachain 's huge traffic**

Introduction

Beraborrow unlocks instant liquidity based on Berachain assets through the first PoL-backed stablecoin Nectar ($NECT). Beraborrow’s core design philosophy is simplicity and flexibility, aiming to maximize user opportunities without forcing them to sacrifice profits.

This protocol allows users to deposit secured assets into Dens, thereby minting an oversecured stablecoin $NECT. After that, $NECT can be used in the Berachain DeFi ecosystem, unlocking more opportunities while maintaining exposure to original assets. Originally built around $iBGT, the protocol has evolved into a multi-guarantee platform that supports Bera native tokens, liquid staking derivatives or LP positions as a guarantee, minting $NECT.

Beraborrow enables users to retain exposure to their assets while unlocking liquidity. The protocol utilizes Proof of Liquidity (PoL) to enhance key features and direct liquidity, allowing users to gain leverage on secured assets while increasing the benefits they generate.

Technical analysis

1. Dens (Lending and Loaning sector)

Dens is the core of Beraborrow's guarantee management system, providing users with a way to deposit assets, earn income and mint $NECT while maintaining exposure to the original guaranteed assets. This flexibility allows users to unlock liquidity without selling or giving up their positions in valuable assets.

• How Dens works

When users deposit assets into Den, they are actually locking the secured assets into the agreement. This allows users to mint $NECT, an oversecured stablecoin for Beraborrow that can later be used in the Berachain DeFi ecosystem. The amount of $NECT that a user can mint is determined by the minimum guarantee ratio of the asset.

Beraborrow's Dens supports a variety of types of secured assets, including liquid staking tokens such as $iBGT and $iBERA, as well as other whitelisted assets such as LP positions from Bex and Berps. Once the secured asset is deposited, users can still be fully exposed to the price fluctuations of the asset or the gains obtained, allowing them to benefit from the appreciation of the asset.

• Automatic re-investment function

A key innovation in Beraborrow's Dens is the automatic re-investment feature. Dens aims to maximize returns by automatically reinvesting rewards earned from secured assets into the same assets. For example, if you deposit a USDC:HONEY BEX LP position into a Den, the protocol will deposit that LP into the Infrared repository and pledge any obtained $iBGT tokens again.

This automatic reinvestment process increases the number of guaranteed assets over time, allowing users to steadily increase their guarantee ratio without manual intervention, thereby reducing the risk of being liquidated. As secured assets grow, users can lend more $NECT, providing additional liquidity and earning opportunities.

• Brime Den

Brime Den is a protocol-managed reserve pool designed to protect Beraborrow users from the direct effects of $NECT redemption. All redemptions are first processed through this agreement to ensure that the user is not affected initially. Once Brime Den is exhausted, redemption will be done by paying the lowest interest rate Dens.

2. NECT (stablecoin)

Nectar ($NECT) is Berachain's first native secured stablecoin. Beraborrow's goal is to build $NECT into the preferred stablecoin on Berachain, leverage a variety of native guaranteed assets, and will announce more assets soon. $NECT is positioned as the base stablecoin in the Berachain ecosystem, driving growth and innovation across the entire chain. The utility of $NECT is further enhanced through strategic collaboration with key projects within the Berachain ecosystem.

Since the Beraborrow Agreement is a unilateral currency market, borrowers do not have to pay market-leading interest rates. This means interest rates are used to incentivize the growth and stability of $NECT. The main beneficiaries are any LP or protocol that drives $NECT demand. As far as the Beraborrow protocol itself is concerned, this has been achieved through early bootstrapping of liquidity stabilization pools and $NECT-$HONEY LP trading pairs. It can also be a trading protocol that uses $NECT as a quoted asset, a game that trades with $NECT, or just a new token startup that pairs its initial liquidity with $NECT.

This means that $NECT will be temporarily locked or pooled, reducing selling pressure, which also allows Beraborrow to handle more leverage.

3. POLLEN (Governance Token)

POLLEN is a governance token designed to support the stability and growth of the Beraborrow protocol by incentivizing the adoption and liquidity of NECT. POLLEN holders can participate in protocol decision-making and drive governance-driven incentives to enhance the Beraborrow ecosystem.

Initially, incentives focused on liquidity stability pools and stablecoin liquidity. Once the stable exchange system has established sufficient liquidity, the incentive will be redistributed to protocols and use cases that enhance the utility of NECT as a stablecoin, such as a trading protocol that uses NECT as a quotation asset, a game that trades with NECT, or a new token launch, pairing its initial liquidity with NECT.

• Agreement rate allocation

Since Beraborrow has no lenders, all agreement interest income will be allocated to governance-driven initiatives to support ecosystem sustainability:

• Berachain Reward Vault: Governance participants can pledge POLLEN to participate in ecological governance and decision-making, aligning incentives with Beraborrow’s long-term sustainability.
• Protocol Liquidity Plan: Governance participants allocate funds to enhance stablecoin liquidity and ensure the stability of NECT as a decentralized stable asset.

This creates a positive cycle (flywheel effect), i.e., the practicality of NECT is enhanced, attracting more users to use Beraborrow for leverage operations, thereby increasing overall interest rates and agreement fees, and eventually flowing into the sPOLLEN Berachain reward vault, allowing more value to be used to incentivize liquidity, and the cycle continues to strengthen.

• Staking

POLLEN can be pledged to mint sPOLLEN, thereby participating in governance and deeper ecosystem interactions. Pledge does not guarantee financial returns, but can align long-term participants with agreement incentives. Additionally, through the Beraborrow interface, governance participants can guide protocol reward flow to programs that enhance the practicality of NECT in the Berachain ecosystem.

• Bonding

Users can provide liquidity through binding mechanisms, such as sNECT, HONEY-NECT, POLLEN-BERA, or POLLEN-NECT LP tokens in exchange for POLLEN allocations for governance permissions. Binding does not provide financial returns and is designed to support protocol sustainability and extend decentralized liquidity only.

• aPOLLEN

aPOLLEN can be converted to POLLEN 1:1 at TGE (token generation event). It is used as a placeholder token on Arbitrum, because Arbitrum has cross-chain purchase support, allowing us to attract users from multiple chains and ultimately direct them to the Berachain ecosystem.

• cPOLLEN

cPOLLEN can be earned by NECT-related farming or use before TGE and will be redeemed 1:1 on TGE. Among them, some can be collected immediately, and the remaining part will be unlocked in 1 month. At the same time, a light gamification mechanism will be added to reward loyal holders.

Summarize

Relying on the PoL mechanism and the native stablecoin $NECT, Beraborrow has built a decentralized, automatic compounding, efficient liquid lending platform, and empowers community decision-making through governance token POLLEN. Its advantages lie in high capital efficiency, ecological integration, and stablecoin application growth, but there are also potential problems such as relying on Berachain development, liquidity sustainability challenges, and liquidation risks. Future success depends on key factors such as Berachain ecological growth, improvement in adoption of $NECT, and optimization of governance mechanisms.

3. Industry data analysis

1. Overall market performance

1.1 Spot BTC&ETH ETF

Analysis:

During this week, the ETF capital flows between BTC and ETH showed a significant differentiation. Bitcoin ETF rebounded rapidly from capital outflows at the beginning of the week, ushering in a strong net inflow, while Ethereum ETFs were mainly net outflows, although some products experienced a small capital inflow. This difference may reflect that institutional investors are more optimistic about BTC and keep a wait-and-see attitude towards ETH.

Overall, the strong rebound of BTC ETFs shows that market confidence is recovering and institutions are reconfiguring funds to bet on BTC. The continued outflow of funds indicates that the market still has uncertain sentiment about ETH, which may be related to market fluctuations, escalation progress or regulatory policies.

ETF, November 1, ET) Ethereum spot ETF total net outflow of 10.925,600 US dollars

1.2. Spot BTC vs ETH Price Trend

BTC

Analysis

As of Monday this week, BTC quickly fell below the $80,000 mark this morning after a difficult stabilization last week, and then fell below the $80,000 mark, and has temporarily stopped falling near the current low of $76,600. Judging from the short-term selling volume, the selling intensity of this waterfall market is much stronger than the period when the March low was formed. Therefore, the focus of this week is three points. The current first-line support of the $76,600 US dollar. If the continuous decline is a shrinking decline and cannot effectively fall below this point, then the probability of a W bottom opening rebound is relatively high. On the contrary, if the fundamentals continue to deteriorate and fall below the first-line support, focus on the second-line support of US$74,000 (top of the box in 24 years). This area is also likely to become the starting point of the next round of upward trend. As for the largest effective resistance of the rebound, you can still directly look at around US$89,000. Only by effectively breaking through this resistance can the long-term upward trend be expected to open, otherwise there is still a probability of a wide fluctuation.

ETH

Analysis

For ETH, bullish momentum has not exploded effectively, causing the currency price to fall all the way from 2025 to the present, and has even reached US$1,530 (the bottom of the bottoming range in October 2023). Therefore, if an effective rebound cannot be started, the next support point may continue to fall to US$1,350. However, judging from the current selling volume, the trading volume has decreased rapidly, and the support of US$1,530 may form a short-term bottom, while the first resistance level can be directly focused on around US$1,760.

1.3. Panic & Greed Index

2. Public chain data

2.1. BTC Layer 2 Summary

Analysis

Lightning Network formal verification:

A study published this week on arXiv marks important progress. This study provides a rigorous, machine-verified mathematical proof of the security of Lightning Networks through formal methods for the first time. The results show that in all scenarios, Lightning Network can ensure the security of honest user funds. This achievement greatly enhances confidence in LN security and large-scale use.

Stacks ' Nakamoto Upgrade & sBTC Startup: **
**Stacks network launches the long-awaited Nakamoto upgrade. By anchoring its data on the Bitcoin main chain, the upgrade not only enhances security and finality, but also paves the way for innovative applications. A highlight of the upgrade is the launch of sBTC (decentralized asset anchored by Bitcoin), aiming to activate the capital efficiency of BTC and empower more application scenarios.

Rootstock (RSK) continues to grow: **
**Rootstock is a sidechain system that introduces smart contract capabilities into Bitcoin, relying on merged mining to share the hash power of the Bitcoin main chain. This week, Rootstock continues to enhance system performance, support its expanding decentralized application ecosystem, and provides richer off-chain interaction functions while ensuring transaction security.

2.2. EVM &non-EVM Layer 1 Summary

Analysis

EVM compatible with Layer1 network dynamics

Kadena launches Chainweb EVM:

• On April 3, Kadena officially launched Chainweb EVM, integrating 20 new EVM-compatible chains as part of its multi-chain architecture.
• The system focuses on ultra-low Gas fees, unlimited expansion capabilities and high-performance proof of work (PoW), and improves block processing speed and ability to cope with surges in traffic through native parallelization technology.
• Kadena claims to be a decentralized alternative to Ethereum Layer 2, attracting hundreds of developers to participate (partially through ETHDenver's early access program).
• Meanwhile, Kadena announced that it will provide a $50 million ecological support fund to support projects in RWA (real asset tokenization), AI and other innovation directions.

Breakthroughs in parallel execution of Ethereum:

• An academic study released on April 2 proposed a parallel transaction execution model for EVMs, aiming to solve the performance bottlenecks caused by current sequential execution.

Non-EVM/Hybrid Architecture Layer 1 Network Dynamics

Shardeum mainnet is about to be launched:

• Shardeum is known as the world's first automatic expansion blockchain, and its main network has been confirmed to be launched on April 15, 2025.
• It is based on a dynamic state sharding mechanism, combined with support from more than 170,000 validators and 81 million test transactions, achieving a new balance between decentralization, security and throughput.
• Although EVM is supported, Shardeum's automatic scaling mechanism classifies it as a new generation of Layer 1 solutions.

SKALE promotes the expansion of the Gas-free model ecosystem:

• SKALE continues to drive developers to enter with a "zero Gas" experience, especially in gaming, DeFi and AI applications.
• In addition to technology optimization, SKALE is also expanding incentive programs to further improve the developer infrastructure of its Layer 1 network.

2.3. EVM Layer 2 Summary

Analysis

Optimism Upgrade

• Protocol Improvement: Optimism announced an upgrade focusing on optimizing its Rollup architecture, further reducing transaction fees and increasing throughput.
• Security enhancement: New consensus mechanisms have been introduced to enhance the security of the network and make it more resistant to potential attacks.

Arbitrum Development Kit Update

• Simplify the integration process: Arbitrum has released a new development toolkit that simplifies the deployment process of smart contracts and DApps, aiming to lower the barriers to entry for new projects.
• Gas cost optimization: The toolkit contains updates to gas cost optimization, which is expected to attract more developers to use.

zkSync Upgrade

• Privacy and efficiency improvement: zkSync has updated its zero-knowledge Rollup, improving privacy protection functions, and optimizing transaction processing efficiency.
• Developer Support Enhancement: Improved documentation and developer support tools are also released to promote ecosystem development.

StarkNet Progress

• Focus on scalability: While StarkNet uses unique Rollup technology, it continues to advance its scalability roadmap this week, with performance benchmarks showing significant improvements in throughput and reduced gas costs.
• Enhanced EVM compatibility: Interoperability with EVM systems is being promoted to enable smoother cross-chain integration.

4. Macro data review and key data release nodes next week

In March, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from 4.1% in February, slightly higher than market expectations of 4.1%. Despite the rising unemployment rate, the number of new non-farm jobs increased by 228,000 in March, far higher than expected 140,000 and up from 117,000 in February. The number of unemployed people increased by 31,000 to the total to 7.08 million, while the number of employed people increased by 201,000 to the total to 163,51 million. The labor participation rate also rose slightly from 62.4% to 62.5%.

This week (April 7-April 11) important macro data nodes include:

April 10: The United States has not adjusted its annual CPI rate in March

V. Regulatory policy

USA

数字资产去监管化： 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔琳娜·格奥尔基耶娃对特朗普政府在数字资产去监管方面的初步措施表示乐观，目的是在监管和创新之间找到平衡。

Brazil

薪资支付比特币： 巴西通过了一项法律，允许员工以比特币支付部分工资，旨在现代化金融基础设施并为工人提供更多灵活性。

Pakistan

加密货币委员会成立： 巴基斯坦成立了“巴基斯坦加密货币委员会”，旨在规范并促进该国加密货币市场，推动通过更快捷、更便宜的国际交易增强汇款效率。

迪拜（阿联酋）

房地产代币化试点： 迪拜启动了房地产产权代币化试点项目，旨在革命化房地产交易，预计到2033年该市场将达到160亿美元。

South Korea

打击未注册交易所： 韩国金融情报分析单位（FIU）针对未注册的海外加密货币交易所（包括BitMEX和KuCoin）展开了打击行动，推动遵守国内监管规定。

Australia

即将出台的监管框架： 澳大利亚政府宣布计划在2025年引入加密货币监管框架，旨在增强消费者保护，并解决主要银行的去银行化问题。

国际货币基金组织（IMF）

将加密货币纳入经济统计： IMF更新了《国际收支手册》，将加密货币分类为“非生产性的非金融资产”，将数字资产纳入全球经济统计。