February 2025 Crypto Market Fission Revelation: Pessimists are always right, and optimists are always moving forward

Author: Revc, Golden Finance

Game and fission in the crypto market in February 2025

The crypto market after Trump's second election is not only a carnival for policy dividends, but also a test field for endogenous risks. With the implementation of key economic data in February 2025, the adjustment of regulatory frameworks and the acceleration of technological iteration, the market continues to fluctuate amid the tension of "optimists move forward" and "pessimist warning". This article analyzes the current market trends from a multi-dimensional perspective and explores its deep logic.

**1. Policy shift: the struggle between liberalization commitment and

implementation risks**

Optimists narrative: Trump administration's "crypto ideal country" policy is advancing rapidly, SEC chairman Gary Gensler resigns, Bitcoin ETF has accumulated assets under management exceeding 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), US Bit The currency reserve plan is being legislated in Texas and Pennsylvania, with the price of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000.

Pessimists question: The national Bitcoin reserve plan faces high volatility risks, and the federal deficit reaches $1.8 trillion, the coordinated resistance between Congress and the Federal Reserve may trigger a policy implementation fault.

New news in February:

- SEC turns to "guided regulation": new chairman Paul Atkins pushes the top ten priorities of the cryptocurrency working group, clarifying the attributes of token securities and exploring compliance paths, but emphasizes cracking down on fraud.

- FIT21 bill advances: If the Senate passes, the SEC and CFTC regulatory boundaries will be divided, but Republican lawmaker Cynthia Rumis warned that "the bill needs to balance innovation and investor protection."

2. Meme coin craze: political tokenization and bubble risk

Optimist logic: Trump's Meme currency TRUMP market value once exceeded US$15 billion, and Solana's on-chain trading volume surged (100 million active addresses), attracting retail investors to enter the market and expanding the user base.

Pessimists are cold-eyed: TRUMP coin plummeted 60% after it was launched, Melania coin diverted funds, former Coinbase CTO denounced it as a "zero-sum lottery", and industry leaders warned that the bubble burst or repeat the FTX-style trust collapse.

February data verification:

- The proportion of meme currency transactions has increased: accounting for 11% of the trading volume of the top 300 crypto assets (excluding stablecoins), but speculative causes intensification of market volatility, with the 24-hour liquidation amount reaching US$346 million.

- WLFI asset allocation dispute: WLFI transfers US$307 million to Coinbase Prime, increasing its holdings in ETH and WBTC to hedge volatility, but the token swap protocol is questioned to use political influence to lock in liquidity.

**3. Macroeconomic linkage: The double impact of non-agricultural data

and debt crisis**

Optimists look forward to: In January 2025, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 143,000, lower than the expected 169,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4%. One hour after the non-farm employment data was disclosed, Bitcoin returned to around $100,000, but due to inflation concerns and tariff threats, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively overnight, and Bitcoin fell to around $96,000.

Trump said when meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that "reciprocal tariffs" measures will be announced next week, which may escalate the trade war. Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide, noted that the market initially focused on non-farm employment data, but Trump's tariff statement became the new focus. Despite slowing employment growth, low unemployment may keep the Fed from keeping interest rates unchanged, and the market is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.

Pessimists warn: US Treasury bonds exceed $36 trillion, and debt ratings are facing the risk of downgrading. If the US debt crisis triggers global liquidity tightening, the crypto market may collapse simultaneously with risky assets.

February market resilience test:

- The hegemony game of US dollar: The US dollar index rose to 108, and the Bitcoin "digital gold" narrative strengthened, but WLFI sold out some ETH to lock in profits, exposing short-term speculative attributes.

- Fed policy contradiction: The Trump administration attempts to stimulate the economy by managing the 10-year Treasury bond yield, conflicting with the Fed's independence and exacerbating market uncertainty.

**4. Technology-driven and bubble worry: Ethereum upgrade vs. VC

valuation is inflated**

Optimists cheer: The Ethereum Pectra upgrade (expected Q1-Q2 in 2025) is designed to comprehensively improve Ethereum's performance and user experience. This upgrade will focus on improving account abstraction, simplifying private key management and achieving more diversified transaction functions; enhancing L2 compatibility, reducing transaction costs and improving efficiency; optimizing the staking mechanism, reducing participation thresholds and improving ETH liquidity; improving EVM Performance, enhance the security of smart contracts; and improve light client support and improve network decentralization. The goal of Pectra upgrade is to make Ethereum easier to use, cheaper and safer, thereby accelerating its massive adoption and cementing its leadership in the smart contract platform.

Pessimists examine: The valuation of new public chains such as TON and SUI is inflated (SUI FDV reaches US$54 billion), the competition for homogeneous altcoins exposed weak innovation, the RWA project Plume Network promised $4.5 billion before it went online, but TVL only has 64 million Dollar.

February Technological Milestones:

- Frax L2 is launched: Fraxtal supports frxETH and FRAX as Gas tokens, and Curve Finance and other leading protocols, but it is doubtful whether it can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in the first month.

- EigenLayer re-pled boom: TVL has exceeded US$12.1 billion, but the 33% pledge ceiling has caused centralized concerns, and airdrop incentives may intensify short-term speculation.

**5. Supervision and international game: decentralized ideals vs.

political manipulation of reality**

Optimists’ Vision: EU MiCA Framework is in effect, global regulatory convergence promotes the process of compliance.

Pessimists revealed: The WLFI project lost tens of millions of dollars, and the Trump family was accused of "using political influence to cut leeks", and decentralization became a vassal of power.

Geo-risks in February:

- Trump's territorial dispute: Radical issues such as the "American Gulf" have raised, which has caused tension in the international situation, and the crypto market's long orders have been liquidated by US$282 million in 24 hours.

- CBDC confrontation escalates: Trump firmly resists the digital dollar, while China accelerates the promotion of the digital RMB, and the risk of separating the global payment system has increased.

**Conclusion: Reshape the value of the industry between fanaticism and

soberness**

The "Trump Era" of the crypto market is a prism that reflects the complex entanglement of political power, capital game and technological innovation. Pessimists see the recurrence of policy repetition, Meme coin bubble and debt crisis; optimists embrace the dividends of institutional entry, Ethereum upgrade and global funding expansion.

Historical experience warns: The real winners in the market need to be dynamically balanced between two perspectives

1. Get rid of "Trump dependence": policy unsustainability is significant (the president's commitment fulfillment rate is only 31%), and the industry needs to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to building endogenous value of technology.

2. Resist the "crypto giant baby mentality": WLFI floating losses and VC bubbles reveal that excessive reliance on external dividends will weaken the anti-cyclical ability, and only infrastructure and application layer innovation can travel through bull and bear.

If the crypto industry can take this opportunity to consolidate its technical foundation during the policy relaxation period and remain sober in fanatical speculation, only then can it nurture the real miracle of crypto civilization in the bumpy situation.