The cryptocurrency era is on, uncertainty surges, look at these 13 reference suggestions

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author｜Wenser

Overnight, the trend of bull and bear is different.

As Trump speaks again, the U.S. stock market and crypto market, which have experienced trillions of dollars, have begun their own price recovery journey. Despite this, it is still rare for us to come to the conclusion that we have returned to the bull market. Many people call the current market the "monkey market" because of Trump's position on both ends and repeated jumping remarks

• they can jump up and down and perform back and forth because of a person or a single message.

In view of this, the author will briefly sort out the current stage of the market and the subsequent breakthrough direction of the cryptocurrency industry from a personal perspective, and discuss and communicate with readers and friends. Note: Some of the content of this article was inspired by Azuma (@azuma_eth), the author of Odaily Planet Daily. I would like to express my gratitude here.

The sign of the opening of the era of cryptocurrence: Trump takes office

after the US debt scale exceeds 36 trillion

1. In February 2024, the total U.S. federal government debt increased to $34.4 trillion; as of March 6, 2025, this figure increased to $36.56 trillion. Compared with the $35.8 trillion in January 2025, it has increased by $0.76 trillion in just a few months.

Many people may not have a clear concept of this number, but using the overall market value of the cryptocurrency industry as a comparison will give you a more intuitive feeling - as of the time of writing, according to Coingecko data, the total market value of the cryptocurrency industry is about US$2.7 trillion. In other words, the current scale of US bonds is about 13.5 times the total market value of cryptocurrencies.

Such a huge scale of government bonds is the focus of Trump's attention in addition to economic development, international relations, and political hegemony during his second term.

With the efforts of Trump himself, who ruled the brain by his businessman's thinking and the "Internet celebrity government team" around him, although the cryptocurrency industry ushered in a friendly regulatory period, it inevitably entered a "era of chaos" - that is, it must face and accept the strong-armed political situation of US President Trump's "one-touching" on the crypto market and even the global economy.

This is also an unexpected thing after the political celebrity coin issuance farce that started by Trump's official Meme coin TRUMP.

Every crypto player must switch their trading operations more frequently, and do not attempt to fully understand Trump's ideas, but grasp the impact of speech, news, and news on the market trends.

2. Based on the logic of the continued existence of US debt, the only proven effective base for RWA (real-world assets) and the so-called RWAFi are US debt.

The fixed income support behind it is mainly due to the current dollar-denomination system in the cryptocurrency market and the guarantee of the political and military power of the authoritarian government of the United States.

3. In such a turbulent and changing market, a way of thinking that crypto players must master is the ripple thinking path. Consider something as an inducing factor, it will gradually spread like a stone thrown into the water surface, and the corresponding characters/assets/markets/tokens/projects/ecology will be affected by the gradually spreading water ripples. Including the previous case experience of Hyperliquid's decentralized trust crisis due to the JELLYJELLY short order incident, it is also a very intuitive case experience. If you can do this, it is necessary to encrypt players to develop good thinking habits and information acumen. My personal suggestion is to draw more circle pictures, which is very helpful for improving conduction thinking.

Invisible replacement of encrypted protagonists: migration from VC to

KOL, liquid attention is more important

4. Compared with the previous cycles, this bull market cycle that started in 2023 has more thoroughly disgraced VC institutions. But at present, there is no intuitive saying of good or bad in this trend.

The reason is that the crypto cycle with VC as the dominant force, VC institutions have the ability to build momentum and can quickly "ripen" one or several mainstream concepts in the short term through capital, narrative, etc., and then concentrate on encrypting the main liquidity in the crypto industry, and quickly realize the full process life cycle of the project's "starting up - operational growth - TGE coin issuance - secondary circulation". At that time, the last stop of many projects was the CEX Exchange.

After the "high FDV, low circulation" VC disk was gradually replaced by the so-called "Fair Launch" inscriptions, community disks, and Meme coins, the market's attention was further diluted and fragmented. KOL (broadly speaking, refers to all people who can affect market sentiment and market user concerns in the short term) has become a distribution center for market attention and market liquidity. At this time, the crypto market no longer had the patience of "sharking a sword for a few years". Countless people returned to the chain and started a passionate PVP game. This is also why the so-called "KOL encryption cycle" is poured into more and more plates, and the chain is running faster and faster. Because after the launch of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF, the incremental funds are extremely limited, and the existing funds can only engage in zero-sum games. In the market, it is a bloody game of comparing who can run faster, and everyone is afraid to become the last buyer. Because this means that the result of maximum losses is to be paid by yourself.

Therefore, what everyone knows is that entering the crypto market in 2025, especially after the infamous Meme coins such as TRUMP, MELANIA, and LIBRA, the crypto people are playing the game of "Bizzard" by passing flowers" in a row after a new entry player.

5. In view of this, most people have to accept the rules of the game set by the market in a subtle way - stop losses in time and do not take long-term results. The ultimate trading purpose is still BTC or deposit capital in the exchange.

6. From the perspective of new players, the Solana ecosystem is currently more attractive. Although this attraction will shift with the emergence of the wealth-making effect, compared with this, EVM ecosystems such as the Ethereum ecosystem are becoming increasingly weaker for new players. Including the Base ecosystem, which has been calling for "large-scale adoption of consumers", it is difficult to hide the decline when Friend.tech is approaching shutdown, Farcaster's high financing rate, Meme currency ecosystem is making small moves, and the entire ecosystem is highly dependent on transaction volume to survive.

Potential engines leading the next bull market: medium-return earnings

products

7. Based on the above situation, as cryptocurrencies are increasingly connected with the US stock market and the US economy and the US economy, cryptocurrency coverage is gradually approaching the global peak, the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies has reached a half-way level to some extent. Although the total market value of cryptocurrencies is still below $3 trillion, it is undeniable that asset management institutions and giants that are in charge of hundreds of billions or even larger amounts of funds have set their sights on the cryptocurrency market.

In terms of risk preference and investment purpose, unlike retail investors with small capital volume or high plurality and high risk in order to fight for high plurality, large-scale funds in institutions may prefer stablecoin interest-generating products. Relevant decision makers are more willing to exchange derivative stablecoins for anti-inflation or value-added returns. This is also an important reason why PayFi, DeFi re-pled, and RWA tracks have attracted more attention and even bets in this round of cycles.

For many institutions, they need to find a balance between the interest rate of traditional financial deposits and the high returns of cryptocurrencies -above the 2%-3% interest rate of regular deposits, but under the crypto projects' yield rate of 20%, I personally believe that 6%-12% may be a relatively suitable yield range (for example, the USDC deposit rate open by Coinbase is up to 12%).

8. For ordinary retail investors, since they do not have large amounts of funds, they can participate in similar on-chain projects or encrypted lending platforms through the idea of ​​"swipe interaction", that is, dispersing positions, hedging risks, liquidity mining, and "collection" regularly (generally recommended for about 1-2 weeks). On the premise of ensuring the safety of the principal, they can obtain platform points or airdrop returns in exchange for more profits.

Of course, the premise of doing this is that unreliable products and unreliable investment teams will never play.

9. As for specific products, you can screen related projects in Solana ecology, ETH ecology, and Sui ecology to make a corresponding balance between few people knowing and considerable returns.

Be a sober person in a mixed market: identifying people and institutions

worth following:

10. For most people in the market, including you and me, following strategies are still the only choice. In this regard, the specific list of individuals and institutions recommended by Teacher Azuma is as follows:

• Coinbase CEO Brian Amstrong;
• BitMEX Arthur Hayes;
• Trader Eugene (Tangent Capital);
• Multicoin Capital (Solana ecosystem deeply binds players, mainly referring to its non-Solana ecological investment or order target);
• Polychain; Dragonfly; Pentera (BTC ultra-early buying capital institution) and Coinbase Ventures.

In addition, I personally believe that some institutions have no logic in their investments and belong to the wide net type. They have enjoyed the convenience of trends or ecological niche advantages before. Their investment operations are not only not used as reference, but should be regarded as anti-references, such as a16z (a well-known Web2 capital institution, which has previously used Web3 narrative to create a local bull market in 2021-2022H1. The investment style is a flood of money and attaches great importance to the KOL-style CX capabilities of asset management personnel. The return rate mainly depends on luck or probability); Yzi labs (formerly Binance Labs, CZ myself personally admitted that 80% of investments are lost. You should know that this is an important part of the Binance system. I personally believe that its success rate does not match its position in the industry).

11. Another indicator to determine whether a project or product is reliable is its official website. If it is a shell or a very rough UI, it is better to put out the idea of ​​giving money to scammers to do charity as soon as possible. Don’t donate to high-risk potential Rug projects in vain, just like ZKasino in the past.

12. A new bull market or cycle will definitely come, and the dealer will most likely choose to speculate on new things rather than old things. The existing "old coins" represented by AI agent concept tokens are likely to only expect a stop loss rebound, and it is difficult to reach the level of a stop-profit rebound. You can judge the selling position at your own discretion.

13. After the emergence of AI, the importance of applications has been infinitely increased, because technology is relatively no longer a shackle that traps countless crypto projects, but a tool that allows many people to achieve "what you think is what you get". No matter what product it is, it ultimately needs to use applications to reach a wider range of people. We must pay attention to popular applications in the traditional AI field, which may contain the opportunity for the cryptocurrency industry to explode again.